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A Hybrid Model Evaluation Based on PCA Regression Schemes Applied to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2024年第3期14卷 328-353页

作者： pedro M. gonzález-Jardines Aleida Rosquete-Estévez Maibys Sierra-Lorenzo Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot Center for Atmospheric Physics Institute of Meteorology Havana Cuba

Possible changes in the structure and seasonal variability of the subtropical ridge may lead to changes in the rainfall’s variability modes over Caribbean region. This generates additional difficulties around water resource planning, therefore, obtaining seasonal prediction models that allow these variations to be characterized in detail, it’s a concern, specially for island states. This research proposes the construction of statistical-dynamic models based on PCA regression methods. It is used as predictand the monthly precipitation accumulated, while the predictors (6) are extracted from the ECMWF-SEAS5 ensemble mean forecasts with a lag of one month with respect to the target month. In the construction of the models, two sequential training schemes are evaluated, obtaining that only the shorter preserves the seasonal characteristics of the predictand. The evaluation metrics used, where cell-point and dichotomous methodologies are combined, suggest that the predictors related to sea surface temperatures do not adequately represent the seasonal variability of the predictand, however, others such as the temperature at 850 hPa and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation are represented with a good approximation regardless of the model chosen. In this sense, the models built with the nearest neighbor methodology were the most efficient. Using the individual models with the best results, an ensemble is built that allows improving the individual skill of the models selected as members by correcting the underestimation of precipitation in the dynamic model during the wet season, although problems of overestimation persist for thresholds lower than 50 mm.

关键词： Seasonal Forecast Principal Component Regression Statistical-Dynamic Models

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A Hybrid Model Evaluation Based on PCA Regression Schemes Applied to Seasonal Precipitation Forecast

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences（大气和气候科学） 2024年第3期 328页

作者： pedro M.gonzález-Jardines Aleida Rosquete-Estévez Maibys Sierra-Lorenzo Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot

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Exploring the dynamic complexity of risk factors for vector-borne infections in sub-Saharan Africa:Case of urban lymphatic filariasis

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2021年第1期3卷 17-21页

作者： Alexandre Zerbo Rafael Castro Delgado pedro Arcos gonzález Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster Faculty of Medicine and Health SciencesUniversity of Oviedo33006 OviedoSpain

Dynamic complexity is often a characteristic of public health issues;to visualize these problems as a system rather than isolated elements,system dynamics modeling may be an appropriate *** dynamic complexity of risk factors for lymphatic filariasis(LF)as an urban vector-borne disease has been addressed using system dynamics *** causal loop diagrams(CLDs)were designed to display the network of interactions of risk factors for urban transmission of LF and a potential set of public health interventions.A stock and flow diagram was also designed to capture the transmission dynamics as an accumulation and flow system,and a simulation model was built and *** system dynamics(SD)methodology is suitable for addressing the dynamic complexity of risk factors for LF in urban settings and is well-suited for public health interventions.

关键词： System dynamics Lymphatic filariasis Urban areas Sub-Saharan Africa

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Water sanitation and hygiene in Sub-Saharan Africa:Coverage, risks of diarrheal diseases, and urbanization

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2021年第1期3卷 41-45页

作者： Alexandre Zerbo Rafael Castro Delgado pedro Arcos gonzález Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster Faculty of Medicine and Health SciencesUniversity of Oviedo33006 OviedoSpain

Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)has a rapidly growing urban population,with water,sanitation,and hygiene(WASH)services representing the central needs for this ***,this region has the lowest global WASH *** from the‘WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water supply,Sanitation and Hygiene’and the‘Global Burden of Disease’study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were used to assess WASH coverage and related health burden in SSA,its subregions,and rural and urban areas in *** coverage in the SSA region appears to be low,but urban coverage is better than that in rural areas;however,there is unequal access to urban WASH and poor urban areas are *** addition,7.75%(5.99–9.7%)of total deaths due to diarrheal diseases across SSA are attributed to unsafe WASH with a risk factor attribution(RFA)percentage of 95.93%(91.94–98.24%).Therefore,a correlation between WASH coverage and mortality due to diarrheal diseases could be *** is a lack of data on WASH coverage in poor urban areas,although these areas have high incidence of WASH-related diseases including *** urban WASH data are needed to better understand the WASH service needs of poor urban areas,which would be helpful in ensuring a more inclusive implementation of WASH services.

