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BUASCSDSEC——Uncertainty Assessment of Coupled Classification and Statistical Downscaling Using Gaussian Process Error Coupling

BUASCSDSEC——Uncertainty Assessment of Coupled Classificati...

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作者： queen suraajini rajendran Sai Hung Cheung the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Nanyang Technological University

The statistical downscaling models which are used as a bridging model to connect the global climate model output and the local weather variables have uncertainty associated with *** uncertainty present in the model as well as in the results should be quantified for reliable climate change impact *** sources of uncertainty include natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), downscaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted *** analysis and quantification in the models is a promising approach for climate change impact *** this paper, a new approach called BUASCSDSEC(Bayesian uncertainty analysis for stochastic classification and statistical downscaling with stochastic dependent error coupling) is *** is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools for combined classification(to predict the occurrence of rainfall) and statistical *** is based on coupling dependent modelling error which is viewed as a function modelled as a stochastic process with classification and statistical downscaling models in a way that the dependency among modelling errors will impact the result of the classification and statistical downscaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future *** Process is considered in the error *** data are used and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained for the validation period(1995-2000).It is observed that the CDFs of the daily predicted samples are consistent with the observed CDF of *** uncertainty is smaller for the extreme rainfall and the uncertainty for smaller amount of rainfall is more compared to that for the extreme *** the results obtained, ongoing research for improvement is briefly presented.

关键词： Stochastic process gaussian process stochastic classification statistical downscaling uncertainty quantification model inadequacy

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