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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 365-368页

作者： sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this study,physical mechanism of the impacts of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)on decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)was explored using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP).The simulation results indicate that the decadal warming of the SST over the tropical Atlantic after the late 1970s could have significantly enhanced the convection over the *** enhanced convection would have strengthened the local meridional circulation over the Eastern Atlantic-North Africa-Western Europe region,exciting a meridional *** teleconnection might have brought the signal of the tropical Atlantic SST to the Extratropics,consequently activating the variability of the eastern part of the SNAO southern center,which led to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center around the late *** physical processes are highly consistent with the previous observations.

关键词： summer North Atlantic Oscillation tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature teleconnection decadal change simulation

Interdecadal variability of the large-scale extreme hot event frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin and its related atmospheric patterns

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 63-70页

作者： LI Rong-Xia sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Based on daily maximum temperature data from Chinese weather stations for the period 1960- 2013, the characteristics of the interdecadal variability of large-scale extreme hot event （EHE） frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin （MLYR） are analyzed. It is found that the frequency of large-scale EHE over the MLYR experiences two significant interdecadal changes, around the early 1970s and early 2000s, having a more-less-more variability shape during the past half century. Furthermore, the EHE frequency interdecadal variability-related atmospheric circulation patterns are diagnosed. The results indicate the western Pacific subtropical high could not be the dominant atmospheric circulation associated with the interdecadal variability of the large-scale EHE frequency over the MLYR. In contrast, the dominant teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent, which is represented by the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the 200 hPa geopotential height, is closely related to the interdecadal variability of the EHE frequency over the MLYR. The results of this study deepen our understanding of the variability of the EHE frequency over the MLYR and its possible mechanism.

关键词： Extreme hot event decadalvariability teleconnection EOF

Possible Impact of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation on the North American Summer Monsoon

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第4期3卷 232-236页

作者： sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science Beijing 100029 China

This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?*** results show that these two systems are closely *** the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon *** opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring *** analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the *** was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two *** variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical *** SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon *** these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM ***,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation North American summer monsoon tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature prediction Bermuda High

Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第3期5卷 231-234页

作者： sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science Beijing 100029 China

This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.

关键词： summer North Atlantic Oscillation extreme hot events total cloud cover solar radiation

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 499-503页

作者： sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

关键词： precipitation extreme precipitation decadal variability

Sensitivity of Climate Changes to CO_2 Emissions in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第5期7卷 422-427页

作者： CHEN Huo-Po sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.

关键词： sensitivity climate extreme CO2 warming China CMIP5

Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China:Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第1期7卷 67-73页

作者： CHEN Huo-Po sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability,inter-model variability,and scenario *** from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of *** significant differences were found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China,with the two datasets both showing future *** uncertainty can be attributed firstly to internal variability,and then to both inter-model and internal *** analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has increased by about 10%–60% with respect to CMIP3,despite significant improvements in the latest generation of *** increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades,and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter,especially by the end of this *** change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role,but makes a negative contribution to begin with,and then an increase later.

关键词： precipitation projection uncertainty CMIP3 CMIP5

Drought Response to Air Temperature Change over China on the Centennial Scale

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第3期8卷 113-119页

Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU） for the period 1901-2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have increased evidently across China, except for some regions in eastern China. This increase is much stronger in northern China compared to southern China, especially in Northwest and North China. These change characteris- tics of drought are closely associated with air temperature change, with the severe droughts in the major drought episodes of the last century generally coinciding with higher temperatures. The significantly increasing trend of drought in China based on observations only appears when considering the effects of air temperature change, which can explain -49% of droughts in observations and 30%-65% of droughts in Coupled Model Intereomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） model simulations. Furthermore, the response of drought to air temperature change generally increases as the drought time scale increases. Furthermore, drought shows relatively high sensitivity in spring and early summer in China on the centennial scale.

关键词： drought air temperature response centennial scale China

How Large Precipitation Changes over Global Monsoon Regions by CMIP5 Models?

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 306-311页

作者： CHEN Huo-Po sun jian-qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Future changes in precipitation over global monsoon domains and their adjacent dry regions are investigated using present-day climate simulations(1986–2005)and future climate simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5)scenario by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)*** the present-day climate simulations,high reproducibility of the extents of global monsoon domains and dry regions is observed from the multi-model ensemble(MME)result;the associated local summer precipitation variation and its interannual variability are also successfully *** the future,the global monsoon domains are projected to be expanded,while the dry regions are expected to initially increase and then *** summer precipitation and its variability show significant increases over most global monsoon domains and obvious decreases over their adjacent dry *** results indicate that currently wet regions will become wetter and dry areas will be dryer under global warming *** analysis indicates that changes in summer precipitation over global monsoon and dry regions can be interpreted as moisture convergence changes associated with changes in horizontal moisture transport.

关键词： CMIP5 global monsoon summer precipitation moisture convergence projection

Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 ℃ global warming target

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 102-111页

作者： WANG Tao MIAO Jia-Peng sun jian-qi FU Yuan-Hai Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon Precipitation 1.5 ℃ global warming target CMIP5