Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

作     者：Gill M.MARTIN Amulya CHEVUTURI Ruth E.COMER Nick J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Daquan ZHANG 

作者机构：Met Office Hadley Centre Met Office NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology University of Reading College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter University Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第36卷第3期

页      面：253-260,339页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0702[理学-物理学] 

基　　金：supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078) 

主　　题：SCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon EASM East Asian summer monsoon 

摘      要：Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.