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The Subsurface and Surface Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Association with ENSO in CMIP6 models

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第6期40卷 975-987页

作者： Ge SONG rongcai ren State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This study assesses the reproducibility of 31 historical simulations from 1850 to 2014 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) for the subsurface(Sub-IOD) and surface Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and their association with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the leading east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) but largely overestimate the amplitude and the dominant period of the Sub-IOD. Associated with the much steeper west-to-east thermocline tilt of the TIO, the vertical coupling between the Sub-IOD and IOD is overly strong in most CMIP6 models compared to that in the Ocean Reanalysis System 4(ORAS4). Related to this, most models also show a much tighter association of Sub-IOD and IOD events with the canonical ENSO than observations. This explains the more(less) regular Sub-IOD and IOD events in autumn in those models with stronger(weaker) surface-subsurface coupling in TIO. Though all model simulations feature a consistently low bias regarding the percentage of the winter–spring Sub-IOD events co-occurring with a Central Pacific(CP) ENSO, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSO and the Sub-IOD that occurs in winter–spring, independent of the IOD, is well reproduced.

关键词： CMIP6 subsurface Indian Ocean Dipole surface Indian Ocean Dipole El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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On the Contrasting Decadal Changes of Diurnal Surface Temperature Range between the Tibetan Plateau and Southeastern China during the 1980s–2000s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第2期34卷 181-198页

作者： Yang YANG rongcai ren State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China 1nstitute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters and KLME Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The diurnal surface temperature range （DTR） has become significantly smaller over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） but larger in southeastern China, despite the daily mean surface temperature having increased steadily in both areas during recent decades. Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data covering 1979-2012, this study shows that the weakened DTR over TP is caused by stronger warming of daily minimum surface temperature （Tmin） and a weak cooling of the daily maximum surface temper- ature （Tmax）; meanwhile, the enhanced DTR over southeastern China is mainly associated with a relatively stronger/weaker warming of Tmax/Tmin. A further quantitative analysis of DTR changes through a process-based decomposition method-- the Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method （CFRAM）--indicates that changes in radia- tive processes are mainly responsible for the decreased DTR over the TR In particular, the increased low-level cloud cover tends to induce the radiative cooling/warming during daytime/nighttime, and the increased water vapor helps to decrease the DTR through the stronger radiative wanning during nighttime than daytime. Contributions from the changes in all radiative processes （over -2℃） are compensated for by those from the stronger decreased surface sensible heat flux during daytime than during nighttime （approximately 2.5℃）, but are co-contributed by the changes in atmospheric dynamics （approximately -0.4℃） and the stronger increased latent heat flux during daytime （approximately -0.8℃）. In contrast, the increased DTR over southeastern China is mainly contributed by the changes in cloud, water vapor and atmospheric dynamics. The changes in surface heat fluxes have resulted in a decrease in DTR over southeastern China.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau diurnal surface temperature range decadal change CFRAM

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Parallel Comparison of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 Super El Nios and Their Effects on the Extratropical Stratosphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第9期34卷 1121-1133页

作者： Jian RAO rongcai ren Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

This study uses multiple sea surface temperature （SST） datasets to perform a parallel comparison of three super El Nifios and their effects on the stratosphere. The results show that, different from ordinary El Nifios, warm SST anomalies appear earliest in the western tropical Pacific and precede the super El Nifio peak by more than 18 months. In the previous winter, relative to the mature phase of El Nifio, as a precursor, North Pacific Oscillation-like circulation anomalies are observed. A Pacific-North America （PNA） teleconnection appears in the extratropical troposphere during the mature phase, in spite of the subtle differences between the intensities, as well as the zonal position, of the PNA lobes. Related to the negative rainfall response over the tropical Indian Ocean, the PNA teleconnection in the winter of 1997/98 is the strongest among the three super El Nifios. The northern winter stratosphere shows large anomalies in the polar cap temperature and the circumpolar westerly, if the interferences from other factors are linearly filtered from the circulation data. Associated with the positive PNA response in a super El Nino winter, positive polar cap temperature anomalies and circumpolar easterly anomalies, though different in timing, are also observed in the mature winters of the three super El Nifios. The stratospheric polar vortex in the next winter relative to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events is also anomalously weaker and warmer, and the stratospheric circulation conditions remain to be seen in the coming winter following the mature phase of the 2015/16 event.

