BUASCSDSEC——Uncertainty Assessment of Coupled Classification and Statistical Downscaling Using Gaussian Process Error Coupling
作者单位：the School of Civil and Environmental EngineeringNanyang Technological University
会议日期：2015年
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) Project (M4080707.B50 M4080891.B50 and M4430053.B50)
关 键 词：Stochastic process gaussian process stochastic classification statistical downscaling uncertainty quantification model inadequacy
摘 要：The statistical downscaling models which are used as a bridging model to connect the global climate model output and the local weather variables have uncertainty associated with *** uncertainty present in the model as well as in the results should be quantified for reliable climate change impact *** sources of uncertainty include natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), downscaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted *** analysis and quantification in the models is a promising approach for climate change impact *** this paper, a new approach called BUASCSDSEC(Bayesian uncertainty analysis for stochastic classification and statistical downscaling with stochastic dependent error coupling) is *** is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools for combined classification(to predict the occurrence of rainfall) and statistical *** is based on coupling dependent modelling error which is viewed as a function modelled as a stochastic process with classification and statistical downscaling models in a way that the dependency among modelling errors will impact the result of the classification and statistical downscaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future *** Process is considered in the error *** data are used and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained for the validation period(1995-2000).It is observed that the CDFs of the daily predicted samples are consistent with the observed CDF of *** uncertainty is smaller for the extreme rainfall and the uncertainty for smaller amount of rainfall is more compared to that for the extreme *** the results obtained, ongoing research for improvement is briefly presented.