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Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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Chinese Geographical Science 2015年第6期25卷 657-671页

作者： LI Na shi minjun SHANG Zhiyuan YUAN Yongna University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science Chinese Academy of Sciences

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

关键词： total energy consumption control energy quota allocation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model induced energytechnology improvements

Income Growth,Urbanization,Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2012年第2期10卷 120-128页

作者： Wang Yan shi minjun Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Communication University of China Beijing 100024China

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents' life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.

关键词： consumption-induced energy requirements incomegrowth urbanization life style change input-output analysis China

Water-saving Technologies,Solar Green House and Ecological Rehabilitation in Minqin Oasis of Gansu Province,China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2008年第3期6卷 73-82页

作者： Tao Weichun shi minjun Zhao Xuetao Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Beijing 100049 China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science CAS Beijing 100080 China

Land degradation and desertification have become severe environmental problems in arid areas due to excessive use of water resources. It is urgent to reduce agricultural water use for ecological rehabilitation, which may result in a decrease in agricultural production and farmer＇s welfare. This paper focused on the impacts of some main measures including extensions of watersaving irrigation, expanding solar green house and increasing off-farm employment, which are generally recognized to be important to alleviate water shortage and poverty. A bioconomic model is applied taking Minqin Oasis in Gansu Province as a case study site. Simulation results showed that the effect of expanding solar greenhouse was more positive than other ones so it drew more attention. On the view of the different effects between each irrigation zone, mixed policy patterns suitable for them are suggested. In Baqu, expanding solar greenhouse should be the most important, auxiliary with encouraging pipe irrigation. Inversely, with regard to Quanshan, the major attention should be paid to subsidy for pipe irrigation and it would be better to supply the off-farm employment opportunities to the households in Huqu, where the expanding of solar greenhouse should also be summoned. Finally, it should be noted that farmer＇s income would only resume to 90% of the current level in the short run by putting more effort into local policies. Thus, the ecological compensation is needed to ensure farmer＇s welfare.

关键词： water-saving technologies solar green house Minqin Oasis ecological rehabilitation

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2011年第3期2卷 124-133页

作者： Shenglii Zhou minjun shi Na Li Yongna Yuan Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Date Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

关键词： dynamic energy-environment-economy CGE model carbon tax mitigation effect economic impact

A study of benef its compensation mechanism for agricultural water rights trading under the restriction of ecological reconstruction:a case study of shiyang River basin

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Ecological Economy 2008年第4期4卷 454-461页

作者： Zhao Xuetao shi minjun Tao Weichun Graduate University Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 P. R. China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 P R. China

Agricultural water allocation system based on priority rights has caused regional conflicts and downstream ecological degradation. It is the urgent need to introduce the concept of the initial water rights and establish benefits compensation mechanism to resolve such problems. This paper takes the shiyang River basin as an example to calculate the opportunity cost of 0.97×10^8 m^3 of agricultural water encroached by the middle reach based on initial water right allocation system under which water is allocated in accordance with the ratio between agricultural population of two different regions concerning the downstream ecological reconstruction needs with Bio-economic model （BEM）. The results suggest that the total economic loss of Minqin County for ecological reconstruction amounts to 2.5 7×10^8 yuan, of which 1.68×10^8 yuan is ecological compensation, representing the economic loss Minqin suffered for ecological reconstruction which shouM burden beneficial groups of ecological reconstruction and 0.89 ×10^8 yuan is the economic loss Minqin suffered due to Liangzhou＇s encroachment behavior which should be compensated by Liangzhou.

关键词： Ecological reconstruction Water right trading, Benefit compensation shiyang River basin

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中国都市圈的产业分工与功能协同分析

地理学报 2024年第10期79卷 2495-2510页

作者：石敏俊孙艺文浙江大学公共管理学院杭州310058

都市圈正在成为支撑国家经济增长、促进区域协调发展和参与全球竞争合作的重要空间载体。国际上一般认为都市圈是1 h通勤圈,当前中国都市圈规划同时提出城市间产业分工协作的目标,希冀建成空间结构清晰、城市功能互补、产业分工协调的... 详细信息