关键词： super El Nifio Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection stratosphere proceeding winter

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The Rossby wave train patterns forced by shallower and deeper Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat-source in summer in a linear baroclinic model

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第1期12卷 35-40页

作者： ZHU Chuandong ren rongcai State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters and KLME Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

By using a linear baroclinic model(LBM),this study investigates the different Rossby wave train(RWT)patterns associated with the Tibetan Plateau(TP)upper-atmospheric heat source(TPUHS)that is anomalously shallower and deeper in boreal *** results indicate the different RWT patterns between the developing and decaying periods of synoptic TPUHS events,when the anomalous TPUHS develops from a relatively shallower to a deeper TP heat *** on the different vertical heating profiles between these two periods in observation,this study forces the LBM with prescribed TPUHS profiles to mimic a shallower and deeper summer TP heat *** results show that the atmospheric responses to a shallower and deeper TPUHS do exhibit different RWT patterns that largely resemble those in ***,corresponding RWT pattern to a shallower TPUHS stretches from the TP to the west coast of America,while that to a deeper TPUHS extends from the TP region to Alaska.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau upper atmospheric heat source shallower and deeper heat source Rossby wave train pattern

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Varying Rossby Wave Trains from the Developing to Decaying Period of the Upper Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第9期35卷 1114-1128页

作者： ChuANDong ZHU rongcai ren Guoxiong WU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters and KLME Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This study demonstrates the two different Rossby wave train（RWT） patterns related to the developing/decaying upper atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau（TPUHS） in boreal summer. The results show that the summer TPUHS is dominated by quasi-biweekly variability, particularly from late July to mid-August when the subtropical jet steadily stays to the north of the TP. During the developing period of TPUHS events, the intensifying TPUHS corresponds to an anomalous upper-tropospheric high over the TP, which acts as the main source of a RWT that extends northeastward, via North China, the central Pacific and Alaska, to the northeastern Pacific region. This RWT breaks up while the anomalous high is temporarily replaced by an anomalous low due to the further deepened convective heating around the TPUHS peak. However, this anomalous low, though existing for only three to four days due to the counteracting dynamical effects of the persisting upper/lower divergence/convergence over the TP, acts as a new wave source to connect to an anomalous dynamical high over the Baikal region. Whilst the anomalous low is diminishing rapidly, this Baikal high becomes the main source of a new RWT, which develops eastward over the North Pacific region till around eight days after the TPUHS peak. Nevertheless, the anomaly centers along this decaying-TPUHS-related RWT mostly appear much weaker than those along the previous ***, their impacts on circulation and weather differ considerably from the developing to the decaying period of TPUHS events.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau upper atmospheric heat source Rossby wave train circulation and weather

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Parallel Comparison of the Northern Winter Stratospheric Circulation in Reanalysis and in CMIP5 Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 952-966页

作者： RAO Jian ren rongcai YANG Yang State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

A parallel comparison is made of the circulation climatology and the leading oscillation mode of the northern winter stratosphere among six reanalysis products and 24 CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models. The results reveal that the NCEP/NCAR, NECP/DOE, ERA40, ERA-Interim and JRA25 reanalyses are quite consistent in describ- ing the climatology and annual cycle of the stratospheric circulation. The 20CR reanalysis, however, exhibits a remarkable ＂cold pole＂ bias accompanied by a much stronger stratospheric polar jet, similar as in some CMIP5 models. Compared to the 1-2 month seasonal drift in most coupled general circulation models （GCMs）, the seasonal cycle of the stratospheric zonal wind in most earth system models （ESMs） agrees very well with reanalysis. Similar to the climatology, the amplitude of Polar Vortex Oscillation （PVO） events also varies among CMIP5 models. The P^O amplitude in most GCMs is relatively weaker than in reanalysis, while that in most of the ESMs is more realistic. In relation to the ＂cold pole＂ bias and the weaker oscillation in some CMIP5 GCMs, the frequency of PVO events is significantly underestimated by CMIP5 GCMs; while in most ESMs, it is comparable to that in reanalysis. The PVO events in reanalysis （except in 20CR） mainly occur from mid-winter to early spring （January-March）; but in some of the CMIP5 models, a l-2 month delay exists, especially in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. The long-term trend of the PVO time series does not correspond to long-term changes in the frequency of PVO events in most of the CMIP5 models.

