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Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of the December 2011 Flood Event in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第3期9卷 421-437页

作者： Doreen M. Anande philbert M. luhunga Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Section Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS) Seoul South Korea Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Floods are the most devastating hazards that have significant adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Their impacts can be reduced by investing on: 1) improving the forecasting skills of extreme and heavy rainfall events, 2) development of Impacts Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS) and 3) effective communication of impacts from anticipated extreme or heavy rainfall event. The development of IBFEWS however, requires a complete understanding of factors that relates to the formation of extreme or heavy rainfall events and their associated socio-economic impacts. This information is crucial in the development of Impacts Based Flood Forecasting Models (IBFFMs). In this study, we assess the socio-economic impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam as the preliminary stage in the development of IBFFMs for the City of Dar es Salaam. Data from household survey collected using systematic random sampling techniques and structured questionnaires are used. The survey was conducted to acquire respondent’s views on the causes of floods impacts, adaptive capacity to extreme or heavy rainfall events and adaptation options to minimize flood impact. It is found that the main causes of floods were river overflow due to heavy rainfall and blocked drainage system. Poor infrastructure such as drainage and sewage systems, and ocean surge were identified to be the causes of observed impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam. Death cases analysis showed that 43 people were reported dead. The flood event damaged properties worth of 7.5 million Tanzania shillings. Furthermore, the Tanzania Government spent a total amount of 1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable communities that lived-in low-lying areas of Jagwani to high ground areas of Mabwepande in Kinondoni district.

关键词： Extreme Rainfall Impacts Based Flood Forecasting Models (IBFFMs) Socio Economic Impacts Impact Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS)

Homogeneity of Monthly Mean Air Temperature of the United Republic of Tanzania with HOMER

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第1期4卷 70-77页

作者： philbert M. luhunga Edmund Mutayoba Hashim K. Ng’ongolo Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The long-term climate datasets are widely used in a variety of climate analyses. These datasets, however, have been adversely impacted by inhomogeneities caused by, for example relocations of meteorological station, change of land use cover surrounding the weather stations, substitution of meteorological station, changes of shelters, changes of instrumentation due to its failure or damage, and change of observation hours. If these inhomogeneities are not detected and adjusted properly, the results of climate analyses using these data can be erroneous. In this paper for the first time, monthly mean air temperatures of the United Republic of Tanzania are homogenized by using HOMER software package. This software is one of the most recent homogenization software and exhibited the best results in the comparative analysis performed within the COST Action ES0601 (HOME). Monthly mean minimum (TN) and maximum (TX) air temperatures from 1974 to 2012 were used in the analysis. These datasets were obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA). The analysis reveals a larger number of artificial break points in TX (12 breaks) than TN (5 breaks) time series. The homogenization process was assessed by comparing results obtained with Correlation analysis and Principal Component analysis (PCA) of homogenized and non-homogenized datasets. Mann-Kendal non-parametric test was used to estimate the existence, magnitude and statistical significance of potential trends in the homogenized and non-homogenized time series. Correlation analysis reveals stronger correlation in homogenized TX than TN in relation to non-homogenized time series. Results from PCA suggest that the explained variances of the principal components are higher in homogenized TX than TN in relation to non-homogenized time series. Mann-Kendal non-parametric test reveals that the number of statistical significant trend increases higher with homogenized TX (96%) than TN (67%) in relation to non-homogenized datasets.

关键词： Homogenization HOMER Software Package ANOVA Air Temperature

The Contribution of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS APA) in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process for Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第4期9卷 650-661页

作者： Agnes Kijazi Ladislaus Chang’a philbert luhunga Hashim Ng’ongolo Mecklina Merchades Pamela Levira Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and Climate Change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrometeorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania.