关键词： Sub-Saharan Africa WASH Risks of diarrheal diseases Urban areas

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Triglyceride levels and apolipoprotein E polymorphism in patients with acute pancreatitis

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Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2012年第1期11卷 96-101页

作者： Radka Ivanova Susana Puerta Alfonso Garrido Ignacio Cueto Ana Ferro María José Ariza Andrés Cobos pedro gonzález-Santos pedro Valdivielso Division of Internal Medicine Hospital Universitario "Virgen de la Victoria" Division of Gastroenterology Hospital Universitario "Virgen de la Victoria" CIMES Department of Medicine & Dermatology University of Malaga Division of Laboratory Hospital Universitario "Virgen de la Victoria"

BACKGROUND:Hypertriglyceridemia is an unusual cause of acute pancreatitis and sometimes considered to be an *** study aimed to investigate the clinical and analytical features and the APOE genotypes in patients with acute pancreatitis and severe ***:We undertook a one-year,prospective study of patients with acute pancreatitis whose first laboratory analysis on admission to the emergency department included measurement of serum *** APOE genotype was determined and the patients answered an established questionnaire within the first 24 hours concerning their alcohol consumption,the presence of co-morbidities and any medications being *** patients’ progression,etiological diagnosis,hospital stay and clinical and radiological severity were all ***:Hypertriglyceridemia was responsible for 7 of 133 cases of pancreatitis (5%);the remaining cases were of biliary (53%),idiopathic (26%),alcoholic (11%) or other (5%) *** with these remaining cases,the patients with hypertriglyceridemia were significantly younger,had more relapses,and more often had diabetes *** usually consumed alcohol or consumed it excessively on the days before ***,the ε4 allele of the APOE gene was more common in this group (P<0.05).CONCLUSION:One of 20 episodes of acute pancreatitis is caused by hypertriglyceridemia and it is linked to genetic (ε4 allele) and comorbid factors such as diabetes and,especially,alcohol consumption.

关键词： acute pancreatitis hypertriglyceridemia apolipoprotein E alcohol biliary lithiasis

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Vulnerability and everyday health risks of urban informal settlements in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Global Health Journal 2020年第2期4卷 46-50页

作者： Alexandre Zerbo Rafael CDelgado pedro Agonzález Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster University of Oviedo33006 OviedoSpain

More than half of the world population lives in the cities and around one billion in poor urban *** numbers are projected to increase,while Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest rate of informal settlements due his rapid *** urban informal settlements of Sub-Saharan Africa house everyday health *** risks have considerable cumulative impacts on the wellbeing and health of the urban vulnerable *** the public health consequences of urbanization and the increase of informal settlements number in African cities,there is a paucity in data about the risks at small scale and the vulnerability in poor urban *** the database search engine of MEDLINE,WHO Library and Information Networks for Knowledge and website of Urban Africa Risk Knowledge;from information of the existing literature,this paper tried to analyse the everyday health risks,and vulnerabilities in urban informal settlement in Sub-Saharan Africa region.A search combining keywords associated with health risks and informal settlement in Sub-Saharan Africa were used to identify the relevant documents,and this search yielded 86 articles,of which 15 met the criteria for inclusion in the *** risks of communicable diseases due to inadequate sanitation have been the most frequent subjects of *** settlers in Sub-Saharan Africa face everyday health risks arising from lack of clean water,adequate sanitation,and life in overcrowding ***,there is a burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases,undernourishment and *** most vulnerable group is children under five with a high rate of *** health risks in urban informal settlements must be taken into account for a better understanding of the full spectrum of urban *** is essential in the establishment of efficient public health policies and intervention in urban areas.

