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Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 257-268页

作者： Weilai PEI Shiyong Zhou Jiancang ZHUANG Ziyao XIONG Jian PIAO School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Research Organization of Information and SystemsTokyo 1908562Japan

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

关键词： Statistical seismology Earthquake prediction Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Stress release model Epidemic type aftershock sequence model

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A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2018年第2期2卷 150-162页

作者： YiJian zhou Shiyong Zhou JianCang Zhuang Department of Geophysics Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Institute of Statistical Mathematics 10-3 Midoori-ChoTachikawaTokyo190-8569Japan

This study tested five methods widely used in estimating the complete magnitudes(M_C) of earthquake catalogs. Using catalogs of observed earthquake properties, we test the performance of these five algorithms under several challenging conditions, such as small volume of events and spatial-temporal heterogeneity, in order to see whether the algorithms are stable and in agreement with known data. We find that the maximum curvature method(MAXC) has perfect stability, but will significantly underestimate M_C unless heterogeneity is absent. M_C estimated by the b-value stability method(MBS) requires many events to reach a stable result. Results from the goodness of fit method(GFT) were unstable when heterogeneity lowered the fitness level. The entire magnitude range method(EMR) is relatively stable in most conditions, and can reflect the change in M_C when heterogeneity exists, but when the incomplete part of the earthquake catalog is dismissed, this method fails. The median-based analysis of the segment slope method(MBASS) can tolerate small sample size, but is incapable of reflecting the missing degree of small events in aftershock sequences. In conditions where M_C changes rapidly, such as in aftershock sequences, observing the time sequence directly can give a precise estimation of the complete sub-catalog, but only when the number of events available for study is large enough can the MAXC, GFT, and MBS methods give a similarly reliable estimation.

关键词： complete magnitude of an earthquake catalog G-R law b-value FMD

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The spatiotemporal variation of the b-value and its tectonic implications in North China

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Earthquake Science 2014年第3期27卷 301-310页

作者： Yujie Zheng Shiyong Zhou School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University

In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.

关键词： Improved Bayesian approach B-splines b-value Frequency-magnitude distribution North China Earthquake hazard analysis

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The accessible seismological dataset of a high-density 2D seismic array along Anninghe fault

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Earthquake Science 2024年第1期37卷 67-77页

作者： Weifan Lu Zeyan Zhao Han Yue Shiyong Zhou Jianping Wu Xiaodong Song School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The scientific goal of the Anninghe seismic array is to investigate the detailed geometry of the Anninghe fault and the velocity structure of the fault zone.This 2D seismic array is composed of 161 stations forming sub-rectangular geometry along the Anninghe fault,which covers 50 km and 150 km in the fault normal and strike directions,respectively,with~5 km intervals.The data were collected between June 2020 and June 2021,with some level of temporal gaps.Two types of instruments,i.e.QS-05A and SmartSolo,are used in this array.Data quality and examples of seismograms are provided in this paper.After the data protection period ends(expected in June 2024),researchers can request a dataset from the National Earthquake Science Data Center.

关键词： Anninghe fault seismological dataset data share

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Hodgkin's lymphoma:2023 update on treatment

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Cancer Biology & Medicine 2024年第4期21卷 269-273页

作者： Sicong Zhang Xianming Liu Lanfang Li Lihua Qiu Zhengzi Qian Shiyong Zhou Xianhuo Wang Huilai Zhang Department of Lymphoma Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute&HospitalNational Key Laboratory of Druggability Evaluation and Systematic Translational MedicineNational Clinical Research Center for CancerTianjin's Clinical Research Center for CancerKey Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and TherapyTianjinThe Sino-US Center for Lymphoma and Leukemia ResearchTianjin 300060China

Hodgkin's lymphoma(HL)is a common,malignant hematological tumor of the lymph nodes and lymphatic system,accounting for 10%of all lymphomas.HL comprises 2 main subtypes:classical HL(cHL)and nodular lymphocyte predomina... 详细信息

关键词： lymphoma treatment predominant

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Research Progress on Spider-Inspired Tough Fibers

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Chinese Journal of Chemistry 2023年第23期41卷 3401-3418页

作者： shiyong Liu Zhanpeng Cui Zunfeng Liu Weiqiang Zhao Xiang zhou Department of Science China Pharmaceutical UniversityNanjingJiangsu211198 China State Key Laboratory of Medicinal Chemical Biology College of Pharmacyand College of ChemistryKey Laboratory of Functional Polymer MaterialsFrontiers Science Center for New Organic MatterNankai UniversityTianjin300071 China

Spider silk has attracted increasing attention due to its fascinating combination of ultra-high tenacity high strength,and excellent elasticity.Based on the fundamental biological studies on spider silk,significant research efforts have been devoted to biotechnology and chemical synthesis to mimic or even exceed the properties of natural spider silk fibers.Moreover,the natural spider silk fiber has been simulated with the burgeoning development of numerous spinning technologies,including wet spinning,dry spinning,electrostatic spinning,and microfluidic spinning,which continuously help to optimize the properties of synthetic spider silk.The unique characteristics of natural spider silk include high refraction transmission,heat resistance,antimicrobial properties,biocompatibility,and super shrinking.Biconical recreation of spider silk with special features and extraordinary capabilities demonstrates potential applications in biomedicine,smart wearables,artificial muscles and sensors,aerospace and other domains.

