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Understanding and improving Yangtze River Basin summer precipitation prediction using an optimal multi-Physics ensemble

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第1期18卷 256-277页

作者： Yang ZHAO Fengxue QIAO xin-zhong liang Jinhua YU Climate Environment and Sustainability CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME)(Ministry of Education)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

This study employs the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model(CWRF)to first investigate the primary physical mechanisms causing biases in simulating summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),and then enhance its predictive ability through an optimal multi-physics ensemble *** CWRF 30-km simulations in China are compared among 28 combinations of varying physics parameterizations during 1980−***-term average summer biases in YRB precipitation are remotely correlated with those of large-scale *** teleconnections of biases are highly consistent with the observed correlation patterns between interannual variations of precipitation and circulations,despite minor shifts in their primary action *** YRB precipitation aligns with a southward shifted East Asian westerly jet,an intensified low-level southerly flow south of YRB,and a south-eastward shifted South Asian high,alongside higher moisture availability over ***,decreased YRB precipitation corresponds to an opposite circulation *** CWRF control configuration using the ensemble cumulus parameterization(ECP),compared to other cumulus schemes,best captures the observed YRB precipitation characteristics and associated circulation *** ECP with the Morrison or Morrison-aerosol microphysics and the CCCMA or CAML radiation schemes enhances the overall CWRF *** to the control CWRF,the ensemble average of these skill-enhanced physics configurations more accurately reproduces YRB summer precipitation’s spatial distributions,interannual anomalies,and associated circulation *** Bayesian Joint Probability calibration to these configurations improves the ensemble’s spatial distributions but compromises its interannual anomalies and teleconnection *** findings highlight substantial potential for refining the representation of climate system physics to improve YRB precipitation *** is notabl

关键词： physics parameterization regional climate model downscaling skill enhancement multi-physics ensemble teleconnection bias reduction

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Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2014年第4期8卷 457-471页

作者： Shuyan LIU xin-zhong liang Wei GAO Thomas J. STOHLGREN Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Colorado State University Fort Collins CO 80523 USA Fort Collins Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins CO 80526 USA

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model （hereafter GCM-based models） and a downscaled Regional Climate Model （hereafter, RCM-based models）. We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present （1990-1999） to the future （2046- 2055）. RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM- based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa （Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk）, GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

关键词： climate change species distribution model,Maxent downscaling

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Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR) Ensemble Modeling System: Overall Accuracy and Efficiency

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第4期30卷 955-973页

作者： Feng ZHANG xin-zhong liang 曾庆存 Yu GU Shenjian SU Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College ParkMD 20740 USA International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland College ParkMD 20740 USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering University of CaliforniaLos Angeles CA 90095-1565 USA

The Cloud Aerosol- Radiation （CAR） ensemble modeling system has recently been built to better un- derstand cloud/aerosol/radiation processes and determine the uncertainties caused by different treatments of cloud/aerosol/radiation in climate models. The CAR system comprises a large scheme collection of cloud, aerosol, and radiation processes available in the literature, including those commonly used by the world＇s leading GCMs. In this study, detailed analyses of the overall accuracy and efficiency of the CAR system were performed. Despite the different observations used, the overall accuracies of the CAR ensemble means were found to be very good for both shortwave （SW） and longwave （LW） radiation calculations. Taking tile percentage errors for July 2004 compared to ISCCP （International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project） data over （60~N, 60~S） as an example, even among the 448 CAR members selected here, those errors of the CAR ensemble means were only about -0.67% （-0.6 W m-2） and -0.82% （-2.0 W m-2） for SW and LW upward fluxes at the top of atmosphere, and 0.06% （0.1 W m-2） and -2.12% （-7.8 W m 2） for SW and LW downward fluxes at the surface, respectively. Furthermore, model SW frequency distributions in July 2004 covered the observational ranges entirely, with ensemble means located in the middle of the ranges. Moreover, it was found that the accuracy of radiative transfer calculations can be significantly enhanced by＂ using certain combinations of cloud schemes for the cloud cover fraction, particle effective size, water path, and optical properties, along with better explicit treatments for unresolved cloud structures.

关键词： cloud radiative forcing radiation CAR ensemble

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High-resolution Simulation of an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in Shanghai Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第1期38卷 98-115页

作者： Rui WANG Yiting ZHU Fengxue QIAO xin-zhong liang Han ZHANG Yang DING Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of EducationEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Institute of Eco-Chongming Shanghai 200062China College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric&Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of MarylandCollege ParkMaryland 20742USA Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory Shanghai 200030China

In this study,an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model,with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer(PBL)physics using double nesting with large grid ratios(15:1 and 9:1).The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes:the Yonsei University Scheme,the Mellor−Yamada−Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5(MYNN)scheme,and the Mellor−Yamada−Janjic *** PBL effects on boundary layer structures,convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly *** results indicated that in single coarser grids(15 km and 9 km),the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL *** the inner 1-km grid,the underestimated intensity was improved;however,using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain−Fritsch cumulus scheme,significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak ***,with the weakest vertical mixing,produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level,but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper *** factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation,and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.

