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U.S. Resilience to large-scale power outages in 2002–2019

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2022年第2期3卷 128-135页

作者： Aman Ankit Zhanlin Liu scott b.miles Youngjun Choe Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98105USA Department of Human Centered Design&Engineering University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98105USA

Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limitedin its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. Here, we provide one of the most comprehensiveanalyses of large-scale power outages in the U.S. from 2002 to 2019. This analysis is based on the outage datacollected under U.S. federal mandates that concern large blackouts, typically of transmission systems and excludemuch more common but smaller blackouts, typically, of distribution systems. We categorized the data into fouroutage causes and computed reliability metrics, which are commonly used for distribution-level small outagesonly but useful for analyzing large blackouts. Our spatiotemporal analysis reveals six of the most resilient *** since 2010, improvement of power resilience against natural hazards in the south and northeast regions,and a disproportionately large number of human attacks for its population in the Western Electricity CoordinatingCouncil region. Our regression analysis identifies several statistically significant predictors and hypotheses forU.S. resilience to large blackouts. Furthermore, we propose a novel framework for analyzing outage data usingdifferential weighting and influential points to better understand power resilience. We share curated data andcode as Supplementary Materials.

关键词： Power outage Reliability Natural hazard Cyber attack Sabotage Operational maintenance

The Nature and Impact of Late Imperial Chinese Academies:A Review of Some Recent Publications in China

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Frontiers of Education in China 2015年第4期10卷 634-656页

作者： Steven b.miles Department of History Washington University in St.LouisSt.LouisMO 63130-4899USA

This review essay analyzes the historiography of Confucian academies(shuyuan)in imperial China,focusing on five representative books published in China between 2008 and 2014,including two new editions of books originally published in 1995 and *** five authors share a deep concern about the nature of academies,particularly their relationship with the state.A secondary theme that these books address is the impact that academies had on late imperial Chinese culture and *** together,these five works show how research on academies in imperial China has evolved over the past two decades.

关键词： academies shuyuan historiography imperial China

Climate change,thermal niches,extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of toad-headed lizards,Phrynocephalus,in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Integrative Zoology 2018年第4期13卷 450-470页

作者： barry SINERVO Donald b.miles Yayong WU Fausto R.MÉNDEZ-DE LA CRUZ Sebastian KIRCHHOF Yin QI The Institute for the Study of the Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts University of Californiaand Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA Department of biological Sciences Ohio UniversityAthensOhioUSA Chengdu Institute of biology Chinese Academy of SciencesChengduSichuanChina Laboratory of Herpetology Institute of BiologyUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico Museum of Natural History Leibniz-Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Scienceand Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research(BBIB)BerlinGermany

Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for *** this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral *** method downscales operative environmental temperatures,which restrict hours of activity of lizards,hr,for present-day climate(1975)and future climate scenarios(2070).We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards(or taxa in species complexes)drawn from literature and museum *** analysis is phylogenetically informed,because some clades may be more sensitive to rising *** limits for computed hr predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value *** the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario,we predict extirpation of 64%of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species,and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being *** tandem with global strategies of lower CO_(2) emissions,we propose regional strategies for establishing new national parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species *** propose that evolved acclimatization–maternal plasticity–may ameliorate risk,but is poorly *** studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by±1℃.We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming–a *** discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution.

关键词： climate change eco-physiology extinction model maternal effect lizards

Restimate:Recovery Estimation Tool for Resilience Planning

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第1期5卷 47-63页

作者： scott miles Megan Ly Nick Terry Youngjun Choe Department of Human Centered Design&Engineering Campus Box 352315University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98195United States of America Department of Industrial&Systems Engineering Box 352650University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98195United States of America

The *** Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in *** NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement framework for the jurisdiction’s resilience against a scenario *** framework centers around tables of expected and desired recovery times for selected community assets,such as electricity,water,and natural gas *** NIST Guide does not provide a method for estimating the expected recovery ***,building high-fidelity computer models for such estimations requires substantial resources that even larger ju-risdictions cannot *** most promising approach to recovery time estimation is to systematically use data elicited from people to tap into the wisdom of the(knowledgeable)*** paper describes a novel research-through-design project to enable the computer-supported elicitation of recovery time series *** work is the first in the literature to examine people’s ability to estimate recovery curves and how design in-fluences such *** main contribution to resilience planning is three-fold:development of a new elicitation tool called Restimate,understanding its potential user base,and providing insights into how it can facilitate resilience *** is the first tool to enable evidence-based expert elicitation in any community with limited resources for resilience *** resilience planning,those who facilitate high-stakes planning activities under large uncertainties(e.g.,mission-critical system design and planning)will benefit from a similar research-through-design process.

