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ARHCS (Automatic Rainfall Half-Life Cluster System): A Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Using Cluster Analysis and Automatic Threshold Definition

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第1期15卷 54-69页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Luana Albertani Pampuch Marcio Roberto Magalhães De Andrade Daniel Metodiev Adenilson Roberto Carvalho Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes tristan pryer Harideva Marturano Egas Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Isadora Araújo Sousa Jenny Power Cemaden - National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK

A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Cluster Analysis Landslides Brazil

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Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for a Class of Nonvariational Problems

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Communications on Applied Mathematics and Computation 2022年第2期4卷 634-656页

作者： Andreas Dedner tristan pryer Mathematics Institute University of WarwickCoventry CV47ALUK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of BathBath BA27AYUK

We extend the fnite element method introduced by Lakkis and pryer(SIAM ***.33(2):786–801,2011)to approximate the solution of second-order elliptic problems in nonvariational form to incorporate the discontinuous Galerkin(DG)*** is done by viewing the“fnite element Hessian”as an auxiliary variable in the *** the fnite element Hessian in a discontinuous setting yields a linear system of the same size and having the same sparsity pattern of the compact DG methods for variational elliptic ***,the system matrix is very easy to assemble;thus,this approach greatly reduces the computational complexity of the discretisation compared to the continuous *** conduct a stability and consistency analysis making use of the unifed frameworkset out in Arnold et al.(SIAM ***.39(5):1749–1779,2001/2002).We also give an a posteriori analysis of the method in the case where the problem has a strong *** analysis applies to any consistent representation of the fnite element Hessian,and thus is applicable to the previous works making use of continuous Galerkin *** evidence is presented showing that the method works well also in a more general setting.

关键词： Nonvariational problems Discontinuous Galerkin Error estimates Adaptivity

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Obtaining 2D Soil Geotechnical Profiles from Cokriging Interpolation of Sample Data and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)—Applications in Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第7期15卷 525-548页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Noel Howley Andy Legg tristan pryer Danielle Silva de Paula Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Harideva Marturano Egas Institute of Science and Technology So Paulo State University (UNESP) So Jos dos Campos Brazil Cemaden-National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development So Jos dos Campos Brazil Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Brazil annually faces significant challenges with mass movements, particularly in areas with poorly constructed housing, inadequate engineering, and lacking sanitation infrastructure. Campos do Jordão, in São Paulo state, is a city currently grappling with these issues. This paper details a study conducted within a pilot area in Campos do Jordão, where geophysical surveys and geotechnical borehole data were integrated. The geophysical surveys provided 2D profiles, and samples were collected to analyse soil moisture and plasticity. These datasets were combined using a Cokriging-based model to produce an accurate representation of the subsurface conditions. The enhanced modelling of subsurface variability facilitates a deeper understanding of soil behavior, which can be used to improve landslide risk assessments. This approach is innovative, particularly within the international context where similar studies often do not address the complexities associated with urban planning deficits such as those observed in some areas of Brazil. These conditions, including the lack of proper sanitation and irregular housing, significantly influence the geological stability of the region, adding layers of complexity to subsurface assessments. Adapting geotechnical evaluation methods to local challenges offers the potential to increase the efficacy and relevance of geological risk management in regions with similar socio-economic and urban characteristics.

关键词： Mass Movements Geophysics ERT Geotechnical Surveys Campos do Jordão Cokriging

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Thresholds of Instability: Precipitation, Landslides, and Early Warning Systems in Brazil

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第10期14卷 895-912页

作者： Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Daniel Metodiev tristan pryer Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Rainfall accumulation thresholds are crucial for issuing landslide warnings by identifying when soil saturation from rain could potentially trigger a landslide. Two essential types of thresholds are considered: environmental and operational. The environmental threshold indicates the minimum rainfall level required to potentially initiate a landslide. Conversely, the operational threshold is set lower to enable agencies to issue alerts before reaching environmental thresholds. Establishing these thresholds improves the accuracy of landslide predictions in terms of location and timing. This study introduces an innovative approach for determining these thresholds. Our approach employs cluster analysis and historical landslide data from the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil. We applied our defined values to a significant landslide event in 2022, validating their robustness as the foundation for the operational threshold used by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Cluster Analysis Landslides Environmental Thresholds Rainfall Brazil

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The SNAKE System: CEMADEN’s Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) Mechanism

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第11期14卷 1146-1159页

作者： Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Adenilson Roberto Carvalho Harideva Marturano Egas Klaifer Garcia Daniel Metodiev Tulius Dias Nery Carla Prieto tristan pryer Silvia Midori Saito Graziela Scofield CEMADEN—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

In Brazil, the prominent climate-induced disasters are floods and mass movements, with the latter being the most lethal. The spate of major landslide events, especially those in 2011, catalyzed the creation of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters). This article introduces one of CEMADEN’s pivotal systems for early landslide warnings and traces its developmental timeline. The highlighted SNAKE System epitomizes advancements in digital monitoring, forecasting, and alert mechanisms. By leveraging precipitation data from pluviometers in observed municipalities, the system bolsters early warnings related to potential mass movements, like planar slides and debris flows. Its deployment in CEMADEN’s Situation Room attests to its suitability for overseeing high-risk municipalities, attributed primarily to its robustness and precision.