关键词： PBL parameterization extreme rainfall high resolution

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The mediatory role of water quality on the association between extreme precipitation events and infectious diarrhea in the Yangtze River Basin,China

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 495-504页

作者： Junfeng Yu liang Zhao xin-zhong liang Hung Chak Ho Masahiro Hashizume Cunrui Huang School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20740USA Department of Public and International Affairs City University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyo 113-0033Japan Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy China Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Extreme precipitation is exacerbating the burden of infectious diarrhea in the context of climate change,it is necessary to identify the critical and easy-to-intervene intermediate factors for public health *** quality may be the most important mediator,while relevant empirical evidence is *** study aimed to examine the role of water quality in the process of infectious diarrhea caused by extreme *** infectious diarrhea cases,meteorological factors and water quality data in Yangtze River Basin in China between October 29,2007 to February 19,2017 were ***-stage statistical models were used to estimate city-specific extreme precipitation,water quality and infectious diarrhea relationships that were pooled to derive regional estimates.A causal mediation analysis was used to assess the mediation effect of water *** Yangtze River Basin,extreme precipitation events had a significant impact on infectious diarrhea(Incidence Rate Ratios[IRR]:1.027,95%Confidence Interval[CI]:1.013~1.041).After extreme precipitation events,the dissolved oxygen(DO)in surface water decreased(-0.123 mg/L,95%CI:-0.159 mg/L~-0.086 mg/L),while the un-ionized ammonia(NH(3)-N)increased(0.004 mg/L,95%CI:0.001 mg/L~0.006 mg/L).The combined overall effect of DO and NH(3)-N on infectious diarrhea showed that both low and high concentrations were associated with an increased risk of infectious *** causal mediation analysis showed that the mediation proportion of the two water quality indexes(DO and NH(3)-N)is 70.54%(P<0.001).To reduce the health effects of extreme precipitation,in contrast to current population-oriented health strategies,those that take into account more direct and easy-to-intervene water quality indicators should be encouraged by future policies.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Infectious diarrhea Water quality Dissolved oxygen Un-ionized ammonia Mediation analysis

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CWRF-based ensemble simulation of tropical cyclone activity near China and its sensitivity to the model physical parameterization schemes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第1期14卷 22-26页

作者： Wenru Shi Haishan Chen xin-zhong liang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland5825 University Research CourtSuite 4001College ParkMDUSA

To evaluate the downscaling ability with respect to tropical cyclones(TCs)near China and its sensitivity to the model physics representation,the authors performed a multi-physics ensemble simulation with the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting(CWRF)model at a 30 km resolution driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis *** ensemble consisted of 28 integrations during 1979-2016 with varying CWRF physics *** CWRF and ERA-Interim can generally capture the seasonal cycle and interannual variation of the TC number near China,but evidently underestimate *** CWRF downscaling and its multi-physics ensemble can notably reduce the underestimation and significantly improve the simulation of the TC *** skill enhancement is especially large in terms of the interannual variation,which is most sensitive to the cumulus scheme,followed by the boundary layer,surface and radiation schemes,but weakly sensitive to the cloud and microphysics ***,the Noah surface scheme,CAML(CAM radiation scheme as implemented by liang together with the diagnostic cloud cover scheme of Xu and Randall(1996))radiation scheme,prognostic cloud scheme,and Thompson microphysics scheme stand out for their better performance in simulating the interannual variation of TC ***,the Emanuel cumulus and MYNN boundary layer schemes produce severe interannual *** study provides a valuable reference for CWRF application to improve the understanding and prediction of TC activity.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Ensemble simulation Physical parameterization schemes Regional downscaling

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Spatiotemporal variation of mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in China,1979–2020

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Science Bulletin 2022年第13期67卷 1340-1344,M0004页

作者： Huiqi Chen liang Zhao Wei Dong liangliang Cheng Wenjia Cai Jun Yang Junzhe Bao xin-zhong liang Shakoor Hajat Peng Gong Wannian liang Cunrui Huang School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education&Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute for Environmental and Climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 510632China School of Public Health Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center&Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20742USA Department of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HTUK Department of Earth Sciences the University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy China Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

热浪通过增加死亡和发病风险导致巨大的公共卫生负担.而在气候变暖与社会经济发展相交织的风险下,中国人群所面临的热浪导致的健康负担的时间演变规律、空间分布特征及其驱动因素仍然存在大量空白.本研究应用基于事件的归因损失评估方... 详细信息

热浪通过增加死亡和发病风险导致巨大的公共卫生负担.而在气候变暖与社会经济发展相交织的风险下,中国人群所面临的热浪导致的健康负担的时间演变规律、空间分布特征及其驱动因素仍然存在大量空白.本研究应用基于事件的归因损失评估方法定量评估了过去40年格点水平的每日热浪归因死亡人数.研究发现,热浪相关死亡人数具有快速增长、非线性和极端性的特征,40年间增加了4倍,2010年代年均归因死亡人数达15500人.归因死亡负担还呈现强烈的区域异质性,华东和华中地区负担更重.随着时间的推移,中国可归因死亡人数上升的主要影响因素是增加的热浪发生频率,其次是人口增长和老龄化.这项工作为民众提供了更为直观的高温健康危害信息,同时为制定有针对性的气候变化适应措施提供重要信息.

