Spatiotemporal variation of mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in China,1979–2020

作     者：Huiqi Chen Liang Zhao Wei Dong Liangliang Cheng Wenjia Cai Jun Yang Junzhe Bao Xin-Zhong Liang Shakoor Hajat Peng Gong Wannian Liang Cunrui Huang 陈慧琪;赵亮;董伟;程亮亮;蔡闻佳;杨军;鲍俊哲;梁信忠;Shakoor Hajat;宫鹏;梁万年;黄存瑞

作者机构：School of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and HealthShanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of Education&Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute for Environmental and Climate ResearchJinan UniversityGuangzhou 510632China School of Public HealthZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center&Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic ScienceUniversity of MarylandCollege Park MD 20742USA Department of Epidemiology and Population HealthLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HTUK Department of Earth Sciencesthe University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Vanke School of Public HealthTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy ChinaTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第67卷第13期

页      面：1340-1344,M0004页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 100402[医学-劳动卫生与环境卫生学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2018YFA0606200) 

主　　题：社会经济发展 气候变化适应 区域异质性 死亡人数 损失评估 公共卫生 极端性 发病风险 

摘      要：热浪通过增加死亡和发病风险导致巨大的公共卫生负担.而在气候变暖与社会经济发展相交织的风险下,中国人群所面临的热浪导致的健康负担的时间演变规律、空间分布特征及其驱动因素仍然存在大量空白.本研究应用基于事件的归因损失评估方法定量评估了过去40年格点水平的每日热浪归因死亡人数.研究发现,热浪相关死亡人数具有快速增长、非线性和极端性的特征,40年间增加了4倍,2010年代年均归因死亡人数达15500人.归因死亡负担还呈现强烈的区域异质性,华东和华中地区负担更重.随着时间的推移,中国可归因死亡人数上升的主要影响因素是增加的热浪发生频率,其次是人口增长和老龄化.这项工作为民众提供了更为直观的高温健康危害信息,同时为制定有针对性的气候变化适应措施提供重要信息.