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SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 370-380页

作者： rachel waema mbogo Titus Okello Orwa Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore UniversityBox ***NairobiKenya

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area *** reported by the World Health Organization,the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world,killed many,collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported inWuhan,China,in the end of *** at the end of December 2020,it had led to over 2.8 million confirmed cases in Africa with over 67 thousand *** trend poses a huge threat to global public *** the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new *** employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over *** model is concise in structure,and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak,and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the *** next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R_(0))from the model to assess the factors driving the *** model illustrates the effect of mass testing on COVID-19 as well as individual self initiated behavioral *** results have significant impact on the management of COVID-19 and implementation of prevention *** results from the model analysis shows that aggressive and effective mass testing as well as individual self initiated behaviour change play a big role in getting rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

关键词： COVID-19 SEIHCRD-Model Social distancing Mass testing Compartmental model Basic reproduction number Simulations

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Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第1期7卷 82-108页

作者： Titus Okello Orwa rachel waema mbogo Livingstone Serwadda Luboobi Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore UniversityP.O Box 59857-00200NairobiKenya

This paper presents an in-host malaria model subject to anti-malarial drug treatment and malaria vaccine antigens ***'s Maximum Principle is applied to establish optimal control strategies against infected erythrocytes,infected hepatocytes and malaria *** from numerical simulation reveal that a combination of preerythrocytic vaccine antigen,blood schizontocide and gametocytocide drugs would offer the best strategy to eradicate clinical *** *** analysis,further reveal that the efficacy of blood schizontocides and blood stage vaccines are crucial in the control of clinical malaria ***,we found that an effective blood schizontocide should be used alongside efficacious blood stage vaccine for rapid eradication of infective malaria *** authors hope that the results of this study will help accelerate malaria elimination efforts by combining malaria vaccines and anti-malarial drugs against the deadly *** malaria.

关键词： Optimal control Blood schizontocide Gametocytocide P.falciparum malaria Malaria vaccines Pontryagin's Maximum Principle

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Mathematical Modelling of In-Vivo Dynamics of HIV Subject to the Influence of the CD8+ T-Cells

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Applied Mathematics 2017年第8期8卷 1153-1179页

作者： Purity M. Ngina rachel waema mbogo Livingstone S. Luboobi Strathmore Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore University Nairobi Kenya

There have been many mathematical models aimed at analysing the in-vivo dynamics of HIV. However, in most cases the attention has been on the interaction between the HIV virions and the CD4+ T-cells. This paper brings in the intervention of the CD8+ T-cells in seeking, destroying, and killing the infected CD4+ T-cells during early stages of infection. The paper presents and analyses a five-component in-vivo model and applies the results in investigating the in-vivo dynamics of HIV in presence of the CD8+ T-cells. We prove the positivity and the boundedness of the model solutions. In addition, we show that the solutions are biologically meaningful. Both the endemic and virions- free equilibria are determined and their stability investigated. In addition, the basic reproductive number is derived by the next generation matrix method. We prove that the virions-free equilibrium state is locally asymptotically stable if and only if R0 < 1 and unstable otherwise. The results show that at acute infection the CD8+ T-cells play a paramount role in reducing HIV viral replication. We also observe that the model exhibits backward and trans-critical bifurcation for some set of parameters for R0 . This is a clear indication that having R0 is not sufficient condition for virions depletion.

关键词： HIV Endemic Equilibrium Global Stability In-Vivo Disease-Free Equilibrium Basic Reproductive Number Backward Bifurcation

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Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 179-188页

作者： Joyce Kiarie Samuel Mwalili rachel mbogo Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore UniversityNairobiKenya School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobiKenya

COVID-19,a coronavirus disease 2019,is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).The first case in Kenya was identified on March 13,2020,with the pandemic increasing to about 237,000 confirmed cases and 4,746 deaths by August *** developed an SEIR model forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using an Autoregressive Integrated moving averages(ARIMA)*** average time difference between the peaks of wave 1 to wave 4 was observed to be about 130 *** 4th wave was observed to have had the least number of daily cases at the *** to the forecasts made for the next 60 days,the pandemic is expected to continue for a *** 4th wave peaked on August 26,2021(498th day).By October 26,2021(60th day),the average number of daily infections will be 454 new cases and 40 severe cases,which would require hospitalization,and 16 critically ill cases requiring intensive care unit *** findings of this study are key in developing informed mitigation strategies to ensure that the pandemic is contained and inform the preparedness of policymakers and health care workers.

