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COVID-19 transmission in *** buses:A scenario-based approach with agent-based simulation modeling(ABSM)

Communications in Transportation Research 2023年第1期3卷 72-80页

作者： sachraa g.borjigin Qian He Deb A.Niemeier Department of Civil&Environmental Engineering University of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742USA

The transit bus environment is considered one of the primary sources of transmission of the COVID-19(SARSCoV-2)*** disease transmission in public buses remains a challenge,especially with uncertainties in passenger boarding,alighting,and onboard *** there are initial findings on the effectiveness of some of the mitigation policies(such as face-covering and ventilation),evidence is scarce on how these policies could affect the onboard transmission risk under a realistic bus setting considering different headways,boarding and alighting patterns,and seating capacity *** study examines the specific policy regimes that transit agencies implemented during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in USA,in which it brings crucial insights on combating current and future *** use an agent-based simulation model(ABSM)based on standard design characteristics for urban buses in USA and two different service frequency settings(10-min and 20-min headways).We find that wearing face-coverings(surgical masks)significantly reduces onboard transmission rates,from no mitigation rates of 85%in higher-frequency buses and 75%in lower-frequency buses to 12.5%.The most effective prevention outcome is the combination of KN-95 masks,open window policies,and half-capacity seating control during higher-frequency bus services,with an outcome of nearly 0%onboard infection *** results advance understanding of COVID-19 risks in the urban bus environment and contribute to effective mitigation policy design,which is crucial to ensuring passenger *** findings of this study provide important policy implications for operational adjustment and safety protocols as transit agencies seek to plan for future emergencies.

关键词： COVID-19 Transit buses Indoor transmission Mitigation strategies Agent-based simulation modeling(ABSM)

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