The spatiotemporal variation of the b-value and its tectonic implications in North China

作     者：Yujie Zheng Shiyong Zhou 

作者机构：School of Earth and Space SciencesPeking University 

出 版 物：《Earthquake Science》 (地震学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第27卷第3期

页      面：301-310页

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 0819[工学-矿业工程] 07[理学] 070801[理学-固体地球物理学] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0814[工学-土木工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41274052) the Seismological Research Project of China (Grant No.201208009) financially supported by Peking University President’s Research Funding for undergraduate students (2012–2013) 

主　　题：Improved Bayesian approach B-splines b-value Frequency-magnitude distribution North China Earthquake hazard analysis 

摘      要：In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.