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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios

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Frontiers of Medicine 2020年第5期14卷 613-622页

作者： Chen Xu Yinqiao Dong Xiaoyue Yu Huwen Wang Lhakpa Tsamlag Shuxian Zhang Ruijie Chang Zezhou Wang Yuelin Yu rusi long Ying Wang Gang Xu Tian Shen Suping Wang Xinxin Zhang Hui Wang Yong Cai School of Public Health Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Department of Environmental and Occupational Health School of Public HealthChina Medical UniversityShenyang 110122China Department of Cancer Prevention Shanghai Cancer CenterFudan UniversityDepartment of OncologyShanghai Medical CollegeFudan UniversityShanghai 200025China Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology National Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a life-threatening *** epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources *** calculated basic reproduction number(R0)and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number(Rt)of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method,*** and North American countries possessed higher (R0)and unsteady Rt fluctuations,whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low (R0)and declining Rt *** numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low,but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be *** scenarios were then simulated,generating distinct outcomes by using SEIR(susceptible,exposed,infectious,and removed)***,evidence-based prompt responses yield lower transmission rate followed by decreasing ***,implementation of effective control policies at a relatively late stage,in spite of huge casualties at early phase,can still achieve containment and ***,wisely taking advantage of the time-window for developing countries in Africa and Latin America to adopt adequate measures can save more people’s *** mathematical modeling provides evidence for international communities to develop sound design of containment and mitigation policies for COVID-19.

关键词： reproduction number SEIR model COVID-19 estimate

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Phase-and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

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Frontiers of Medicine 2020年第2期14卷 199-209页

作者： Ruijie Chang Huwen Wang Shuxian Zhang Zezhou Wang Yinqiao Dong Lhakpa Tsamlag Xiaoyue Yu Chen Xu Yuelin Yu rusi long Ning-Ning Liu Qiao Chu Ying Wang Gang Xu Tian Shen Suping Wang Xiaobei Deng Jinyan Huang Xinxin Zhang Hui Wang Yong Cai School of Public Health Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Department of Cancer Prevention Shanghai Cancer CenterFudan UniversityDepartment of OncologyShanghai Medical CollegeFudan UniversityShanghai 200025China Department of Environmental and Occupational Health School of Public HealthChina Medical UniversityShenyang 110122China State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics Shanghai Institute of HematologyNational Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology National Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in *** implementation of prevention and control measures,the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed.A phase-and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan,Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in *** estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province,which is 55303–84520 and 83944–129312,respectively,while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13,2020 with the estimated 13035–19108 *** to the estimation,the outbreak would abate in March and April all over *** estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the ***,there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration,especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei *** prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.

关键词： SEIR model COVID-19 estimate China

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Tumor-derived apoptotic extracellular vesicle-mediated intercellular communication promotes metastasis and stemness of lung adenocarcinoma

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Bioactive Materials 2024年第6期36卷 238-255页

作者： Xiaotian He Yiyang Ma Yingsheng Wen rusi Zhang Dechang Zhao Gongming Wang Weidong Wang Zirui Huang Guangran Guo Xuewen Zhang Huayue Lin Lanjun Zhang State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer MedicineGuangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for CancerSun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterGuangzhouChina Department of Thoracic Surgery Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Department of Breast Surgery Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Department of Anesthesiology Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene Regulation Sun Yat-sen Memorial HospitalSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Breast Tumor Center Sun Yat-sen Memorial HospitalSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina

