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Forecasting tropical cyclone rainfall and flooding hazards and impacts

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 100-112页

作者： Alex Lamers Sunitha Devi.S Monica Sharma Robbie Berg Jose Manuel Galvez Zifeng Yu tarik kriat Sareti Cardos David Grant Lorenzo A.Moron NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center USA India Meteorological Department India Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAChina LaReunion RSMC Meteo-FranceFrance Mexico Meteorological Service USA Bureau of Meteorology Australia PAGASA Philippines

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones(TCs)and its impact during 2014–18,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia during 5th–9th December *** physical processes that can modulate TC rainfall distribution,including topography,storm motion,vertical wind shear,and intensity,along with the fundamental physics of rain bands and clouds as simulated by numerical models,diurnal variation of rainfall,and various synoptic and mesoscale features controlling the rainfall distribution are briefly *** to the dynamic core and physical processes in global models are providing useable forecasts nearly up to 7 *** report also summarizes,some tools that have been developed to predict TC *** there is a tendency for operational forecasting centers to utilize multi-model ensemble systems for rainfall forecasting that demonstrate superior performance than individual models,ensemble members,or even single model *** impacts include pluvial and fluvial floods,and *** techniques developed by various forecasting centers to assist in predicting and communicating the impacts associated with these events are also presented in this report.

关键词： Rainfall Flooding Storm size Topography

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OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 1:RECENT ADVANCES IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 123-133页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Charles R.Sampson John A.Knaff Thomas Birchard Stephen Barlow S.D.Kotal tarik kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Udai Shimada Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan

This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)in Hawaii in *** advances and major changes over the past four years are presented,with a special focus on forecasting rapid intensity *** intensity change remains one of the most difficult aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting,objective guidance has shown some *** greatest improvements are realized when consensus methods are utilized,especially those that blend statistical-dynamical based guidance with dynamical ocean-coupled regional *** models become even more skillful when initialized with inner core observational *** improvement and availability of intensity guidance along with associated forecaster training are expected to deliver forecasting improvements in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE PART 2:FORECASTS BY OPERATIONAL AGENCIES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 226-239页

作者： Joseph B.Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff S.D.Kotal tarik kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R.Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh Bureau of Meteorology Australia Meteo-France La RéunionFrance Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC) USA Central Pacific Hurricane Centre(CPHC) USA NOAA/Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA India Meteorological Department(IMD) India Meteo-France France Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) Korea National Hurricane Centre(NHC) USA Naval Research Laboratory(NRL) USA Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA) Japan Fiji Meteorological Service(FMS) Fiji

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting *** is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change rapid intensification

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