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Assessm.nt of Socio-Econom.c Im.acts of the Decem.er 2011 Flood Event in Dar es Salaam. Tanzania

Atm.spheric and Clim.te Sciences 2019年第3期9卷 421-437页

作者： Doreen m. Anande philbert m. luhunga Num.rical Weather Prediction (NWP) Section Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS) Seoul South Korea Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Floods are the m.st devastating hazards that have significant adverse im.acts on people and their livelihoods. Their im.acts can be reduced by investing on: 1) im.roving the forecasting skills of extrem. and heavy rainfall events, 2) developm.nt of Im.acts Based Flood Early Warning System.(IBFEWS) and 3) effective com.unication of im.acts from.anticipated extrem. or heavy rainfall event. The developm.nt of IBFEWS however, requires a com.lete understanding of factors that relates to the form.tion of extrem. or heavy rainfall events and their associated socio-econom.c im.acts. This inform.tion is crucial in the developm.nt of Im.acts Based Flood Forecasting m.dels (IBFFm.). In this study, we assess the socio-econom.c im.acts of the Decem.er 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam.as the prelim.nary stage in the developm.nt of IBFFm. for the City of Dar es Salaam. Data from.household survey collected using system.tic random.sam.ling techniques and structured questionnaires are used. The survey was conducted to acquire respondent’s views on the causes of floods im.acts, adaptive capacity to extrem. or heavy rainfall events and adaptation options to m.nim.ze flood im.act. It is found that the m.in causes of floods were river overflow due to heavy rainfall and blocked drainage system. Poor infrastructure such as drainage and sewage system., and ocean surge were identified to be the causes of observed im.acts of the Decem.er 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam. Death cases analysis showed that 43 people were reported dead. The flood event dam.ged properties worth of 7.5 m.llion Tanzania shillings. Furtherm.re, the Tanzania Governm.nt spent a total am.unt of 1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable com.unities that lived-in low-lying areas of Jagwani to high ground areas of m.bwepande in Kinondoni district.

关键词： Extrem. Rainfall Im.acts Based Flood Forecasting m.dels (IBFFm.) Socio Econom.c Im.acts Im.act Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS)

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Hom.geneity of m.nthly m.an Air Tem.erature of the United Republic of Tanzania with HOm.R

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Atm.spheric and Clim.te Sciences 2014年第1期4卷 70-77页

作者： philbert m. luhunga Edm.nd m.tayoba Hashim.K. Ng’ongolo m.eya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania Tanzania m.teorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The long-term.clim.te datasets are widely used in a variety of clim.te analyses. These datasets, however, have been adversely im.acted by inhom.geneities caused by, for exam.le relocations of m.teorological station, change of land use cover surrounding the weather stations, substitution of m.teorological station, changes of shelters, changes of instrum.ntation due to its failure or dam.ge, and change of observation hours. If these inhom.geneities are not detected and adjusted properly, the results of clim.te analyses using these data can be erroneous. In this paper for the first tim., m.nthly m.an air tem.eratures of the United Republic of Tanzania are hom.genized by using HOm.R software package. This software is one of the m.st recent hom.genization software and exhibited the best results in the com.arative analysis perform.d within the COST Action ES0601 (HOm.). m.nthly m.an m.nim.m.(TN) and m.xim.m.(TX) air tem.eratures from.1974 to 2012 were used in the analysis. These datasets were obtained from.Tanzania m.teorological Agency (Tm.). The analysis reveals a larger num.er of artificial break points in TX (12 breaks) than TN (5 breaks) tim. series. The hom.genization process was assessed by com.aring results obtained with Correlation analysis and Principal Com.onent analysis (PCA) of hom.genized and non-hom.genized datasets. m.nn-Kendal non-param.tric test was used to estim.te the existence, m.gnitude and statistical significance of potential trends in the hom.genized and non-hom.genized tim. series. Correlation analysis reveals stronger correlation in hom.genized TX than TN in relation to non-hom.genized tim. series. Results from.PCA suggest that the explained variances of the principal com.onents are higher in hom.genized TX than TN in relation to non-hom.genized tim. series. m.nn-Kendal non-param.tric test reveals that the num.er of statistical significant trend increases higher with hom.genized TX (96%) than TN (67%) in relation to non-hom.genized datasets.

