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Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 365-378页

作者： Xuezhen ZHANG Fahao WANG Weidong LU Shicheng LI jingyun zheng Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Faculty of Geographic Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Center for Historical Geographical Studies Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Department of Land Resource Management School of Public AdministrationChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Using modern census and environmental factor data,this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression ***,with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians,gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC,hereafter)were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to *** the reconstruction dataset,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were *** results showed that(1)the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation,slope,relief amplitude,distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals,distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index.(2)Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the abovementioned environmental factor data,a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was *** determination coefficient(R^(2))is *** 88.4%of the counties(districts),the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%.(3)From 1776 to 1953,the total population in the study area showed an *** to 1851,the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River *** this period,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 292 to *** 1851 to 1953,the population increased extensively across the study *** the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35,*** spatial clustering pattern of the popula

关键词： Population Traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC) Historical periods Gridded reconstruction

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Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2002年第21期47卷 1826-1831页

作者： zheng jingyun GE Quansheng HAO Zhixin Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (i) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ii) The geographical distribution model between

关键词： climate warming phenophase change impact pheno-phase response to climate change China.

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Unprecedented Warming Revealed from Multi-proxy Reconstruction of Temperature in Southern China for the Past 160 Years

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第8期34卷 977-982页

作者： Yang LIU jingyun zheng Zhixin HAO Xuezhen ZHANG Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Using the southern limit of snowfall recorded in Chinese documents, chronologies of tree-ring width, and tree-ring stable oxygen isotope（δ^（18）O）, the annual temperature anomaly in southern China during 1850–2009 is reconstructed using the method of signal decomposition and synthesis. The results show that the linear trend was 0.47℃（100 yr）^（-1）over 1871–2009,and the two most rapid warming intervals occurred in 1877–1938 and 1968–2007, at rates of 0.125℃（10 yr）^（-1）and 0.258℃（10 yr）^（-1）, respectively. The decadal variation shows that the temperature in the moderate warm interval of the 1910s–1930s was notably lower than that of the 1980s–2000s, which suggests that the warming since the 1980s was unprecedented for the past 160 years, though a warming hiatus existed in the 2000s. Additionally, there was a rapid cooling starting from the 1860s,followed by a cold interval until the early 1890s, with the coldest years in 1892 and 1893. A slight temperature decline was also found from the 1940s to the late 1960s. This study provides an independent case to validate the global warming for the past 160 years and its hiatus recently, because the proxy data are not affected by urbanization.

关键词： centennial warming temperature reconstruction multi-proxy southern China

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The summer standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEl)dataset for six European regions over the past millennium reconstructed by tree-ring chronologies

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Big Earth Data 2023年第4期7卷 1146-1168页

作者： Liang Zhang Yang Liu jingyun zheng Zhixin Hao Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

Accurate reconstructed series are crucial for studying the differences in regional hydroclimatic variations in Europe over the past *** hierarchical clustering analysis and stepwise regression methods,we reconstructed yearly time series of the summer standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEl)for six European regions over the past *** analysis also revealed prominent regional hydroclimatic differences in multidecadal signals over the past 500 *** instance,in the 1500s-1570s(from the beginning of the 1500s to the end of the 1570s),drying trends were observed in northern and southeastern Europe,whereas southwestern Europe experienced a wetting ***,drying trends were observed in northern and central Europe in the ***,wetting trends were observed in western and central Europe during the 1830s-1850s,with drying trends in northern and southeastern ***,the hydroclimatic variations in most European regions showed drying trends in the 1920s-1950s,especially in southern *** utilizing large amounts of tree-ring samples and directly comparing regional hydroclimatic variations,our reconstructions provide a consistent and comprehensive dataset for further *** reconstructed dataset is available at https://***/10.57760/sciencedb.07215.

关键词： Europe hydroclimatic variations regional reconstruction tree-ring chronologies past millennium

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Rates of temperature change in China during the past 2000 years

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第11期54卷 1627-1634页

作者： GE QuanSheng ZHANG XueZhen HAO ZhiXin zheng jingyun Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

Using 24 proxy temperature series, the rates of temperature change in China are analyzed at the 30- to 100-year scales for the past 2000 years and at the 10-year scale for the past 500 years. The results show that, at the 100-year scale, the warming rate for the whole of China in the 20th century was only 0.6±1.6℃/100 a （interval at the 95% confidence level, which is used here- after）, while the peak warming rate for the period from the Little Ice Age （LIA） to the 20th century reached 1.1_＋1.2~C/100 a, which was the greatest in the past 500 years and probably the past 2000 years. At the 30-year scale, warming in the 20th century was quite notable, but the peak rate was still less than rates for previous periods, such as the rapid warming from the LIA to the 20th century and from the 270s-290s to 300s-320s. At the 10-year scale, the warming in the late 20th century was very evident, but it might not be unusual in the context of warming over the past 500 years. The exact timing, duration and magnitude of the warming peaks varied from region to region at all scales. The peak rates of the 100-year scale warming in the AD 180s-350s in northeastern China as well as those in the 260s-410s and 500s-660s in Tibet were all greater than those from the mid-19th to 20th century. Meanwhile, the rates of the most rapid cooling at scales of 30 to 100 years in the LIA were promi-nent, but they were also not unprecedented in the last 2000 years. At the 10-year scale, for the whole of China, the most rapid decadal cooling in the 20th century was from the 1940s to 1950s with a rate of -0.3±0.6℃/10 a, which was similar to rates for periods before the 20th century. For all regions, the rates of most rapid cooling in the 20th century were all less than those for previous periods.