关键词： expert elicitation disaster natural hazard infrastructure community resilience restoration user-centered design computer-supported cooperative work

The Upriver Reach of a Delta Town： Jiujiang Migrants in the West River basin, Sixteenth--Nineteenth Centuries

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Frontiers of History in China 2013年第2期8卷 153-175页

作者： Steven b. miles Department of History Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO 63130-4899 USA

This article situates the Pearl River delta market town of Jiujiang within a system of market towns and cities along the West River and its tributaries in southern China. Exploring the history of this town as an emigrant community, this article follows the upstream movement of officials, civil service examinees, merchants, and permanent settlers along the West River basin between the sixteenth century and the nineteenth century. The trajectory of migration from this market town was shaped by the geographical factors of the West River system. At the same time, migration, which was related both to strategies that Jiujiang families embraced for socioeconomic advancement and to policies that the Ming and Qing states adopted for controlling the southwestern frontier, played an important role in the historical construction of a unified region linked by economic ties and personal networks.

关键词： market town migration region Ming Qing West River Pearl Riverdelta

一个三角洲城镇的上游区域:16—19世纪西江流域的九江移民

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四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版） 2014年第1期 25-35页

作者：麦哲维邹薇圣路易斯华盛顿大学历史系四川大学历史文化学院四川成都610064

本文将珠江三角洲九江集镇置于中国南部西江及其支流的城镇系统中,关注16至19世纪沿西江流域上游活动的官员、科举考生、商人和定居者,探索其作为一个移民社区的历史。西江水系的地理因素形塑了九江移民的迁移轨迹。与此同时,移民不仅... 详细信息

本文将珠江三角洲九江集镇置于中国南部西江及其支流的城镇系统中,关注16至19世纪沿西江流域上游活动的官员、科举考生、商人和定居者,探索其作为一个移民社区的历史。西江水系的地理因素形塑了九江移民的迁移轨迹。与此同时,移民不仅同九江的各个家族为了发展社会经济而采取的策略有关,也同明清政府控制西南边疆的政策有关,在一个由经济纽带和个人关系网联系起来的统一区域的历史构建中扮演了重要角色。

关键词：集镇移民区域明朝清朝西江珠江三角洲

Fire occurrence in relation to bamboo dominance in the Qinling Mountains of China: Evidence from phytolith and charcoal records in Holocene sediments

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Science China Earth Sciences 2015年第7期58卷 1182-1190页

作者： Courtney Marie RAYLE scott b.FRANKLIN LU ZhiJun School of biological Sciences University of Northern Colorado Key Laboratory of Aquatic botany and Watershed Ecology the Chinese Academy of Sciences