都市圈正在成为支撑国家经济增长、促进区域协调发展和参与全球竞争合作的重要空间载体。国际上一般认为都市圈是1 h通勤圈,当前中国都市圈规划同时提出城市间产业分工协作的目标,希冀建成空间结构清晰、城市功能互补、产业分工协调的现代化都市圈。本文基于城市间投入产出分析,对中国都市圈内部的产业分工与功能协同展开研究。结果表明:①基于产业分工与功能协同,可以将中国都市圈分为单中心离散结构、核心—边缘结构、边缘拓展结构和多中心网络结构4种类型,多中心网络结构是都市圈空间结构演化的高级阶段;②中国都市圈的产业链空间网络多数由加工制造品生产环节网络流主导,首都、天津都市圈加工制造品生产环节网络流与同类型都市圈相比存在较大差距,成都、长株潭和广州都市圈生产性服务环节网络流存在明显提升空间;③若要将中国都市圈建设成为功能互补的产业协作圈,关键在于优化产业链空间网络,强化城市间功能协同,促进都市圈内部的空间融合;④长株潭、石家庄、成都和武汉等单中心离散结构都市圈应先向核心—边缘结构都市圈演化,南京、杭州等边缘拓展结构都市圈以及天津、深圳、广州和首都等核心—边缘结构都市圈应向多中心网络结构演化。

关键词：都市圈空间融合产业分工与功能协同产业链空间网络城市间投入产出表

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浸润性黏液腺癌分子机制及临床治疗研究进展

中国肺癌杂志 2024年第9期27卷 685-690页

作者：施旻均叶波上海市胸科医院上海交通大学医学院附属胸科医院胸外科上海200030

浸润性黏液腺癌(invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma,IMA)是肺腺癌的一种特殊亚型,其发病率占全部肺腺癌的2%-10%。IMA的治疗首选外科手术,传统化疗药物及靶向治疗药物对该疾病的疗效较差。与其他非黏液性肺腺癌亚型相比,IMA具有独特的... 详细信息

浸润性黏液腺癌(invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma,IMA)是肺腺癌的一种特殊亚型,其发病率占全部肺腺癌的2%-10%。IMA的治疗首选外科手术,传统化疗药物及靶向治疗药物对该疾病的疗效较差。与其他非黏液性肺腺癌亚型相比,IMA具有独特的预后、影像学及分子学特征。IMA的发病率极低,因此胸外科医生容易对此病缺乏认识,误诊为肺炎、结核等良性疾病。本文对IMA的影像学、临床病理特征、治疗方式及预后进行综述与讨论。

关键词：肺肿瘤浸润性黏液腺癌分子机制治疗

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京津冀建设世界级城市群的现状、问题和方向

中共中央党校学报 2017年第4期21卷 49-55页

作者：石敏俊中国人民大学经济学院北京海淀100872

京津冀建设世界级城市群,需要树立利益共同体和命运共同体的发展理念,通过以首都圈共同体为载体来将京津冀协同发展战略落到实处。首都圈共同体是跳出北京来思考首都的发展战略,按照"一城多点"的思路,规划建设首都圈新城新区,承接北京... 详细信息

京津冀建设世界级城市群,需要树立利益共同体和命运共同体的发展理念,通过以首都圈共同体为载体来将京津冀协同发展战略落到实处。首都圈共同体是跳出北京来思考首都的发展战略,按照"一城多点"的思路,规划建设首都圈新城新区,承接北京非首都功能疏解,为首都功能重构提供产业支撑。首都圈共同体要实行共建共享共管,构建产业发展共同体、创新共同体、绿色经济共同体三大发展机制。与此同时,应在增强河北的发展能力的基础上,通过推动公共服务均等化和以引促疏来实现区域内的产业转移和非首都功能疏解。

关键词：京津冀世界级城市群首都圈新城新区雄安新区

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中国生态脆弱带人地关系行为机制模型及应用

地理学报 2005年第1期60卷 165-174页

作者：石敏俊王涛筑波大学生命环境科学研究生院日本筑波中国科学院研究生院北京100049 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所兰州730000

以农牧交错带为研究对象,通过建立人地关系行为机制模型,探讨外部社会经济因素影响土地退化的机制,并重点就当前正在实施的退耕还林还草政策所带来的生态经济效果进行分析。模型拟合结果显示,利用玉米及农作物秸秆作为饲料,扩大舍饲动... 详细信息

以农牧交错带为研究对象,通过建立人地关系行为机制模型,探讨外部社会经济因素影响土地退化的机制,并重点就当前正在实施的退耕还林还草政策所带来的生态经济效果进行分析。模型拟合结果显示,利用玉米及农作物秸秆作为饲料,扩大舍饲动物饲养,或者扩大种植葵花或油料作物等商品作物以替代自给性作物糜子,将可以在不加剧水土流失的前提下增加农户收入。模型结果还显示,非农就业机会增加时,农户会减少坡地垦殖。这表明推进农村工业化和城镇化发展,增加农民非农就业机会,鼓励农民进城的政策对于黄土高原的水土保持也是有促进作用的。

关键词：中国生态脆弱带人地关系行为机制模型土地退化农村环境问题