关键词： Informal settlements Health risk Vulnerability Sub-Saharan Africa

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Cosmic Transmutation Conjecture

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Journal of Modern Physics 2011年第8期2卷 803-811页

作者： pedro F. gonzález-Daz IFF CSIC Serrano 121 28006 Madrid

This paper analyzes the big trip phenomenon, restricting it to happen only in the context of the multiverse when the involved wormhole is asymptotically flat and recent criticisms are pointless. A new kind of Lorentzian asymptotically anti-de Sitter wormholes is considered in some detail and it is seen that such wormholes cannot contribute the big trip phenomenon. The ideas of big trip, multiverse and Boltzmann brains are then used to advance the conjecture of cosmic transmutation according to which the host universe where one of the mouths of a grown up wormhole is inserted may be converted into a universe similar to the traveling one if the latter contains a civilization which is typical also in the host universe. The origin of life in the context of the multiverse is then briefly discussed.

关键词： Big Trip Multiverse Boltzmann Brains Transmutation

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Is the Cosmic big Trip Just a Classical Wormhole Artifact?

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International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics 2011年第2期1卷 83-89页

作者： pedro F. gonzález-Daz 不详

Starting with the original sub-quantum dark energy model, the current accelerating phase of the evolution of the universe is considered by constructing most economical cosmic models that use just general relativity and some dominating quantum effects associated with the probabilistic description of quantum physics. Two of such models are explicitly considered. They support an interpretation of dark energy in terms of the entangled energy of the universe. The model only violates the dominant energy condition quantum mechanically, that is by an amount given by the entanglement energy density, and gives rise to an asymptotically anti-de Sitter wormhole that becomes an asymptotically flat wormhole in the classical limit. It is shown that for most cosmic solutions such a wormhole does not predict any big trip phenomenon when it accretes phantom like energy.

关键词： Lorentzian Dynamic Wormholes Entanglement Energy Thermodynamics Thermal Radiation

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Why a universe as a whole must be a quantum object

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Natural Science 2011年第5期3卷 397-400页

作者： pedro F. gonzález-Díaz 不详

Technical and physical reasons are given in favor of the idea that single universes, accelerating or not, essentially are quantum-mechanical entities without any classical analogs, even when they are forming part of a... 详细信息

关键词： Decoherence Baby Universes Bell's Inequalities

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Modeling and Simulation of Molecular Mechanism of Action of Dietary Polyphenols on the Inhibition of Anti-Apoptotic PI3K/AKT Pathway

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Computational Molecular Bioscience 2013年第3期3卷 39-52页

作者： pedro Pablo gonzález-Pérez Maura Cárdenas-García Departamento de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Sistemas Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana México D.F. México Facultad de Medicina Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla Puebla México

In recent years, the role of dietary phenolic compounds in the regulation of cellular metabolism in normal and pathological conditions has become increasingly important in cancer research. In most cases, the molecular mechanism of action related to the anticarcinogenic effect of phenolic compounds has been studied in vitro and in animal models, but these studies are still not complete. It is precisely here where in silico approaches can be an invaluable tool for complementing in vitro and in vivo research. In this paper, we adopt a tuple space-based modeling and simulation approach, and show how it can be applied to the simulation of complex interaction patterns of intracellular signaling pathways. Specifically, we are working to explore and to understand the molecular mechanism of action of dietary phenolic compounds on the inhibition of the PI3K/AKT anti-apoptotic pathway. As a first approximation, using the tuple spaces- based in silico approach, we model and simulate the anti-apoptotic PI3K/AKT pathway in the absence and presence of phenolic compounds, in order to determine the effectiveness of our platform, to employ it in future prediction of experimentally non visualized interactions between the pathway components and phenolic compounds.

关键词： Anti-Apoptotic Intracellular Signaling Pathway Computer Simulation Self-Organizing Coordination

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