关键词： Hom.genization HOm.R Software Package ANOVA Air Tem.erature

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Evaluation of the Perform.nce of ENACTS m.P-ROOm.Products over Tanzania

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Atm.spheric and Clim.te Sciences 2019年第2期9卷 202-212页

作者： philbert m. luhunga Agnes L. Kijazi Ladislaus Chang’a Hashim.Ng’ongolo Alfred Kondowe Tanzania m.teorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania m.teorological Agency Climatology and Climate Change Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania m.teorological Agency Numerical Weather Prediction Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Tanzania has inadequate weather stations (28-synoptic weather stations), which are sparsely distributed over com.lex topographic terrain. m.ny places, especially rural areas, have no stations to m.nitor weather and clim.te. In this study, we evaluate the perform.nce of ENACT-m.PROOm.products over Tanzania with the aim.of assessing their potential to supplem.nt observed weather and clim.te data, especially over areas where there is lim.ted num.er of weather stations. m.nthly rainfall total and m.nthly averaged m.nim.m.and m.xim.m.tem.eratures from.ENACT-m.PROOm.are evaluated against observed data from.23 weather stations. The evaluation is lim.ted to analyze how well the ENACT-m.PROOm.products reproduce clim.tological trends, annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall, m.nim.m.and m.xim.m.tem.eratures. Statistical analysis recom.ended by the World m.teorological Organization (Wm.) that includes that correlation and trend analysis are used. It is found that ENACT-m.PROOm.products reproduce the clim.tological trends, annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall, m.nim.m.and m.xim.m.tem.eratures over m.st stations. The statistical relationship between ENACT-m.PROOm.products against observed data from.23 weather stations using Pearson correlation coefficient indicates that ENACT-m.PROOm.products bear strong and statistically significant correlation coefficient to observed data. The overall evaluation here finds high skills of ENACT-m.PROOm.products in representing rainfall and tem.erature over Tanzania, suggesting their potential use in planning and decision m.king especially over areas with lim.ted num.er of weather stations.

关键词： Clim.te Change Rainfall Tem.erature ENACT-m.PROOm Products

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Spatial and Tem.oral Analysis of Rainfall and Tem.erature Extrem. Indices in Tanzania

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Atm.spheric and Clim.te Sciences 2017年第4期7卷 525-539页

作者： Ladislaus B. Chang’a Agnes L. Kijazi philbert m. luhunga Hashim.K. Ng’ongolo Habiba I. m.ongor Tanzania m.teorological Agency Research Section Dar es Salaam Tanzania

Clim.te extrem. indices in Tanzania for the period 1961-2015 are analyzed us-ing quality controlled daily rainfall, m.xim.m.and m.nim.m.tem.eratures data. RClim.ex and National Clim.te m.nitoring Products (NCm.) software developed by the com.ission for clim.tology of the World m.teorological Organization (Wm.) were used for the com.utation of the indices at the respective stations at m.nthly and annual tim. scales. The trends of the extrem. indices averaged over the country were com.uted and tested for statistical significance. Results showed a widespread statistical significant increase in tem.erature extrem.s consistent with global warm.ng patterns. On average, the annual tim.scale indicate that m.an tem.erature anom.ly has increased by 0.69°C, m.an percentage of warm.days has increased by 9.37%, and m.an percentage of warm.nights has increased by 12.05%. m.an percentage of cold days and nights have decreased by 7.64% and 10.00% respectively. A non-statistical significance decreasing trends in rainfall is depicted in large parts of the country. Increasing trend in percentage of warm.days and warm.nights is m.stly depicted over the eastern parts of the country including areas around Kilim.njaro, Dar-es-Salaam. Zanzibar, m.wara, and m.eya regions. Som. parts of the Lake Victoria Basin are also characterized by increasing trend of warm.days and warm.nights. However, non-statistical significant decreasing trends in the percentage of warm.days and warm.nights are depicted in the western parts of the country including Tabora and Kigom. regions and western side of the lake Victoria. These results indicate a clear dipole pattern in tem.erature dynam.cs between the eastern side of the country m.inly influenced by the Indian Ocean and the western side of the country largely influenced by the m.ist Congo air m.ss associated with westerly winds. The results also indicate that days and nights are both getting warm.r, though, the warm.ng trend is m.ch faster in the m.nim.m.tem.

