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Time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates in epidemiological models

Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 419-430页

作者： Scott Greenhalgh troy day Department of Mathematics Siena CollegeLoudonvilleNY12211USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics Queen's UniversityJeffery HallKingstonONK7L 3N6Canada

Differential equation models of infectious disease have undergone many theoretical extensions that are invaluable for the evaluation of disease *** instance,while one traditionally uses a bilinear term to describe the incidence rate of infection,physically more realistic generalizations exist to account for effects such as the saturation of ***,such theoretical extensions of recovery rates in differential equation models have only started to be *** is despite the fact that a constant rate often does not provide a good description of the dynamics of recovery and that the recovery rate is arguably as important as the incidence rate in governing the dynamics of a *** provide a first-principles derivation of state-dependent and time-varying recovery rates in differential equation models of infectious *** this derivation,we demonstrate how to obtain time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions and a power-law distribution,*** recovery rates based on the family of Pearson distributions,we show that uncertainty in skewness,in comparison to other statistical moments,is at least two times more impactful on the sensitivity of predicting an epidemic's *** addition,using recovery rates based on a power-law distribution,we provide a procedure to obtain state-dependent recovery *** such state-dependent rates,we derive a natural connection between recovery rate parameters with the mean and standard deviation of a power-law distribution,illustrating the impact that standard deviation has on the shape of an epidemic wave.

关键词： Differential equations Integral equations Infectious disease modeling Waiting time distribution Duration of infectiousness SIR epidemic model

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Epidural Hematoma after the Use of Subcutaneous Unfractionated Heparin and History of Epidural Tumor

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Open Journal of Anesthesiology 2014年第7期4卷 163-166页

作者： Basem A. Abdelfattah troy Buck Scott Byram Department of Anesthesiology Loyola University Medical Center Maywood IL USA

The patient was a 66-year-old male with a history of renal cell carcinoma with metastasis to the L2, L3, and L4 vertebral bodies scheduled for a radical nephrectomy and adrenalectomy. Prior to surgery the patient had undergone 10 radiation treatments for the vertebral metastasis. Patient medications included colace, prednisone, ibuprofen (taken 4 days prior to procedure), sunitinib, hydrocodone, benazepril, nexium, rosuvastatin, allopurinol, and azor. Physical exam prior to surgery was normal with no focal findings. Laboratory values were within normal limits with a platelet count of 286. General anesthesia was planned with a pre-operative thoracic epidural for postoperative analgesia. The epidural was placed at the T9-T10 level without complication. Adequate pain control was present post operatively and the epidural was discontinued on post-operative day 3. At that time the patient was noted to have numbness over the bilateral lower extremities and decreased strength. Heparin 5000 units subcutaneous had been given 12 hours prior to discontinuation of the epidural. The patient was afebrile, hemoglobin was 7, white blood cell count was 9.7, and platelets were 166 at time of epidural removal. Subcutaneous heparin was restarted 6 hours after catheter removal. The anesthesia acute pain service was contacted by the primary service 25 hours after discontinuation of the epidural catheter regarding complaints of persistentbilateral lower extremity weakness and sensory loss. An magnetic resonance image (MRI) revealeda focus posterior to the spinal cord at the T10/T11 interspace likely representing a hematoma. A high intensity T2 signal within the central spinal cord at T10/T11 was also observed;likely a vascular infarct. The patient was immediately scheduled for a T9-T10 laminectomy and evacuation of the epidural hematoma. No significant abnormalities were noted in coagulation studies prior to surgery. The patient was discharged on post-operative day 20 with no neurologic de

关键词： Epidural Hematoma Epidural Metastasis Heparin

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Barbed polyglyconate vs monocryl suture in vesico-urethral anastomosis during robot-assisted radical prostatectomy

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World Journal of Clinical Urology 2015年第2期4卷 92-96页

作者： Devang Desai Kevin Lah Charles Chabert troy Gianduzzo Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital University of Queensland Wesley Hospital

AIM: To compare outcomes using barbed polyglyconate(V-Loc 180) vs monofilament monocryl suture in forming vesico-urethral anastomosis(VUA) during robot assisted radical ***: Review of prospectively collected robot assisted radical prostatectomy data between July 2011 and September 2012. VUA technique: VUA was performed using 2 cm × 15 cm 2/0 V-Loc 180 continuous sutures or 3/0 monofilament monocryl sutures. Anastomotic integrity was tested intra-operatively with a water leak test. All patients had a post-operative cystogram at day 7 to ***: There were 189 patients in the study with 113 in the V-Loc group and 76 in the monocryl group. Demographics were similar for both groups P > 0.05). The median operative time for V-Loc group was 130 min and monocryl group was 145 min, which was statistically significant(P < 0.001). The median blood loss for both groups was 200 m L with no significant difference(P = 0.260). The pathology results of the 2 groups were similar(P = 0.537). Four patients in the V-Loc group and two patients in the monocryl group had radiological urinary leak. This was not statistically significant(P = 1.00) and all patients improved with conservative management. The continence rates were comparable for both ***: V-Loc suture significantly reduced operative time facilitating ease of VUA formation. Overall functional outcome and urinary morbidity were not significantly different from the monofilament group.

关键词： Prostatectomy Prostate cancer Robotic surgery V-loc,Monocryl Anastomosis Operative time Gleason score Prostate volume Incontinence

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Development of a Biological Filter Utilizing Organic Growth Media for Wastewater Treatment and Nitrogen Oxidation

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(B) 2012年第1期2卷 62-73页

作者： troy Francis Davis Ronald Erie Sheffield Steven George Hall Brian Dawson LeBlanc Chandra SekharTheegala Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Louisiana State University AgCenter Baton Rouge 70803 Louisiana70803 United States LSU AgCenter Callegari Environmental Center Baton Rouge 70803 Louisiana 70803 United States

Loss of ammonia-nitrogen to volatilization and the over application of phosphorus in agricultural wastewaters has led to excess phosphorus build up in topsoil and in surface waters. In order to increase the usable amount nitrogen in agricultural wastewaters, the wastewaters underwent a nitrogen treatment process consisting of a hanging basket biological filter. The filters utilized never before used biological growth media, rice hulls, to assist in the formation of a mature biofilms as the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate. The filter design was used on a lab scale that treated both artificial wastewater and dairy parlor wastewater treated with a lime precipitation step for phosphorus treatment. The filters were tested to see if bio-fouling occurred in the filter media bed under high nitrogen loading, if the rice hulls could withstand an extended time frame as bacterial growth media, and to see if the oxidation of ammonia to nitrate would occur. A 50% reduction in ammonia occurred between 30 and 48 hrs in each trial with eventual nitrite oxidation reported in the final two trials. Statistical analysis preformed determined that the ammonia removal rates at the beginning of both the synthetic wastewater and dairy parlor wastewater ten-day tests were statistically similar, but varied toward the end of the trials.

关键词： Wastewater nitrification ammonia biological filter rice hull.

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