关键词： High tenacity fibers Fibers Spinning technologies Artificial spider silks Microstructures Sensors

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Distribution of the low velocity bulk in the middle-to-lower crust of southern Tibet: implications for formation of the north–south trending rift zones

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Earthquake Science 2014年第2期27卷 149-157页

作者： Mingming Jiang Yinshuang Ai Shiyong Zhou Yongshun John Chen Key Laboratory of the Earth’s Deep Interior Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics School of Earth and Space SciencesPeking University

We conducted the ambient noise tomography to image the shallow crustal structure of southern Tibet. The2D maps of phase velocity anomalies at the periods of10–16 s show that the low velocities are mainly confined along or near some of the rift zones. While the maps at the periods of 18–25 s show that the coherent patterns that the low velocities expand outside of the rift zones. It means that the low velocities are prevailing in the middle crust of southern Tibet. According to the previous study of surface wave tomography with teleseismic data,we find that the low velocities from the lower crust to the lithospheric mantle are also restricted to the same rift zones. Thus,the integrated knowledge of the distribution of the low velocities in southern Tibet provides some new insight on the formation of the north–south trending rift zones. Compiling the multidiscipline evidences,we conclude that the rifting was an integrated process of the entire lithosphere in the early stage（＊26–10 Ma）,but mainly occurred within the upper crust due to the weakening a decoupling in the low velocity middle crust in the late stage（later than ＊8 Ma）.

关键词： Ambient noise tomography Southern Tibet North–south trending rift zones

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Discussion on 'Was the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered by Zipingpu Reservoir?'

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Earthquake Science 2010年第6期23卷 577-581页

作者： Shiyong Zhou Kai Deng Cuiping Zhao Wanzheng Cheng School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100036 China Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610041 China

Some recent publications presented a result suggesting that Zipingpu reservoir hastened the occurrence of the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by tens to hundreds of years. Their researches calculated the Coulomb stress change induced by Zipingpu reservoir on the rupturing fault of Wenchuan earthquake. Their results, however, are critically dependent upon the 3-D event location, reservoir location, and the fault plane orientation. We repeated Ge et al.＇s work in this paper and found that an improper dip angle parameter of their 2-D fault model might lead to a wrong conclusion. Both the modeling results based on the 2-D model and 3-D model with proper fault parameters will show Coulomb stress changes alone were neither large enough nor had the correct orientation to affect the occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake, which supports our recent argument based on the local seismicity analysis and the induced Coulomb stress change calculation with a 3-D model.

关键词： Wenchuan earthquake reservoir induced seismicity Coulomb stress

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Inferring seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China based on the modern earthquake catalogue (1980-2019)

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Earthquake Science 2020年第3期33卷 107-115页

作者： Ziyao Xiong Shiyong Zhou Jiancang Zhuang School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo 1908562Japan

Based on the modern earthquake catalogue,the incomplete centroidal voronoi tessellation(ICVT)method was used in this study to estimate the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China.We calculated spatial distributions of the total seismic hazard and background seismic hazard in this area.The Bayesian delaunay tessellation smoothing method put forward by Ogata was used to calculate the spatial distributions of b-value.The results show that seismic hazards in Sichuan-Yunan region are high,and areas with relatively high hazard values are distributed along the main faults,while seismic hazards in Sichuan basin are relatively low.

关键词： seismic hazard analysis Voronoi tessellation spatial smoothing b-value

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Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第9期60卷 1632-1644页

作者： YANG HongFeng LIU YaJing WEI Meng ZHUANG JianCang zhou shiyong Earth System Science Programme Faculty of Science Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 999077 China Earth and Planetary Sciences McGill UniversityMontreal Quebec H3A 2A7 Canada Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode lsland Narragansett Rhode lsland 02882 USA Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo 190-8562 Japan ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

It has long been known that human activities such as waste fluid disposal and reservoir impoundment may cause earthquakes. Recently, anthropogenic activities to tackle the increasing energy demand and to address climate change issues are also reported to induce earthquakes. These activities have a common attribute in that fluids are injected and extracted underground and induce spatiotemporal changes of pore pressure and stress, which may cause slip on faults. Induced earthquakes not only pose significant impacts on seismic hazard assessment and preparation, but also raise the question to the society as how to balance the economic needs of resources development and the public's concerns about potential environmental impacts. Here we review the observations of fluid-injection/extraction induced earthquakes, ground deformation associated with these activities, and their physical mechanisms. Furthermore, we discuss the influences of induced earthquakes on seismic hazard models, regulatory policies on these anthropogenic activities, and current development of academic, industrial and government initiatives and collaborations in order to understand this intriguing phenomenon and address associated challenges.

关键词：诱发地震能源开发地震灾害评估潜在环境影响人类活动地下流体水库蓄水废液处理

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