关键词： CMIP5 northern winter stratospheric circulation Polar Vortex Oscillation

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Dynamical role of the Rocky Mountain controlled by East Asian topographies in modulating the tropospheric westerly jet in northern winter

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第1期12卷 66-72页

作者： XIA Xin ren rongcai YU Yueyue State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Large-scale mountains like Asian topographies and the Rocky Mountains have important influences on subtropical jet streams(STJs)over downstream regions in *** dynamical role of the Rocky Mountains in modulating STJs with and without the existence of East Asian(EA)topographies in northern winter is investigated via numerical *** agreement with previous studies,the Rocky Mountains(topographic forcing),with the existence of EA topographies,can only strengthen the STJ from the east coast of North America to the western Atlantic *** independent role of the Rocky Mountains,however,strengthens the STJ over not only the east coast of North America but also over Pacific *** is found that the existence of EA topographies can dramatically strengthen the EA trough,as well as a downstream ridge which,in the upstream of the Rocky Mountains,acts to partly cancel out the strengthening of the anticyclone to the north of the Rocky Mountains and the northward warm air transport in the high latitudes of Pacific regions due to the Rocky Mountains’forcing *** circulation changes effectively weaken the Rocky Mountains–forced strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient in the midlatitude North Pacific,and thus the STJ ***,EA topographies are of great importance in modulating the role of the Rocky Mountains as a dynamical forcing of STJ variability.

关键词： Rocky Mountains East Asian topographies topographic forcing subtropical jet stream

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On the spring stratospheric final warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第1期66卷 129-145页

作者： Jinggao HU Zexuan LIU Haiming XU rongcai ren Dachao JIN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study evaluates the performance in simulating the stratospheric final warming events(SFWs)that lead to the final collapse of the stratospheric polar vortex in spring in both Southern and Northern Hemispheres(SH and NH,respectively)based on the historical simulations provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).Overall,CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can reproduce the main characteristics of the occurrence of ***,the SFW onset date(SFWOD)is 7 and 9 days later than in observations in the SH and NH,***,the intensity of SFWs in models is 50%to 70%of that in *** with CMIP5 models,CMIP6 models have an ameliorated capability to simulate NH ***,this improvement does not manifest as significantly earlier SFW onset,but as more intense stratospheric planetary wave activities before the SFWand as a larger interannual variability of the *** contrast,in the SH,the capability of CMIP6 models is roughly unchanged,even deteriorated in the simulation of SFWOD and stratospheric planetary wave activities before the SFW *** performance of CMIP6 high-top models is better than that of lowtop ***,in the NH,high-top models are considerably improved in terms of intensity of circumpolar zonal wind around the SFWOD and stratospheric planetary wave activities before the SFW *** the SH,high-top models show fairly earlier SFWOD by 11 days,which is closer to observations.

关键词： Stratospheric final warming events CMIP5 and CMIP6 models Historical simulation Southern and Northern Hemispheres

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An Isentropic Mass Circulation View on the Extreme Cold Events in the 2020/21 Winter

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 643-657页

作者： Yueyue YU Yafei LI rongcai ren Ming CAI Zhaoyong GUAN Wei HUANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Tianjin Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Centre Tianjin 300074China Department of Earth Ocean&Atmospheric SciencesFlorida State UniversityTallahasseeFlorida 32304USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210044China

Three extreme cold events successively occurred across East Asia and North America in the 2020/21 *** study investigates the underlying mechanisms of these record-breaking persistent cold events from the isentropic mass circulation(IMC)*** show that the midlatitude cold surface temperature anomalies always co-occurred with the high-latitude warm anomalies,and this was closely related to the strengthening of the low-level equatorward cold air branch of the IMC,particularly along the climatological cold air routes over East Asia and North ***,the two cold surges over East Asia in early winter were results of intensification of cold air transport there,influenced by the Arctic sea ice loss in *** weakened cold air transport over North America associated with warmer northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures(SSTs)explained the concurrent anomalous warmth *** enhanced a wavenumber-1 pattern and upward wave propagation,inducing a simultaneous and long-lasting stronger poleward warm air branch(WB)of the IMC in the stratosphere and hence a displacement-type Stratospheric Sudden Warming(SSW)event on 4 *** WB-induced increase in the air mass transported into the polar stratosphere was followed by intensification of the equatorward cold branch,hence promoting the occurrence of two extreme cold events respectively over East Asia in the beginning of January and over North America in *** do not yield a robust direct linkage from La Niña to the SSW event,IMC changes,and cold events,though the extratropical warm SSTs are found to contribute to the February cold surge in North America.

关键词： isentropic mass circulation extreme cold event Stratospheric Sudden Warming La Niña Arctic sea ice extratropical sea surface temperature

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Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis:The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 894-914页

作者： Zixu WANG Shirui YAN Jinggao HU Jiechun DENG rongcai ren Jian RAO Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and ***-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic ***,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),*** onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight *** contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO *** pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–***,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on *** three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Arctic stratosphere the QBO

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