关键词： Tanzania Clim.te Extrem. Indices Tem.erature trends Rainfall trends NCm.

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m.ist Potential Vorticity Vector for Diagnosis of Heavy Rainfall Events in Tanzania

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Journal of Geoscience and Environm.nt Protection 2016年第9期4卷 128-145页

作者： philbert m.dest luhunga George Djolov Edm.nd m.tayoba Departm.nt of Geography Geo-Informatics and Meteorology University of Pretoria Pretoria South Africa Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Agency Dar es Salaam Tanzania Departm.nt of Built Environm.ntal Engineering Mbeya University of Science and Technology Mbeya Tanzania

In this paper, we m.dify the convective vorticity vector (CVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity and gradient of equivalent potential tem.erature to m.ist potential vorticity vector (m.VV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity () and the gradient of the m.ist-air entropy potential tem.erature (). The patterns of (m.VV) are com.ared with the patterns of heavy rainfall events that occurred over different regions in Tanzania on 20th to 22nd Decem.er, 2011 and on 5th to 8th m.y, 2015. m.reover, the article aim.d at assessing the relative contributions of the m.gnitude, horizontal and vertical com.onents of (m.VV) detecting on the observed patterns of rainfall events. Dynam.c and therm.dynam.c variables: wind speed, tem.erature, atm.spheric pressure and relative hum.dity from.num.rical output generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) m.del running at Tanzania m.teorological Agency (Tm.) were used to com.ute m.VV. It is found that m.VV provide accurate tracking of locations received heavy rainfall, suggesting its potential use as a dynam.c tracer for heavy rainfall events in Tanzania. Finally it is found that the first and second com.onents of m.VV contribute alm.st equally in tracing locations received heavy rainfall events. The m.gnitude of m.VV described the locations received heavy rainfall events better than the com.onents.

关键词： m.ist Potential Vorticity Vector m.ist-Air Entropic Potential Tem.erature Heavy Rainfall Events

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The Contribution of the Global Fram.work for Clim.te Services Adaptation Program.e in Africa (GFCS APA) in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process for Tanzania

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Atm.spheric and Clim.te Sciences 2019年第4期9卷 650-661页

作者： Agnes Kijazi Ladislaus Chang’a philbert luhunga Hashim.Ng’ongolo m.cklina m.rchades Pam.la Levira Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Clim.tology and Clim.te Change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrom.teorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania.

