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Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第1期15卷 70-86页

作者： Marcio Augusto Ernesto De Moraes Walter Manoel mendes Filho Rodolfo Moreda mendes Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães De Andrade Harideva Marturano Egas tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Luana Albertani Pampuch CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Faculty of Science and Technology Goias Federal University Aparecida de Goi&#226nia Brazil Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with AP

关键词： Landslides Antecedent Precipitation Index Soil Moisture Threshold Water Balance

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ARHCS (Automatic Rainfall Half-Life Cluster System): A Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Using Cluster Analysis and Automatic Threshold Definition

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第1期15卷 54-69页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Luana Albertani Pampuch Marcio Roberto Magalhães De Andrade Daniel Metodiev Adenilson Roberto Carvalho tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Tristan Pryer Harideva Marturano Egas Rodolfo Moreda mendes Isadora Araújo Sousa Jenny Power Cemaden - National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK

A significant portion of Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS) relies on the definition of operational thresholds and the monitoring of cumulative rainfall for alert issuance. These thresholds can be obtained in various ways, but most often they are based on previous landslide data. This approach introduces several limitations. For instance, there is a requirement for the location to have been previously monitored in some way to have this type of information recorded. Another significant limitation is the need for information regarding the location and timing of incidents. Despite the current ease of obtaining location information (GPS, drone images, etc.), the timing of the event remains challenging to ascertain for a considerable portion of landslide data. Concerning rainfall monitoring, there are multiple ways to consider it, for instance, examining accumulations over various intervals (1 h, 6 h, 24 h, 72 h), as well as in the calculation of effective rainfall, which represents the precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. However, in the vast majority of cases, both the thresholds and the rain monitoring approach are defined manually and subjectively, relying on the operators’ experience. This makes the process labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the establishment of a truly standardized and rapidly scalable methodology on a large scale. In this work, we propose a Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) based on the concept of rainfall half-life and the determination of thresholds using Cluster Analysis and data inversion. The system is designed to be applied in extensive monitoring networks, such as the one utilized by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Landslides Early Warning System (LEWS) Cluster Analysis Landslides Brazil

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Obtaining 2D Soil Geotechnical Profiles from Cokriging Interpolation of Sample Data and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)—Applications in Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第7期15卷 525-548页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Noel Howley Andy Legg Tristan Pryer Danielle Silva de Paula tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch Rodolfo Moreda mendes Harideva Marturano Egas Institute of Science and Technology So Paulo State University (UNESP) So Jos dos Campos Brazil Cemaden-National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development So Jos dos Campos Brazil Institute for Mathematical Innovation University of Bath Bath UK Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Brazil annually faces significant challenges with mass movements, particularly in areas with poorly constructed housing, inadequate engineering, and lacking sanitation infrastructure. Campos do Jordão, in São Paulo state, is a city currently grappling with these issues. This paper details a study conducted within a pilot area in Campos do Jordão, where geophysical surveys and geotechnical borehole data were integrated. The geophysical surveys provided 2D profiles, and samples were collected to analyse soil moisture and plasticity. These datasets were combined using a Cokriging-based model to produce an accurate representation of the subsurface conditions. The enhanced modelling of subsurface variability facilitates a deeper understanding of soil behavior, which can be used to improve landslide risk assessments. This approach is innovative, particularly within the international context where similar studies often do not address the complexities associated with urban planning deficits such as those observed in some areas of Brazil. These conditions, including the lack of proper sanitation and irregular housing, significantly influence the geological stability of the region, adding layers of complexity to subsurface assessments. Adapting geotechnical evaluation methods to local challenges offers the potential to increase the efficacy and relevance of geological risk management in regions with similar socio-economic and urban characteristics.

关键词： Mass Movements Geophysics ERT Geotechnical Surveys Campos do Jordão Cokriging

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A Systematic Review of Forensic Approaches to Disasters: Gaps and Challenges

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 722-735页

作者： Adriano Mota Ferreira Victor Marchezini tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Miguel Angel Trejo-Rangel Allan Yu Iwama Graduate Program in Disasters Institute of Science and TechnologySão Paulo State University(Unesp)São Josédos CamposSP12247-004Brazil Cemaden–National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters São Josédos CamposSP12247-004Brazil Natural Hazards Center Institute of Behavioral ScienceUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCO80309USA Department of Environmental Engineering Institute of Science and TechnologySão Paulo State University(Unesp)São Josédos CamposSP12247-004Brazil Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS(ICARUS) Department of GeographyMaynooth UniversityMaynoothW23 F2H6KildareIreland Graduate Program in Development and Environment Federal University of ParaíbaJoão PessoaPB58051-900Brazil

Disaster forensic approaches aim to identify the causes of disasters to support disaster risk ***,few studies have conducted a systematic literature review of scientific articles that labeled themselves as a forensic approach to *** article provides a qualitative analysis of these forensic studies,focusing on five main issues:(1)the methodologies applied;(2)the forensic approaches used in the disaster risk management phases;(3)the hazards addressed;(4)if the methodologies involve social participation,and using what types of participation;and(5)if there are references to urban planning in the scientific studies *** results showed a predominance of the Forensic Investigations of Disasters(FORIN)and Post-Event Review Capability(PERC)methodologies used in isolation or *** is a need for methodologies that engage people in participatory FORIN,fostering the co-production of knowledge and action research approaches.

