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Fields experiments in North China show no decrease in winter wheat yields with night temperature increased by 2.0-2.5°C

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Science China Earth Sciences 2012年第6期55卷 1021-1027页

作者： fang shibo TAN KaiYan REN SanXue ZHANG XinShi ZHAO Junfang Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100093 China

The trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in global warming indicated that the daily minimum temperature （Tmin） has risen more than twice as fast as the daily maximum temperature （Tmax） during the 20th century. Most researchers have focused on how the crops respond to daily mean temperature, whereas few controlled experiments were carried out to in- vestigate how the crops respond to the Train rise. In particular, no experiment research has reported on how crops respond to the higher night temperature, which was the main trend in the climate warming. Taking winter wheat as the test crop, we investi- gated how the winter wheat growth and yields responded to the higher night temperature. In the field experiments, infrared heaters were used to increase higher night temperature （HNT） by about 2.5℃ in contrast to the normal night temperature （CK） in two whole growth durations of winter wheat in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 in North China. The results indicated that, com- pared to the CK treatment, winter wheat yield did not decline in HNT treatment, which increased temperatures by 2.0-2.5℃ in both Wanner year （WY） and Colder year （CY）. Furthermore, winter wheat yield in CY increased significantly in HNT treatment. HNT treatment in CY could significantly promote tillering and increase the effective panicles, which increased grain yield significantly （by more than 30% compared with CK）. HNT treatment in CY contributed to an increase in the effective panicles and Kernels significantly, although making a significant reduction in 1000-grain weight, but did not lead to the yield decline. Under the HNT treatment, the whole growth duration of the winter wheat was shortened and the phenological dates were earlier except for the beginning of overwintering; the beginnings of the overwintering phase were postponed substantially and the ends of the overwintering phase were ahead of date compared to CK, which shortened the duration of overwintering considerably. We draw on our ow

关键词： climate change higher night temperature winter wheat yields adaptation

Integrating remotely sensed water stress factor with a crop growth model for winter wheat yield estimation in the North China Plain during 2008–2018

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The Crop Journal 2022年第5期10卷 1470-1482页

作者： Wen Zhuo shibo fang Dong Wu Lei Wang Mengqian Li Jiansu Zhang Xinran Gao State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044JiangsuChina School of Geography and Earth Sciences McMaster UniversityHamiltonOntario L8S 4L8Canada

Accurate estimation of regional-scale crop yield under drought conditions allows farmers and agricultural agencies to make well-informed decisions and guide agronomic management. However, few studies have focused on using the crop model data assimilation(CMDA) method for regional-scale winter wheat yield estimation under drought stress and partial-irrigation conditions. In this study, we developed a CMDA framework to integrate remotely sensed water stress factor(MOD16 ET PET) with the WOFOST model using an ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) for winter wheat yield estimation at the regional scale in the North China Plain(NCP) during 2008–2018. According to our results, integration of MOD16 ET PETwith the WOFOST model produced more accurate estimates of regional winter wheat yield than open-loop simulation. The correlation coefficient of simulated yield with statistical yield increased for each year and error decreased in most years, with r ranging from 0.28 to 0.65 and RMSE ranging from 700.08 to1966.12 kg ha. Yield estimation using the CMDA method was more suitable in drought years(r = 0.47, RMSE = 919.04 kg ha) than in normal years(r = 0.30, RMSE = 1215.51 kg ha). Our approach performed better in yield estimation under drought conditions than the conventional empirical correlation method using vegetation condition index(VCI). This research highlighted the potential of assimilating remotely sensed water stress factor, which can account for irrigation benefit, into crop model for improving the accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation at the regional scale especially under drought conditions, and this approach can be easily adapted to other regions and crops.