he internal genetic clock of semelparous mast-flowering bamboo species creates gregarious regions of flowering and death, thus leading to fuel-load accumulation that potentially promotes fire（Fire-Cycle Hypothesis）. Higher abundance of bamboo could be expected to provide greater fuel loads after flowering. Here, we investigated the possible link between bamboo dominance and fire occurrence. As the main food source for the giant panda in the Qinling Mountains of China, bashania fargesii（Farges Canebrake） and Fargesia qinlingensis（Arrow bamboo） dominate lower（1000–1900 m） and higher elevations（1800–2700 m）, respectively. Four soil profiles（elevation ranging from 1240 to 2170 m） in areas of known recent bamboo flowering events（~1980） and adjacent non-flowering sites were assessed for phytoliths and charcoal. Characteristic phytoliths were chosen to describe bamboo dynamics, and charcoal particles were extracted from the soil to reconstruct fire history. Carbon 14 dating of soil charcoal samples was conducted using an accelerator mass spectrometry technique. In addition, we chose two depths（28–52 and 90–100 cm） in one bashania profile（b. fargesii forest） and one Fargesia profile（F. qinlingensis forest） for phytolith dating. Our findings indicate that bamboo has been a dominant component of these ecosystems almost for the entire profile; some 6400 yrs for bashania and ca. 10000 yrs for the Fargesia. It is also clear from the charcoal and phytolith data that bamboo abundance and recent mast flowering were significantly related to fire occurrence for lower elevation bashania while the higher elevation Fargesia was not. One of the four profiles had chronological charcoal records throughout and the oldest charcoal aged was ~1410 yr bP, suggesting an anthropogenic origin. The mixing of phytolith and charcoal made it unrealistic to describe temporal dynamics of bamboo and fire events, and thus our interpretation is cognizant of the dating discrepancies and conservative（less-sp

关键词： bamboo dynamics bashania Fargesia fire cycle hypothesis phytolith Qinling Mountains

Spatially biased dispersal of acorns by a scatter-hoarding corvid may accelerate passive restoration of oak habitat on California＇s largest island

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Current Zoology 2017年第4期63卷 363-367页

作者： Mario b. PESENDORFER T. scott SILLETT scott A. MORRISON School of biological Sciences University of Nebraska - Lincoln 348 Manter Hall Lincoln NE 68588-0118 USA Migratory bird Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park MRC 5503 Washington D.C. 20013-7012 USA Cornell Lab of Ornithology 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd Ithaca NY 14850 USA The Nature Conservancy 4th Floor 201 Mission Street San Francisco CA 94105 USA

Scatter hoarding by corvids （crows, jays, magpies, and nutcrackers） provides seed dispersal for many large-seeded plants, including oaks and pines. When hoarding seeds, corvids often choose nonrandom locations throughout the landscape, resulting in differential survival of seeds. In the context of habitat restoration, such disproportional storing of seeds in areas suitable for germin- ation and establishment can accelerate expansion and recovery of large-seeded tree populations and their associated ecosystems. Here, we investigate the spatial preferences of island scrub jays Aphelocoma insularis during scatter hoarding of acorns （Quercus spp.） on Santa Cruz Island. We use a large behavioral data set on the birds＇ behavior in combination with seedling surveys and spatial analysis to determine whether 1） island scrub jays disproportionally cache seeds in specific habitat types, and 2） whether the preferred habitat type is suitable for oak regeneration. Our results show that the jays nonrandomly cache acorns across the landscape; they use chaparral and coastal sage scrub disproportionally while avoiding open and grassy areas. The areas used most often for caching were also the areas with the highest oak seedling densities. We discuss the potential role of these findings for the recovery of Santa Cruz Island＇s oak habitat since the 1980s.

关键词： Aphelocoma insularis directional dispersal habitat restoration Quercus spp. scatter hoarding seed dispersal.

Effective goaf gas capture design at Ravensworth Underground Mine

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International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 2014年第3期24卷 379-383页

作者： miles brown scott Hobden Drive Mining Pty Ltd Ravensworth Underground Mine NSW 2330 Australia

This paper highlights a reliable goaf gas capture system developed and used at Ravensworth Under-ground Mine since its trial in 2009. The method utilises horizontal holes drilled from underground sites and connected to an underground gas pipeline. This system incorporates a gas suction and flaring plant designed specifically for this method. The current method has captured effectively a total longwall, and adjacent goaf gas accounts for over 85%. The design of the holes drilled has been the success of the gas flow reliability. The flow is extraordinarily consistent and predictable. The management of the under-ground pipeline determines the overall reliability of flow. The design has resulted in Ravensworth Man-agement being confident to remove a gas bearing bleeder roadway and still manage the existing tailgate roadway for allowing access as required. The reduction of CO2 equivalent emissions recorded is approx-imately 0.35 ？ 106 tons annually. This design has further improvements to be added to allow use at any other site with gas in the overlying strata.

关键词： Gas capture Greenhouse gas emission reduction Directional y dril ed holes Coal