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Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 46-55页

作者： Marcos Amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho raymundo soares azevedo Neto Claudio Struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary Medicine University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and Clinical Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease Control London School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of *** this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,*** State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 ***,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the *** alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were *** strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling

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Dengue Epidemiology in a Brazilian Community

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Open Journal of Epidemiology 2020年第1期10卷 43-54页

作者： Wilson Mansho Fernando Ferreira Iná Kakitani raymundo soares azevedo Marcos Amaku Zoonosis Control Center Municipal Health Secretariat Guarulhos City Hall Guarulhos Brazil Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil Department of Pathology School of Medicine University of São Paulo and LIM01/HCFMUSP São Paulo Brazil

Dengue is a major vector-borne disease and has motivated health surveillance systems to implement various measures to control it. The epidemiological characterization of dengue occurrence in a community is an important step to foster control activities. We carried out an epidemiological study of the notified and confirmed cases of dengue, from 2000 to 2005, in Guarulhos, State of São Paulo, Brazil. A statistical analysis was performed to test the differences, by sex and age, between the database and the individuals of the population. We also performed a time series analysis of the cases from 2000 to 2007. No statistically significant differences (P > 0.05) were observed between the proportions for each sex in the data base and in the city population, and in the categories of 15 - 19 years, 20 - 24 years, 25 - 29 years, 55 - 59 years, 60 - 64 years and 70 - 74 years when compared with the corresponding age intervals in the population. In the other age intervals, statistically significant differences were observed (P < 0.05). We observed a cyclic variation in the dengue incidence, between 2000 and 2007, with an alternation of two years with a smaller number of cases (2000-2001 and 2004-2005) and two years with a larger number of cases (2002-2003 and 2006-2007). In the seasonality analysis, the number of cases between February and May was higher than the monthly average. Analyzing the spatial distribution of the cases, we observed the process of increasing endemicity of dengue.

关键词： Dengue Seasonality Cyclic Variation Endemicity Guarulhos

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