关键词： WOFOST Evapotranspiration Drought Data assimilation Winter wheat yield

Response to climate warming of winter wheat varieties bred across different eras in the North China Plain

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第12期67卷 3855-3867页

作者： Zhaoyang JIANG shibo fang Dong WU Xin LIU Huarong ZHAO Jie GUO Xinru ZHANG Yongchao ZHU Xuan LI Yingjie WU Dingrong WU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Resources and Environment Anhui Agricultural UniversityHefei 230036China Raoyang National Climate Observatory Hengshui 053900China Meteorological Observation Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Meteorological Data Center Shandong Meteorological BureauJinan 250031China

By the 2000s,the winter wheat regions in the North China Plain had undergone six major variety *** is crucial to know how the winter wheat varieties bred across different eras respond to climate change,especially climate *** 2017 to 2022,we conducted a two-factor,two-level field experiment at Gucheng and Raoyang,with a temperature difference of 1℃existing between the two *** experiment used ten winter wheat varieties bred from the 1960s to the 2000s and included both fertilization and no fertilization *** experiment aimed to separate the effects of warming and fertilization on the growth and development of the winter wheat varieties,thereby revealing the differences in their responses to *** the winter wheat varieties across different eras had higher yields in warmer *** separating the effects of warming and fertilization,the rate of yield increase decreased with the breeding eras of varieties due to the impact of warming ***,it still increased with the eras due to the combined effects of warming and *** varieties from the 1980s and 2000s,there is a strong correlation between higher fertility and warmer climate *** has a yield gain effect,significantly amplifying the yield increase under fertilization for the middle and late ***,the average yield increase for varieties from the 2000s reached 67%in warmer *** has increased the average daily minimum temperature during the winter wheat growing *** has significantly reduced the number of days below zero degrees Celsius,shortening the overwintering stage and thereby shortening the growth period of winter ***,the effective developmental days(>0℃days)maintained a consistent *** promotes the development of large tillers,increases leaf area and dry matter accumulation,and reduces the ratio of sterile *** varieties from the 2000s had the lowest ratio of sterile spi

关键词： Climate warming Winter wheat varieties Breeding Fertilization Response

Factors influencing small-scale distribution of 10 macrolichens in King George Island,West Antarctica

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Advances in Polar Science 2012年第3期23卷 141-148页

作者： LIU Huajie WU Qingfeng fang shibo Key Laboratory of Microbial Diversity Research and Application of Hebei Province College of Life SciencesHebei UniversityBaoding 071002China Institute of Eco-environment and Agro-meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Lichens are among the main primary colonists in most terrestrial ecosystems of Antarctica, where the effects of environmental factors on spatial distribution of lichens are essential to understanding the functioning of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. We measured abundance of 10 frequently observed macrolichens and 15 environmental factors at a small scale （20 cm× 20 cm）, in the ice-free areas of Fildes Peninsula and Ardley Island, King George Island, West Antarctica, and assessed the effects of environmental factors on the local distribution of these lichens. Canonical correspondence analyses （CCA） show that 8 out of 15 environmental factors, belonging to 4 sets of variables, are important in spatial distribution of the 10 lichens. Variation partitioning analyses show that most of the variation in distribution of the 10 lichens is described by the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, bird influence and microclimate and topography, whereas human impact has no significant effects.

关键词： bird disturbance canonical correspondence analysis lichen ecology maritime Antarctica soil accumulation

基于微波数据与光学数据集成的机器学习技术在作物产量估算中的应用

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地球信息科学学报 2021年第6期23卷 1082-1091页

作者：张菊房世波刘汉湖成都理工大学国土资源部地学空间信息技术重点实验室成都610059 中国气象科学研究院生态与农业气象研究所北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警协同创新中心南京210044

各类光学植被指数已成功地应用于各种植被监测与作物产量估算中,但这些指数易受大气状况的影响。由星载微波辐射计得到的植被光学厚度数据(VOD)与植被密度、含水量密切相关,数据可全天候获得,在农业遥感监测中呈现着巨大的潜力。作为来... 详细信息