关键词： China past 2000 years rates of temperature change

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Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第12期48卷 2182-2193页

作者： zheng jingyun HAO Zhixin GE Quansheng Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

The precipitation at 17 stations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is reconstructed during the period of 1736―1910, using the snow and rainfall records in the Qing Dynasty, together with the instrumental observation data of precipitation and farmland soil moisture content. The soil physics model related to rainfall infiltration and the surface water bal-ance equation are taken as main reconstruction methodology. The field infiltration experiment by artificial rainfall is conducted to check the reliability. And the precipitation series over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its 4 sub-regions are established, going back to 1736. Analysis of the time series indicates that the abrupt change of precipitation from high to low oc-curs around 1915 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. During the three peri-ods of 1791―1805, 1816―1830 and 1886―1895, the precipitation is markedly higher than the mean of the series. While both the periods of 1916―1945 and 1981―2000 are characterized by less precipitation. Three periodicities of 22―25a, 3.9a and 2.7a are shown in the precipitation fluctuation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Moreover, the periodical signal of 22―25a becomes weaker and weaker since the abrupt change of 1915 and disappears in the late 1940s, and then the periodical signal of 35―40a appears instead.

关键词： variation, precipitation, last 300 years, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, snow and rainfall archive in the Qing Dynasty.

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Risk Identification of Seismic Landslides by Joint Newmark and RockFall Analyst Models: A Case Study of Roads Affected by the Jiuzhaigou Earthquake

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第3期9卷 392-406页

作者： Xiliu Yue Shaohong Wu Yunhe Yin Jiangbo Gao jingyun zheng Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Geological disasters are a great threat to people's lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new methods for such evaluation is much needed. In this study, the authors have developed a joint procedure that couples the Newmark model and the RockFall Analyst model based on a GIS platform in order to identify the impact of seismic landslides on roads. The new method effectively combines two processes—seismic landslide occurrence probability analysis and mass movement trajectory simulation. The permanent displacement derived from the Newmark model is used to identify potential source areas of *** on the RockFall Analyst model, the possible impact of mass movement on the roads can be simulated. To verify the reliability of the method, the landslides induced by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake were taken as a case *** results suggest that about 21.37% of the study area is at high risk of seismic landslides, and approximately 3.95 km of road sections are at extremely high risk of large landslides. The simulated area is consistent with the distribution of disasters revealed by post-earthquake remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in existing studies. This indicates that the procedure, which joins the Newmark and RockFall models, has a high reliability for risk identification and can be applied to seismic landslide risk assessment and prediction in similar areas.

关键词： China Jiuzhaigou earthquake Newmark model Risk identification RockFall analyst model Seismic landslide

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Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第1期53卷 107-114页

作者： GE QuanSheng GUO XiFeng zheng jingyun HAO ZhiXin Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

"Yu Xue Fen Cun" records during the Qing Dynasty are used to identify the starting and ending dates of Meiyu at the period of 1736―1911. These results, along with the instrumental meteorological records, are used to reconstruct the series of length and precipitation of Meiyu during 1736―2000 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The characteristics of Meiyu are analyzed since 1736. Moreover, the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon and locations of rainband are discussed, based on the relationship between the length of Meiyu and the Index of East Asian Summer Monsoon. It is found that the starting and ending dates and the length of Meiyu have significant interannual and in-terdecadal variations. Apart from 7―8 years, 20―30 years and 40 years cycles for the lengths of Meiyu, the centennial oscillation is also presented. The length of Meiyu, monsoon rainband movement over eastern China, and the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have a very good correlation, which can be expressed in the following: during the periods of 1736―1770, 1821―1870 and 1921―1970, the EASM was stronger, and the monsoon rainband was located in North China and South China easily, corresponding to the decreased length of Meiyu. Whereas during the periods of 1771―1820, 1871―1920 and 1971―2000, the EASM was weaker and monsoon rainband usually stopped at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the increased length of Meiyu.

关键词：中国长江流域梅雨季风

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Reconstructing temperature change in Central East China during 601-920 AD

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第34期55卷 3944-3949页

作者： GE QuanSheng LIU HaoLong zheng jingyun ZHANG XueZhen Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

Using historical records on first and last frost and snow,spring cultivation,David peach blossom,autumn crop harvest,grade of sea freeze and change in northern citrus boundary,we reconstructed temperature change during 601-920 *** mean temperature of the winter half-year(October to April)over Central East China during this period was about-0.22°C higher than that of the present(1961-2000 AD mean).During 601-820 AD,mean temperature was about-0.52°C higher than the *** 821-920 AD,the mean temperature was 0.42°C lower than the *** temperature fluctuations were characterized by a maximum amplitude of 1.05°C at the centennial scale,1.38°C at the 50-year scale,2.02°C at the 30-year scale,and 2.3°C at the 20-year *** were four peaks warmer than today(601-620 AD,mean of 1°C higher temperature;641-660 AD,1.44°C;701-720 AD,0.88°C;781-800 AD,0.65°C).Three cold periods were in 741-760,821-840,and 881-900 AD,the mean temperature of which was 0.37-0.87°C lower than the present.

关键词：温度变化中国平均温度广告春季栽培作物收获历史记录海域界线

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Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第8期34卷 941-951页

作者： Quansheng GE Haolong LIU Xiang MA jingyun zheng Zhixin HAO Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃（100 yr）^（-1）; however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern： dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

关键词： temperature change dry-wet spatial pattern cold and warm periods last 2000 years China

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