关键词：社会经济发展气候变化适应区域异质性死亡人数损失评估公共卫生极端性发病风险

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From waste to wealth:Coal tar residue derived carbon materials as low-cost anodes for potassium-ion batteries

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International Journal of Minerals,Metallurgy and Materials 2025年第2期32卷 464-475页

作者： zhonghua Lu Jun Shen xin Zhang Lingcong Chao liang Chen Ding Zhang Tao Wei Shoudong Xu College of Chemical Engineering and Technology Taiyuan University of TechnologyTaiyuan 030024China College of Chemistry Taiyuan University of TechnologyTaiyuan 030024China School of Chemical Engineering and Pharmacy Wuhan Institute of TechnologyWuhan 430205China School of Energy and Power Jiangsu University of Science and TechnologyZhenjiang 212003China

Carbon materials are widely recognized as highly promising electrode materials for various energy storage system *** tar residues(CTR),as a type of carbon-rich solid waste with high value-added utilization,are crucially important for the development of a more sustainable *** this study,we employed a straightforward direct carbonization method within the temperature range of 700-1000℃to convert the worthless solid waste CTR into economically valuable carbon materials as anodes for potassium-ion batteries(PIBs).The effect of carbonization temperature on the microstructure and the potassium ions storage properties of CTR-derived carbons(CTRCs)were systematically explored by structural and morphological characterization,alongside electrochemical performances *** on the co-regulation between the turbine layers,crystal structure,pore structure,functional groups,and electrical conductivity of CTR-derived carbon carbonized at 900℃(CTRC-900H),the electrode material with high reversible capacity of 265.6m Ah·g^(-1)at 50 m A·g^(-1),a desirable cycling stability with 93.8%capacity retention even after 100 cycles,and the remarkable rate performance for PIBs were ***,cyclic voltammetry(CV)at different scan rates and galvanostatic intermittent titration technique(GITT)have been employed to explore the potassium ions storage mechanism and electrochemical kinetics of *** indicate that the electrode behavior is predominantly governed by surface-induced capacitive processes,particularly under high current densities,with the potassium storage mechanism characterized by an“adsorption-weak intercalation”*** work highlights the potential of CTR-based carbon as a promising electrode material category suitable for high-performance PIBs electrodes,while also provides valuable insights into the new avenues for the high value-added utilization of CTR.

关键词： coal tar residue carbon materials anode potassium-ion batteries high value-added

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一种融合点线特征的视觉里程计架构设计与定位实现

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北京理工大学学报 2019年第5期39卷 480-485页

作者：赵嘉珩罗霄钟心亮韩宝铃黄羽童北京理工大学机械与车辆学院北京100081 北京理工大学软件学院北京100081 北京理工大学机电学院北京100081

基于视觉的同时定位与地图构建(SLAM)技术是实现移动机器人自主导航的关键.当机器人处在陌生环境中时,通常会利用周围目标的点特征来估计导航相机的位姿,并利用光束法平差来估计相机位姿和特征空间位置.但如果环境中的特征信息不丰富,... 详细信息

基于视觉的同时定位与地图构建(SLAM)技术是实现移动机器人自主导航的关键.当机器人处在陌生环境中时,通常会利用周围目标的点特征来估计导航相机的位姿,并利用光束法平差来估计相机位姿和特征空间位置.但如果环境中的特征信息不丰富,则无法准确估计相机轨迹,且欧式坐标与反深度信息下的光束法平差部分条件下不收敛.为此,提出了一种在缺少特征点的环境下通过收集深度相机信息,同时利用点特征与线特征融合的视觉里程计,构建了融合视差角光束法平差与基于线特征的光束法平差的策略,从而使重投影误差达到最小化.最后与其他基于特征的SLAM系统进行比较,实验结果表明,在缺少特征点的真实环境中,系统位姿估计的性能与准确度得到提升.

关键词：同时定位与地图构建线特征光束法平差移动机器人深度相机

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9F级燃气-蒸汽联合循环电厂天然气调压站控制系统

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电力系统装备 2019年第21期 100-101页

作者：钟鑫亮南方电网调峰调频发电有限公司工程建设管理分公司广东广州510630

随着可持续发展理念的不断深化,燃气–蒸汽联合循环机组凭借着高热效率、良好调峰性能、较短建设周期以及低污染等优点,受到能源企业的青睐。本文结合某燃气–蒸汽联合循环电厂天然气调压站控制系统的实际情况,就调压站分散控制系统(DCS... 详细信息

随着可持续发展理念的不断深化,燃气–蒸汽联合循环机组凭借着高热效率、良好调峰性能、较短建设周期以及低污染等优点,受到能源企业的青睐。本文结合某燃气–蒸汽联合循环电厂天然气调压站控制系统的实际情况,就调压站分散控制系统(DCS)的设计和实现进行了分析,希望为同类工程提供参考。

关键词：燃气—蒸汽联合循环机组天然气调压站 DCS 设计

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