关键词： Natural Disasters Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) SNAKE System CEMADEN Brazil

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Curupira V1.0: Joint Inversion of VES and TEM for Environmental and Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第11期14卷 1160-1176页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Jorge Luís Porsani tristan pryer Jorge Luis Abril Benjumea Fernando Acácio Monteiro dos Santos Marco Antonio Couto Jr. Luana Albertani Pampuch Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Daniel Metodiev Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade CEMADEN—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Geophysics Department Institute of Astronomy Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) University of S&#227o Paulo (USP) S&#227o Paulo Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Colombian Geological Service (SGC) Bogotá Colombia Don Luiz Institute (IDL) University of Lisboa Lisboa Portugal CPRM—Brazilian Geological Survey SUREG-BH Belo Horizonte Brazil Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

An innovative inversion code, named “Curupira v1.0”, has been developed using Matlab to determine the vertical distribution of resistivity beneath the subsoil. The program integrates Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), successful in shallow subsurface exploration and Time Domain Electromagnetic (TEM) techniques, better suited for deeper exploration, both of which are widely employed in geophysical exploration. These methodologies involve calculating subsurface resistivity through appropriate inversion processes. To address the ill-posed nature of inverse problems in geophysics, a joint inversion scheme combining VES and TEM data has been incorporated into Curupira v1.0. The software has been tested on both synthetic and real-world data, the latter of which was acquired from the Parana sedimentary basin which we summarise here. The results indicate that the joint inversion of VES and TEM techniques offers improved recovery of simulated models and demonstrates significant potential for hydrogeological studies.

关键词： VES TEM Joint Inversion CRS—Controlled Random Search Paraná Sedimentary Basin Brazil

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Obtaining 2D Soil Resistance Profiles from the Integration of Electrical Resistivity Data and Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) Resistance Tests—Applications in Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第9期14卷 840-854页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes Mariana Ferreira Benessiuti Motta Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões tristan pryer Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Danielle Silva de Paula Nélio José Bastos Luana Albertani Pampuch Rodolfo Moreda Mendes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Faculty of Engineering and Sciences Department of Civil Engineering S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) Guaratinguetá Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Department of Geotechnical Engineering University of Sao Paulo Sao Carlos Brazil

In Brazil and various regions globally, the initiation of landslides is frequently associated with rainfall;yet the spatial arrangement of geological structures and stratification considerably influences landslide occurrences. The multifaceted nature of these influences makes the surveillance of mass movements a highly intricate task, requiring an understanding of numerous interdependent variables. Recent years have seen an emergence in scholarly research aimed at integrating geophysical and geotechnical methodologies. The conjoint examination of geophysical and geotechnical data offers an enhanced perspective into subsurface structures. Within this work, a methodology is proposed for the synchronous analysis of electrical resistivity geophysical data and geotechnical data, specifically those extracted from the Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) and Standard Penetration Test (SPT). This study involved a linear fitting process to correlate resistivity with N10/SPT N-values from DPL/SPT soundings, culminating in a 2D profile of N10/SPT N-values predicated on electrical profiles. The findings of this research furnish invaluable insights into slope stability by allowing for a two-dimensional representation of penetration resistance properties. Through the synthesis of geophysical and geotechnical data, this project aims to augment the comprehension of subsurface conditions, with potential implications for refining landslide risk evaluations. This endeavor offers insight into the formulation of more effective and precise slope management protocols and disaster prevention strategies.

关键词： Geophysics Geotechnical Data Electrical Resistivity Method Standard Penetration Test (SPT) Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) Mass Movements

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Ba同位素揭示上地幔中广泛存在再循环的沉积物

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矿物岩石地球化学通报 2018年第4期37卷 695-695页

作者： Sune G.Nielsen tristan J.Horner Helena V.pryer Jerzy Blusztajn Yunchao Shu Mark D.Kurz Veronique Le Roux

Ba同位素由于具有在低温环境中分馏的特性,相比放射性同位素与微量元素,可以更好地示踪地球深部动力学过程中的再循环物质。研究表明沉积物与蚀变洋壳具有明显不同的Ba同位素组成（沉积物富集来自重晶石的Ba）,使得Ba同位素成为研究表... 详细信息

Ba同位素由于具有在低温环境中分馏的特性,相比放射性同位素与微量元素,可以更好地示踪地球深部动力学过程中的再循环物质。研究表明沉积物与蚀变洋壳具有明显不同的Ba同位素组成（沉积物富集来自重晶石的Ba）,使得Ba同位素成为研究表层与地幔储库间物质交换的有力工具。

关键词： Ba同位素沉积物再循环上地幔深部动力学过程放射性同位素物质交换同位素组成

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