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Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 1941-1951页

作者： Lixia ZHANG Xiaojing YU Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Shuai HU robin CLARK State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Citie’s Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterEX13PBUK

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world,with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale *** past year,2022,has been no exception,with further records being *** year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent,duration and intensity,with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least *** extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3%of global land areas in 2022,which was the second most widespread year since ***,we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world:China’s Yangtze River region,western Europe,the western U.S.,the Horn of Africa and central South *** each event,we review the potential roles of circulation,oceanic forcing(especially the“triple-dip”La Niña)and anthropogenic climate change,with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global *** will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding,prediction and attribution of extreme events.

关键词： extreme event in 2022 heatwave drought detection and attribution

Assessment of an Evapotranspiration Deficit Drought Index in Relation to Impacts on Ecosystems

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第11期36卷 1273-1287页

作者： Xia ZHANG Mingxing LI Zhuguo MA Qing YANG Meixia LV robin Clark Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 1 3PB UK

Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems.

关键词： evapotranspiration drought index vegetation ecosystem leaf area index climate change

Increasing Flash Floods in a Drying Climate over Southwest China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 198-203页

作者： Chan XIAO Peili WU Lixia ZHANG robin T. CLARK National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.

关键词： regional water cycle flash floods drought Southwest China

Preface to the Special Issue on Summer 2020:Record Rainfall in Asia—Mechanisms,Predictability and Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 1977-1979页

作者： robin TCLARK Xiquan DONG Chang-Hoi HO Jianhua SUN Huiling YUAN Tetsuya TAKEMI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences University of ArizonaTucsonAZ 857210011USA School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National UniversitySeoul 08826Korea Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto UniversityUji 611-0011Japan

Throughout vast areas of Asia,the summer of 2020 was extraordinarily *** an exceptionally wet May in Northeast India and Bangladesh,excessive rainfall hit at least 10 provinces in central and southern China in June and July,causing extensive flooding in many rural and urban *** standing rainfall,lake and river level records were consequently broken in several parts of the region with the Yangtze-Huaihe river valleys,particularly badly impacted,with consequential economic *** and landslides also affected parts of Japan with at least one location in Kumamoto province even experiencing a record-breaking 1000 mm of rainfall in just 3 days in early *** 2020 wet season in South Korea was also exceptionally long,lasting 54 days,compared to their more usual 32.

关键词： exceptional Northeast valley

2021:A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1598-1607页

作者： Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Lixia ZHANG robin CLARK Cheng QIAN Qinghong ZHANG Hui QIU Jie JIANG Xing ZHANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterEX13PBUK Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since *** addition to large-scale warming,2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate ***,a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021,with a focus on China,along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is *** extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted,including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring,consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year,extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer,as well as heatwaves,persistent heavy rainfall,and a cold surge during *** links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here,providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global *** serves as a reference for climate event attribution,process understanding,and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.

关键词： climate extremes detection and attribution climate change natural internal variability

Diagnosing Changes of Winter NAO in Response to Different Climate Forcings in a set of Atmosphere-only Timeslice Experiments

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Diagnosing Changes of Winter NAO in Response to Different Cl...