Apoptosis has long been recognized as a significant mechanism for inhibiting tumor formation,and a plethora of stimuli can induce apoptosis during the progression and treatment of ***,tumor-derived apoptotic extracellular vesicles(apoEVs)are inevitably phagocytosed by live tumor cells,promoting tumor *** the mechanism by which apoEVs regulate tumor cells is imperative for enhancing our knowledge of tumor metastasis and ***,we conducted a series of in vivo and in vitro experiments,and we report that tumor-derived apoEVs promoted lung adenocarcinoma(LUAD)metastasis,self-renewal and ***,we demonstrated that apoEVs facilitated tumor metastasis and stemness by initiating the epithelial-mesenchymal transition program and upregulating the transcription of the stem cell factor *** addition,we found that ALDH1A1,which was transported by apoEVs,activated the NF-κB signaling pathway by increasing aldehyde dehydrogenase enzyme activity in recipient tumor ***,targeting apoEVs-ALDH1A1 significantly abrogated these ***,our findings elucidate a novel mechanism of apoEV-dependent intercellular communication between apoptotic tumor cells and live tumor cells that promotes the formation of cancer stem cell-like populations,and these findings reveal that apoEVs-ALDH1A1 may be a potential therapeutic target and biomarker for LUAD metastasis and recurrence.

关键词： Lung adenocarcinoma Apoptotic extracellular vesicles Stemness Proteomics SOX2

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多层膜结构色滤光片的原理、制备及应用

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人工晶体学报 2021年第7期50卷 1287-1306页

作者：王丹燕李墨馨陆如斯张诚华中科技大学光学与电子信息学院&武汉光电国家研究中心武汉430074

多层膜结构色滤光片不仅结构简单适合大规模生产,而且所呈现的颜色纯度高、亮度大、不易褪色,因此在光学显示、彩色印刷、美学装饰以及新型光伏等领域有着潜在的应用价值。本文将总结基于多层膜结构设计的彩色滤光片在近年来的研究进展... 详细信息

多层膜结构色滤光片不仅结构简单适合大规模生产,而且所呈现的颜色纯度高、亮度大、不易褪色,因此在光学显示、彩色印刷、美学装饰以及新型光伏等领域有着潜在的应用价值。本文将总结基于多层膜结构设计的彩色滤光片在近年来的研究进展,包括产生不同颜色的两种典型结构及背后的物理机制,多层膜结构色滤光片的制备方法(包括磁控溅射、电子束蒸发、电化学沉积等)以及在彩色太阳能电池、彩色印刷以及新型显示等领域的应用现状,并对多层膜结构色滤光片的发展前景进行展望。

关键词：结构色滤光片 Fabry Pérot腔一维光子晶体彩色太阳能电池彩色印刷

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基于云图特征提取的改进混合神经网络超短期光伏功率预测方法

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中国电机工程学报 2021年第20期41卷 6989-7002页

作者：余光正陆柳汤波王思源杨秀陈汝斯上海电力大学电气工程学院上海市杨浦区200090 国网陕西省电力有限公司电力调度控制中心陕西省西安市710048 国网湖北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院湖北省武汉市430077

光伏功率时序受多种特征因素的影响,呈现出高度的随机性和波动性。不同于分布式光伏,集中式光伏具有地理位置与辐照水平的同一性,运动型云层的遮挡往往导致光伏功率的分钟级剧烈波动,对光伏功率预测精度提出了挑战。针对上述问题,该文... 详细信息

光伏功率时序受多种特征因素的影响,呈现出高度的随机性和波动性。不同于分布式光伏,集中式光伏具有地理位置与辐照水平的同一性,运动型云层的遮挡往往导致光伏功率的分钟级剧烈波动,对光伏功率预测精度提出了挑战。针对上述问题,该文提出基于云图特征提取的改进混合神经网络超短期光伏功率预测方法。首先,通过提取并匹配彩色云图局部特征描述子,提出基于地基云图的云轨迹跟踪方法;其次,为评估运动型云团引起的超短期辐照度变化,建立基于云轨迹追踪的辐照系数预测模型;为表征各特征序列的内在相关性,提出一种基于改进注意力机制(improved attentionmechanism,IAM)的卷积–长短时记忆混合神经网络(convolutional neural network-long and short-term memory network,CNN-LSTM)进行超短期光伏功率预测。在此基础上,综合天气类型与波动性聚类识别并提取功率波动过程,建立误差修正模型以进一步提高预测精度。采用西北某集中式光伏电站数据进行算例验证,结果表明,所提方法能有效提高预测精度,具有一定工程实用价值。

关键词：地基云图特征匹配改进混合神经网络波动性聚类超短期光伏功率预测

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