SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis
作者机构：Institute of Mathematical SciencesStrathmore UniversityBox ***NairobiKenya
出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)
年 卷 期：2021年第6卷第1期
页 面：370-380页
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
主 题：COVID-19 SEIHCRD-Model Social distancing Mass testing Compartmental model Basic reproduction number Simulations
摘 要：The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area *** reported by the World Health Organization,the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world,killed many,collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported inWuhan,China,in the end of *** at the end of December 2020,it had led to over 2.8 million confirmed cases in Africa with over 67 thousand *** trend poses a huge threat to global public *** the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new *** employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over *** model is concise in structure,and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak,and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the *** next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R_(0))from the model to assess the factors driving the *** model illustrates the effect of mass testing on COVID-19 as well as individual self initiated behavioral *** results have significant impact on the management of COVID-19 and implementation of prevention *** results from the model analysis shows that aggressive and effective mass testing as well as individual self initiated behaviour change play a big role in getting rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.
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