各类光学植被指数已成功地应用于各种植被监测与作物产量估算中,但这些指数易受大气状况的影响。由星载微波辐射计得到的植被光学厚度数据(VOD)与植被密度、含水量密切相关,数据可全天候获得,在农业遥感监测中呈现着巨大的潜力。作为来自不同传感器的遥感数据,微波遥感数据与光学遥感数据可以提供不同波长范围内的植被信息。为了更准确地进行作物产量估算,本研究提出将微波遥感数据与光学遥感数据共同应用于冬小麦单产估算中。研究选择L波段微波辐射计SMAP卫星的VOD数据与MODIS的标准归一化植被指数NDVI、增强型植被指数EVI、叶面积指数LAI、光合有效辐射分量FPAR数据作为研究变量,分别使用BP神经网络、GA-BP神经网络和PSO-BP神经网络建立冬小麦产量估算模型。结果表明:3种神经网络回归模型的P值均小于0.001,通过了显著性检验。GA-BP神经网络回归模型的估算值与真实值在3种神经网络回归模型中表现了最高的相关性(R=0.755)与最低的均方根误差(RMSE=529.145 kg/hm^(2)),平均绝对误差(MAE=425.168 kg/hm^(2))和平均相对误差(MRE=6.530%)。为了分析多源遥感数据的结合在作物产量估算中的优势,研究同时构建了仅使用NDVI和LAI,使用NDVI、EVI、LAI、FPAR等光学数据进行冬小麦产量估算的3种GA-BP神经网络回归模型作为对比。结果表明,使用微波遥感数据与光学遥感数建立的GA-BP神经网络回归模型较上述3种作为对比的GA-BP神经网络回归模型的相关系数R值分别提高了0.163,0.229与0.056,均方根误差RMSE分别降低了122.334、158.462和46.923 kg/hm^(2),使用多源遥感数据的组合可以很好地提高作物产量估算的准确性。

关键词：遥感植被光学厚度光学植被指数 BP神经网络遗传算法粒子群算法冬小麦产量估算

NDVI与气候因子关系在不同时间尺度上的结果差异

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遥感学报 2016年第3期20卷 481-490页

作者：沈斌房世波余卫国中国气象科学研究院北京100081 抚顺市气象局辽宁抚顺113006

植被指数是反映地表植被覆盖状况的重要参数,分析气候因子与植被指数间的相互关系有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响,然而当前研究有两种分析植被指数与气候因子关系的方法,分别为分析植被指数与生长季内和生长季间气候因子的关系,然而这... 详细信息

植被指数是反映地表植被覆盖状况的重要参数,分析气候因子与植被指数间的相互关系有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响,然而当前研究有两种分析植被指数与气候因子关系的方法,分别为分析植被指数与生长季内和生长季间气候因子的关系,然而这两种法差异如何,何种方法更为合适需要进一步分析。利用2000年—2009年生长季的MODIS的归一化植被指数NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)数据集和藏北那曲地区3个气象站逐月气象资料(月平均气温、≥0℃活动积温和月降水量),分析比较了生长季内和生长季间气候因子对植被生长影响的差异,并分析了两种方法的优劣。结果表明:(1)生长季内植被NDVI与同期气温和降水量均呈高度正相关,生长季内时滞时间尺度为1个月时,植被NDVI对月平均气温及降水响应均最为强烈。(2)生长季间NDVI与同期降水量相关性并不明显,气候因子的滞后效应在生长季间也较弱。(3)生长季内和生长季间植被NDVI与气候因子的关系所得出的结论有一定差异性,可能是因为两方面的原因:生长季内植被NDVI与水热因子的高相关性与中国季风季候造成的高温多雨出现在夏季有关,而生长季内高水热条件与高植被指数对应的多年重复必然造伪的高相关系数,但这种相关性不一定能真实反映植被与水热条件的关系,而生长季间水热等气候因子与植被指数年际变化相关性分析不存在水热与高植被指数同期问题,更能真实反映气候因子年际变化对植被的影响。