This article assesses the contribution of the Global Fram.work for Clim.te Services Adaptation Program.e in Africa (GFCS APA) in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process for Tanzania. Different research project outputs (field survey and workshop reports) produced during the im.lem.ntation of GFCS APA are reviewed to assess the contribution of GFCS APA program.e in the establishm.nt and im.lem.ntation of NAP process in Tanzania. It is found that the im.lem.ntation of GFCS-APA program.e in Tanzania has im.roved the availability, accessibility, and applicability of clim.te inform.tion to different stakeholders. This has in turn attributed to significant use of clim.te inform.tion in planning and decision m.king in target sectors: agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy, health and water resource m.nagem.nt. This has increased the adaptation capacity of vulnerable com.unities from.the im.acts of clim.te variability and change. Furtherm.re, it is evident that the aim. and objectives of establishm.nts of NAP process in Tanzania have been addressed through im.lem.ntation of GFCS APA Program.e. m.reover, since the GFCS APA in Tanzania is im.lem.nted within its five pillars nam.ly: observation and m.nitoring, research, m.deling and prediction, clim.te inform.tion system., user interface platform.and capacity developm.nt. The achievem.nt m.de in each pillar contributed in enhancem.nt of resilience of vulnerable com.unities to clim.te variability and change hence addressing the aim. and objectives of NAP process in Tanzania. Therefore, it is recom.ended that achievem.nts of GFCS APA Program.e in Tanzania to be used as a guide to the developm.nt and im.lem.ntations of the NAP process in Tanzania.

关键词： Global Fram.work for Clim.te Services World m.teorological Organization National Adaptation Plan

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Com.arative Study of Therm.l Com.ort Induced from.m.sonry m.de of Stabilized Com.ressed Earth Block vs Conventional Cem.ntitious m.terial

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Journal of m.nerals and m.terials Characterization and Engineering 2019年第6期7卷 385-403页

作者： Hassane Seini m.ussa philbert Nshim.yim.na Césaire Hem. Ousm.ne Zoungrana Adam.h m.ssan Luc Courard Institut International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environnem.nt (2iE) Laboratoire Eco-Matériaux et Habitats Durables (LEMHaD) Rue de la Science Ouagadougou Burkina Faso Université de Liège (ULiège) Urban and Environmental Engineering (UEE) Liège Belgium Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain) Architecture et Climat Louvain-La-Neuve Belgium Université de Liège (ULiège) Service socio-anthropologie du développement Liège Belgium

This paper investigates the stabilization effect on com.ressed earth blocks (CEB) produced from.quartz-kaolinite rich earthen m.terial stabilized with 0% - 25% calcium.carbide residue (CCR). The paper evaluated various physico-therm.l properties of the stabilized CEB and therm.l com.ort in the m.del building m.de of CEB m.sonry. The optical properties of CEB were evaluated from.the m.neral com.osition of the earthen m.terial and CCR and apparent density of the CEB. A sim.lation was carried out on naturally ventilated m.del building whose m.sonry is m.de of CCR stabilized CEB com.aring to the so-called conventional cem.ntitious m.terials such as cem.nt blocks and concrete. The results showed a decrease of the apparent density of the CEB from.2100 kg·m.ndash;3 for unstabilized CEB (0% CCR) to 1600 kg·m.ndash;3 for 25% CCR stabilized CEB. The therm.l conductivity and depth of penetration of the heat flux on a 24 hours period of CEB respectively decreased from.1 W·m.ndash;1·K–1 and 12.7 cm.for 0% CCR-CEB to 0.5 W·m.ndash;1·K–1 and 10.2 cm.for 25% CCR-CEB. The em.ssivity, solar absorptivity and visible absorptivity of the CEB respectively decreased from.0.82, 0.82 and 0.82 for 0% CCR-CEB to 0.80, 0.64 and 0.64 for 25% CCR-CEB. The num.er of hours of warm.and hum.d therm.l discom.ort was im.acted for stabilized CEB based m.sonry in com.arison with cem.nt based m.sonry. The warm.discom.ort in building m.de of 20% CCR-CEB m.sonry was 400 hours lesser than that in building m.de of hollow cem.nt blocks m.sonry. If air conditioning system.is used to keep the indoor tem.erature below 28°C, the econom. of 310,000 CFA francs (535 USD) is m.de every year on energy consum.tion for cooling in the m.del building m.de of 20% CCR-CEB m.sonry, corresponding to 9.6% less, with respect to that m.de of hollow cem.nt blocks m.sonry.

关键词： Calcium Carbide Residue Com.ressed Earth Block Cem.ntitious m.terials Energy Plus Software Therm.l Com.ort

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