Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

作     者：Xuezhen ZHANG Fahao WANG Weidong LU Shicheng LI Jingyun ZHENG Xuezhen ZHANG;Fahao WANG;Weidong LU;Shicheng LI;Jingyun ZHENG

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and SimulationInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Faculty of Geographic SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Center for Historical Geographical StudiesFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Department of Land Resource ManagementSchool of Public AdministrationChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第65卷第2期

页      面：365-378页

核心收录：

学科分类：0303[法学-社会学] 03[法学] 030302[法学-人口学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19040101) the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603301) 

主　　题：Population Traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC) Historical periods Gridded reconstruction 

摘      要：Using modern census and environmental factor data,this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression ***,with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians,gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC,hereafter)were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to *** the reconstruction dataset,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were *** results showed that(1)the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation,slope,relief amplitude,distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals,distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index.(2)Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the abovementioned environmental factor data,a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was *** determination coefficient(R^(2))is *** 88.4%of the counties(districts),the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%.(3)From 1776 to 1953,the total population in the study area showed an *** to 1851,the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River *** this period,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 292 to *** 1851 to 1953,the population increased extensively across the study *** the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km^(2) increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35,*** spatial clustering pattern of the popula