关键词： ARIMA COVID-19 Infectious disease model Forecasting SEIR Kenya pandemic

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THE GREENING OF THE PARKING INDUSTRY–BEST PRACTICES,AND A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR PARKING STRUCTURES

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Journal of Green Building 2014年第4期9卷 61-77页

作者： rachel Yoka Program Development International Parking Institute

Sustainable building design is now *** United States Green Building Council(USGBC)and the LEED Ratings Systems have moved the market,proving that“a rising tide lifts all boats.”Consumers now factor environmental effect into their buying decisions,a trend that looks to continue and intensify with the millennial *** and homeowners are willing to pay more for high-performing and better quality housing based on environmental *** recognize that indoor air quality and daylighting improve employee performance and boost retention *** even bottom-line businesses are investing in benchmarking and efficiency projects that have the right return on investment *** Urban Land Institute’s Greenprint Center for Building Performance serves as a prime example of the ways developers implement benchmarking,energy efficiency,and high-performance standards in the major real estate sectors:office,retail,industrial,multifamily,and *** efficiency gains and higher-quality buildings in each of these sectors will be essential to reducing emissions and energy *** the transportation sector implements its own standards and benchmarking tools to achieve greater levels of sustainability across all modes of transportation,one industry that stands at the nexus of every building type and the transportation modes used to access them is *** is a key consideration that links land use and transportation:Parking is often the connection between where we are and where we want to *** may not have been at the forefront of the sustainability discussion or the media surrounding it in previous years,but the professionals who work in the world of parking know exactly how important the role of their industry is to the success of our cities,towns,institutions,and *** is big business;it is conservatively estimated to be a$30 billion *** directly contributes to the economic vitality and accessibility of where we

关键词： Sustainability triple bottom line rating system parking garages transportation TDM

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On the effects of spatial resolution on effective distance measurement in digital landscapes

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Ecological Processes 2021年第1期10卷 659-677页

作者： rachel Mundeli Murekatete Takeshi Shirabe KTH Royal Institute of Technology School of Architecture and the Built EnvironmentTeknikringen 10A11428 StockholmSweden University of Rwanda College of Science and TechnologyCentre for Geographic Information Systems and Remote SensingKN 67 Street NyarugengeKigaliRwanda

Background:Connectivity is an important landscape attribute in ecological studies and conservation practices and is often expressed in terms of effective *** the cost of movement of an organism over a landscape is effectively represented by a raster surface,effective distances can be equated with the cost-weighted distance of least-cost *** is generally recognized that this measure is sensitive to the grid’s cell size,but little is known if it is always sensitive in the same way and to the same degree and if not,what makes it more(or less)*** conducted computational experiments with both synthetic and real landscape data,in which we generated and analyzed large samples of effective distances measured on cost surfaces of varying cell sizes derived from those *** particular focus was on the statistical behavior of the ratio—referred to as‘accuracy indicator’—of the effective distance measured on a lower-resolution cost surface to that measured on a higher-resolution cost ***:In the experiment with synthetic cost surfaces,the sample values of the accuracy indicator were generally clustered around 1,but slightly greater with the absence of linear sequences(or barriers)of high-cost or inadmissible cells and smaller with the presence of such *** latter tendency was more dominant,and both tendencies became more pronounced as the difference between the spatial resolutions of the associated cost surfaces *** two real satellite images(of different resolutions with fairly large discrepancies)were used as the basis of cost estimation,the variation of the accuracy indicator was found to be substantially large in the vicinity(1500 m)of the source but decreases quickly with an increase in distance from ***:Effective distances measured on lower-resolution cost surfaces are generally highly correlated with—and useful predictors of—effective distances measured on higher-resolution cost *** relationship t

关键词： Landscape connectivity Effective distance Raster-based least-cost path model Accuracy Spatial resolution

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A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2019年第1期4卷 83-98页

作者： E.O.Omondi R.W.mbogo L.S.Luboobi Institute of Mathematical Sciences Strathmore UniversityP.O Box 59857-00200NairobiKenya

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age *** the present manuscript,we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between two age groups in *** fitted the model to data using MCMC technique and inferred the *** also estimate the reproduction numbers,namely within age group transmission and between age groups transmission basic reproduction *** analysis of the data revealed that there is significant difference in mean number of new HIV infections between males and females within the two age ***,particularly,females are highly infected with HIV as compared to their male *** of the reproduction numbers within and between age groups provides insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of *** specifically,the analysis showed that the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest when there is interaction between young adults to adults and most HIV infections occurred in adult ***,the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the reproduction numbers depend mainly on the probabilities of *** results can be used to guide HIV interventions,condom distribution and antiretroviral ***,the results can be used to educate the young adults on practicing safe sex with their partners in order to contain the occurrence of new infections.