This article assesses the contribution of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS APA) in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process for Tanzania. Different research project outputs (field survey and workshop reports) produced during the implementation of GFCS APA are reviewed to assess the contribution of GFCS APA programme in the establishment and implementation of NAP process in Tanzania. It is found that the implementation of GFCS-APA programme in Tanzania has improved the availability, accessibility, and applicability of climate information to different stakeholders. This has in turn attributed to significant use of climate information in planning and decision making in target sectors: agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy, health and water resource management. This has increased the adaptation capacity of vulnerable communities from the impacts of climate variability and change. Furthermore, it is evident that the aims and objectives of establishments of NAP process in Tanzania have been addressed through implementation of GFCS APA Programme. Moreover, since the GFCS APA in Tanzania is implemented within its five pillars namely: observation and monitoring, research, modeling and prediction, climate information systems, user interface platform and capacity development. The achievement made in each pillar contributed in enhancement of resilience of vulnerable communities to climate variability and change hence addressing the aims and objectives of NAP process in Tanzania. Therefore, it is recommended that achievements of GFCS APA Programme in Tanzania to be used as a guide to the development and implementations of the NAP process in Tanzania.

关键词： Global Framework for Climate Services World Meteorological Organization National Adaptation Plan

Evaluation of the Performance of ENACTS MAP-ROOM Products over Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第2期9卷 202-212页

作者： philbert M. luhunga Agnes L. Kijazi Ladislaus Chang’a Hashim Ng’ongolo Alfred Kondowe Tanzania Meteorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Climatology and Climate Change Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Agency Numerical Weather Prediction Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Tanzania has inadequate weather stations (28-synoptic weather stations), which are sparsely distributed over complex topographic terrain. Many places, especially rural areas, have no stations to monitor weather and climate. In this study, we evaluate the performance of ENACT-MAPROOM products over Tanzania with the aim of assessing their potential to supplement observed weather and climate data, especially over areas where there is limited number of weather stations. Monthly rainfall total and monthly averaged minimum and maximum temperatures from ENACT-MAPROOM are evaluated against observed data from 23 weather stations. The evaluation is limited to analyze how well the ENACT-MAPROOM products reproduce climatological trends, annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures. Statistical analysis recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that includes that correlation and trend analysis are used. It is found that ENACT-MAPROOM products reproduce the climatological trends, annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures over most stations. The statistical relationship between ENACT-MAPROOM products against observed data from 23 weather stations using Pearson correlation coefficient indicates that ENACT-MAPROOM products bear strong and statistically significant correlation coefficient to observed data. The overall evaluation here finds high skills of ENACT-MAPROOM products in representing rainfall and temperature over Tanzania, suggesting their potential use in planning and decision making especially over areas with limited number of weather stations.

关键词： Climate Change Rainfall Temperature ENACT-MAPROOM Products

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extreme Indices in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2017年第4期7卷 525-539页

作者： Ladislaus B. Chang’a Agnes L. Kijazi philbert M. luhunga Hashim K. Ng’ongolo Habiba I. Mtongor Tanzania Meteorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Climate extreme indices in Tanzania for the period 1961-2015 are analyzed us-ing quality controlled daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures data. RClimdex and National Climate Monitoring Products (NCMP) software developed by the commission for climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were used for the computation of the indices at the respective stations at monthly and annual time scales. The trends of the extreme indices averaged over the country were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed a widespread statistical significant increase in temperature extremes consistent with global warming patterns. On average, the annual timescale indicate that mean temperature anomaly has increased by 0.69°C, mean percentage of warm days has increased by 9.37%, and mean percentage of warm nights has increased by 12.05%. Mean percentage of cold days and nights have decreased by 7.64% and 10.00% respectively. A non-statistical significance decreasing trends in rainfall is depicted in large parts of the country. Increasing trend in percentage of warm days and warm nights is mostly depicted over the eastern parts of the country including areas around Kilimanjaro, Dar-es-Salaam, Zanzibar, Mtwara, and Mbeya regions. Some parts of the Lake Victoria Basin are also characterized by increasing trend of warm days and warm nights. However, non-statistical significant decreasing trends in the percentage of warm days and warm nights are depicted in the western parts of the country including Tabora and Kigoma regions and western side of the lake Victoria. These results indicate a clear dipole pattern in temperature dynamics between the eastern side of the country mainly influenced by the Indian Ocean and the western side of the country largely influenced by the moist Congo air mass associated with westerly winds. The results also indicate that days and nights are both getting warmer, though, the warming trend is much faster in the minimum temp

关键词： Tanzania Climate Extreme Indices Temperature trends Rainfall trends NCMP