关键词： Dynamic pressures Forensic investigation Participatory research Risk drivers Root causes

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Thresholds of Instability: Precipitation, Landslides, and Early Warning Systems in Brazil

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第10期14卷 895-912页

作者： Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Luana Albertani Pampuch Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Daniel Metodiev Tristan Pryer Environmental Engineering Department Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK

Rainfall accumulation thresholds are crucial for issuing landslide warnings by identifying when soil saturation from rain could potentially trigger a landslide. Two essential types of thresholds are considered: environmental and operational. The environmental threshold indicates the minimum rainfall level required to potentially initiate a landslide. Conversely, the operational threshold is set lower to enable agencies to issue alerts before reaching environmental thresholds. Establishing these thresholds improves the accuracy of landslide predictions in terms of location and timing. This study introduces an innovative approach for determining these thresholds. Our approach employs cluster analysis and historical landslide data from the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil. We applied our defined values to a significant landslide event in 2022, validating their robustness as the foundation for the operational threshold used by Cemaden, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters.

关键词： Cluster Analysis Landslides Environmental Thresholds Rainfall Brazil

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Curupira V1.0: Joint Inversion of VES and TEM for Environmental and Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第11期14卷 1160-1176页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo Jorge Luís Porsani Tristan Pryer Jorge Luis Abril Benjumea Fernando Acácio Monteiro dos Santos Marco Antonio Couto Jr. Luana Albertani Pampuch tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Daniel Metodiev Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Rodolfo Moreda mendes Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade CEMADEN—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Geophysics Department Institute of Astronomy Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) University of S&#227o Paulo (USP) S&#227o Paulo Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Colombian Geological Service (SGC) Bogotá Colombia Don Luiz Institute (IDL) University of Lisboa Lisboa Portugal CPRM—Brazilian Geological Survey SUREG-BH Belo Horizonte Brazil Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil

An innovative inversion code, named “Curupira v1.0”, has been developed using Matlab to determine the vertical distribution of resistivity beneath the subsoil. The program integrates Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), successful in shallow subsurface exploration and Time Domain Electromagnetic (TEM) techniques, better suited for deeper exploration, both of which are widely employed in geophysical exploration. These methodologies involve calculating subsurface resistivity through appropriate inversion processes. To address the ill-posed nature of inverse problems in geophysics, a joint inversion scheme combining VES and TEM data has been incorporated into Curupira v1.0. The software has been tested on both synthetic and real-world data, the latter of which was acquired from the Parana sedimentary basin which we summarise here. The results indicate that the joint inversion of VES and TEM techniques offers improved recovery of simulated models and demonstrates significant potential for hydrogeological studies.

关键词： VES TEM Joint Inversion CRS—Controlled Random Search Paraná Sedimentary Basin Brazil

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Obtaining 2D Soil Resistance Profiles from the Integration of Electrical Resistivity Data and Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) Resistance Tests—Applications in Mass Movements Studies

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International Journal of Geosciences 2023年第9期14卷 840-854页

作者： Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo tatiana sussel gon.alves mendes Mariana Ferreira Benessiuti Motta Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões Tristan Pryer Daniel Metodiev Marcio Roberto Magalhães de Andrade Maiconn Vinicius de Moraes Danielle Silva de Paula Nélio José Bastos Luana Albertani Pampuch Rodolfo Moreda mendes Marcio Augusto Ernesto de Moraes Institute of Science and Technology S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Cemaden—National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters General Coordination of Research and Development S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Faculty of Engineering and Sciences Department of Civil Engineering S&#227o Paulo State University (Unesp) Guaratinguetá Brazil Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Bath Bath UK Department of Geotechnical Engineering University of Sao Paulo Sao Carlos Brazil

In Brazil and various regions globally, the initiation of landslides is frequently associated with rainfall;yet the spatial arrangement of geological structures and stratification considerably influences landslide occurrences. The multifaceted nature of these influences makes the surveillance of mass movements a highly intricate task, requiring an understanding of numerous interdependent variables. Recent years have seen an emergence in scholarly research aimed at integrating geophysical and geotechnical methodologies. The conjoint examination of geophysical and geotechnical data offers an enhanced perspective into subsurface structures. Within this work, a methodology is proposed for the synchronous analysis of electrical resistivity geophysical data and geotechnical data, specifically those extracted from the Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) and Standard Penetration Test (SPT). This study involved a linear fitting process to correlate resistivity with N10/SPT N-values from DPL/SPT soundings, culminating in a 2D profile of N10/SPT N-values predicated on electrical profiles. The findings of this research furnish invaluable insights into slope stability by allowing for a two-dimensional representation of penetration resistance properties. Through the synthesis of geophysical and geotechnical data, this project aims to augment the comprehension of subsurface conditions, with potential implications for refining landslide risk evaluations. This endeavor offers insight into the formulation of more effective and precise slope management protocols and disaster prevention strategies.

关键词： Geophysics Geotechnical Data Electrical Resistivity Method Standard Penetration Test (SPT) Light Dynamic Penetrometer (DPL) Mass Movements

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