关键词： NDVI 气候因子时间尺度气候变化 MODIS 植被指数

沙漠蝗群对印巴边境植被的影响及其未来可能发展趋势

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遥感学报 2020年第3期24卷 326-332页

作者：房世波韩威裴志方中国气象科学研究院生态与农业气象研究所北京100081 国家气象中心北京100081

2020年初非洲东北和印巴边境沙漠蝗群席卷多个国家,大面积农田及自然植被被啃食,是什么气候条件促成了此次沙漠蝗灾?距离中国最近的印巴边境蝗群成为研究以及社会关注的热点,蝗灾对当地植被的影响如何?其发展趋势如何?从气候学上分析,... 详细信息

2020年初非洲东北和印巴边境沙漠蝗群席卷多个国家,大面积农田及自然植被被啃食,是什么气候条件促成了此次沙漠蝗灾?距离中国最近的印巴边境蝗群成为研究以及社会关注的热点,蝗灾对当地植被的影响如何?其发展趋势如何?从气候学上分析,蝗灾历史上是否曾经或者未来是否向印度东边迁飞而进入中国呢?本研究利用长时间序列的卫星遥感数据和气象气候观测数据,对沙漠蝗群可能扩展趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)由于沙漠蝗群的啃食,2020年1月和2月,在蝗群分布区大面积植被区的归一化植被指数较常年大幅度下降,2月(2月3日数据)的啃食面积较1月明显扩大;(2)发生在2018年5月和10月两次印度洋飓风和2019年12月强热带风暴等几个罕见气旋给非洲和阿拉伯半岛带来的强降水,是本次非洲-西亚蝗灾的形成重要原因;(3)从影响沙漠蝗群起飞的气温和沙漠蝗虫适合的降水条件来看,历史上或未来沙漠蝗群迁徙到印度东边的机会很少,进入中国的可能性非常小。

关键词：沙漠蝗群印巴边境卫星遥感数据气象观测数据热带风暴归一化植被指数

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新羊石隧道坍方处理施工技术

铁道建筑 2007年第9期47卷 29-31页

作者：房士波中铁二十局集团第四工程有限公司山东青岛266061

文章介绍新羊石隧道采用钢管桩和大管棚处理隧道洞口冒顶坍塌实例,对坍方原因进行了详细的分析,以确定处理方案,探讨了软岩大跨浅埋隧道预防坍塌措施,对同类施工提供一定的参考价值。

关键词：隧道钢管桩坍方处理

近50年来中国地面太阳辐射变化及其空间分布

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生态学报 2014年第24期34卷 7444-7453页

作者：齐月房世波周文佐西南大学地理科学学院重庆400715 中国气象科学研究院生态环境与农业气象研究所北京100081

基于国内外有关地面太阳辐射研究,并根据中国大气气溶胶的有关研究,综合分析了近50年中国地面太阳辐射变化特征,并分析了我国各个地区、不同城市间地面太阳辐射的变化差异。结果表明:与全球大部分地区类似,中国的地面太阳辐射经历了一... 详细信息

基于国内外有关地面太阳辐射研究,并根据中国大气气溶胶的有关研究,综合分析了近50年中国地面太阳辐射变化特征,并分析了我国各个地区、不同城市间地面太阳辐射的变化差异。结果表明:与全球大部分地区类似,中国的地面太阳辐射经历了一个从减少到增多的过程,即所谓的地球由"变暗"到"变亮";中国各个地区发生相同的变化过程,大致以1990年为界,之前以减少趋势为主,之后逐渐增加,不同地区太阳辐射变化幅度有所差异;分析了城市类型和气溶胶厚度对太阳辐射变化的影响,多数大城市和工业城市的太阳辐射下降幅度大于中小型非工业城市,气溶胶光学厚度的分布与太阳辐射下降趋势呈相似分布特征,说明城市工业化及其产生的气溶胶污染对太阳辐射的下降起着重要作用。

关键词：地面太阳辐射全球变暗气溶胶雾霾