关键词： Heterosexual transmission(HIV) Basic reproduction number MCMC Probability distribution KruskaleWallis test Correlation

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Pharmacological inhibition of cation-chloride cotransporters for neurological diseases

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Neural Regeneration Research 2015年第12期10卷 1924-1925页

作者： rachel Nepomuceno Dandan Sun Department of Neurology University of Pittsburgh Veterans Affairs Pittsburgh Health Care System Geriatric ResearchEducational and Clinical Center

γ-Aminobutyric acid（GABA）is a major neurotransmitter and plays important roles in both the developing and mature central nervous system（CNS）.One way that GABA can act is by binding to fast,ionotropic GABAA recept... 详细信息

关键词： Cl Pharmacological inhibition of cation-chloride cotransporters for neurological diseases GABAA

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The key piece of the airway remodeling puzzle revealed-LIGHT signaling in the lung

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Genes & Diseases 2023年第4期10卷 1131-1132页

作者： Ziyan rachel Chen Jim Hu Programmes in Translational Medicine Research InstituteHospital for Sick ChildrenTorontoOntario M5G 0A4Canada Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology University of TorontoTorontoOntario M5S 1A8Canada Department of Paediatrics University of TorontoTorontoOntario M5S 1A8Canada

Asthma is a chronic lung disease that primarily affects the lower respiratory tract in more than 300 million people *** is often triggered by exposure to certain substances or conditions,such as allergens or cold *** overreaction to the allergens causes inflammation and narrowing of the airway,which leads to episodic or persistent symptoms including shortness of breath,nocturnal cough,chest tightness,and wheezing.

关键词： airway lung inflammation

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Linear Accelerator Based External Beam Radiotherapy in Glomus Jugulare Tumour: A Retrospective Review from a Tertiary Cancer Hospital in Kenya

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Case Reports in Clinical Medicine 2022年第4期11卷 122-132页

作者： Vijayakumar Narayanan Asmeeta Patel James mbogo HCG-CCK Nairobi Kenya Aga khan University Hospital Nairobi Kenya Department of Clinical Oncology HCG-CCK Nairobi Kenya

Objective: Tumours originating from jugular bulb, carotid bifurcation, Vagus nerve are collectively called Paragangliomas. They are slow growing, essentially benign tumours, but can be detrimental if untreated. There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of fractionated radiotherapy in the management ofs Glomus jugulare tumours. The aim of this study is to determine the efficacy of Linear accelerator based fractionated external beam radiotherapy on unilateral inoperable Glomus jugulare paragangliomas. Method: This is a retrospective analysis of all the 12 cases of inoperable, unilateral Glomus jugulare tumours treated during the period 2011-2016 at a tertiary cancer centre in Kenya. Minimum follow up duration was 3 years. Patient characteristics, disease staging, immediate complications and therapeutic efficacy were analysed from the case files. Results: The 12 patients diagnosed with inoperable Glomus jugulare tumours reported in this period were treated with external beam radiotherapy to a tumour dose of 54 Gy in 30 fractions over a period of 6 weeks using IMRT technique in 6 MV Linear accelerator. 2/3rd of the patients were females in 5th and 6th decade of life. Onset of first symptom to initiation of treatment was found to be 1.7 years. Headache, earache, and tinnitus were the main complaints. No major side effects were recorded during therapy. Mean length of the tumour in its maximum dimension at the time of diagnosis was 4.5 cm. At the end of one-year post therapy, a mean reduction of 6.5 mm in the tumour length was observed, (Range: 0 - 15 mm). Tumour size remained static for a year and thereafter a slow growth pattern of 1mm per year was observed. Conclusion: Fractionated external beam radiotherapy is an effective and non-invasive treatment for advanced, inoperable Glomus jugulare paragangliomas. Clinical stability through tumour control was observed. Though newer radiation techniques like Cyberknife, Proton therapy offer

关键词： Glomus Jugulare Paragangliomas External Beam Radiotherapy

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