Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios
作者机构：School of Public HealthShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Department of Environmental and Occupational HealthSchool of Public HealthChina Medical UniversityShenyang 110122China Department of Cancer PreventionShanghai Cancer CenterFudan UniversityDepartment of OncologyShanghai Medical CollegeFudan UniversityShanghai 200025China Research Laboratory of Clinical VirologyNational Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China
出 版 物：《Frontiers of Medicine》 (医学前沿（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2020年第14卷第5期
页 面：613-622页
核心收录：
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
基 金：This work is funded by Medicine and Engineering Interdisciplinary Research Fund of Shanghai Jiao Tong University(No.YG2020YQ06) the National Key Research and Development Project(Nos.2018YFC1705100,2018YFC1705103,and 2018YFC2000700) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71673187 and 81630086) the Key Research Program(No.ZDRW-ZS-2017-1)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Innovative research team of high-level local universities in Shanghai
主 题：reproduction number SEIR model COVID-19 estimate
摘 要：The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a life-threatening *** epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources *** calculated basic reproduction number(R0)and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number(Rt)of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method,*** and North American countries possessed higher (R0)and unsteady Rt fluctuations,whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low (R0)and declining Rt *** numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low,but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be *** scenarios were then simulated,generating distinct outcomes by using SEIR(susceptible,exposed,infectious,and removed)***,evidence-based prompt responses yield lower transmission rate followed by decreasing ***,implementation of effective control policies at a relatively late stage,in spite of huge casualties at early phase,can still achieve containment and ***,wisely taking advantage of the time-window for developing countries in Africa and Latin America to adopt adequate measures can save more people’s *** mathematical modeling provides evidence for international communities to develop sound design of containment and mitigation policies for COVID-19.
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