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Proportional Trapping Capture-recapture Model for a Heterogeneous Population

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Proportional Trapping Capture-recapture Model for a Heteroge...

Changes in the epidemiological profile of suicide in Hong Kong:a 40-year retrospective decomposition analysis

中国现场统计研究会第12届学术年会

作者： yip paul University of Hong Kong Hong Kong

In capture-recapture studies, capture probabilities would depend on both individuals’ covariates and the decreasing number of available traps during the experiment. In this paper, we examine a proportional trapping model with the use of individuals’ covariates in modelling the heterogeneity. We use the martingale estimating equation to obtain an estimator for the population size. It is proved to be asymptotically normal. Simulations and a real example are used to assess the performance of the proposed estimator.

关键词： Covariates Heterogeneity Martingale Proportional trapping-removal

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China Population and Development Studies 2021年第4期5卷 153-173页

作者： Chi-Ting Yang paul Siu Fai yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Hong KongHong KongChina Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention The University of Hong KongHong KongChina Department of Social Work and Social Administration The University of Hong KongHong KongChina

The suicide rate in Hong Kong has increased significantly over the past four *** subgroups such as the elderly or economically-distressed are reported to be more vulnerable than others to suicidal behaviors,while changing suicide meth-ods(such as charcoal burning which emerged in 1998),has also contributed signifi-cantly to increasing suicide ***,the extent of the contribution of different factors to changes in suicide rate remains *** paper reported on a decom-position analysis of the epidemiological profile of suicide in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2015,specifically considering factors underlying the increasing suicide rate over this *** death registry information was available from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong SAR for this *** compared absolute and relative contributions of gender,age and suicide method to rate changes over *** in suicide rate were generally underpinned by more than one *** aging in a rapidly-aging city contributed significantly to suicide rate increases,whilst jumping from a height had the greatest influence on rate changes throughout the study *** by male aged 25-34 years and 45-54 years were more likely to be triggered by economic factors,compared with the other gender-age *** decomposition approach provided a compre-hensive understanding about how socioeconomic factors and suicide methods inter-acted to influence over-time suicide *** research supports development of more focused suicide prevention measures to reduce suicide rate.

关键词： Suicide Hong Kong Decomposition analysis Epidemiological trend

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门槛回归模型中门槛值和回归参数的估计

中国科学：数学 2016年第4期46卷 409-422页

作者：蒋家坤林华珍蒋靓 yip paul Siu Fai 西南财经大学统计学院统计研究中心成都611130 四川大学数学学院成都610064 香港大学社会工作及社会行政学系

门槛模型中有两个关键问题:门槛个数的选择和门槛参数的估计.本文提出的判罚光滑最小二乘方法同时解决这两个问题.本文的方法避免了为确定门槛个数所需的假设检验,计算简单.回归参数估计被证明是n-^(1/2)相合且渐近正态,门槛参数估计被... 详细信息

门槛模型中有两个关键问题:门槛个数的选择和门槛参数的估计.本文提出的判罚光滑最小二乘方法同时解决这两个问题.本文的方法避免了为确定门槛个数所需的假设检验,计算简单.回归参数估计被证明是n-^(1/2)相合且渐近正态,门槛参数估计被证明是(n/h-)^(1/2)相合且渐近正态.数值模拟和实际例子结果显示本文方法有效可行.

关键词：门槛模型光滑最小二乘 SCAD(smoothly clipped absolute deviation)判罚

A decomposition analysis to examine the change in the number of recipients in the comprehensive social security assistance(CSSA)system

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China Population and Development Studies 2021年第1期4卷 284-297页

作者： paul yip Milton Chan B.K.So K.P.Wat Kwok Fai Lam Social Work and Social Administration The University of Hong KongHong Kong SARPeople’s Republic of China Center for Suicide Research and Prevention The University of Hong KongHong Kong SARPeople’s Republic of China Department of Mathematics Jilin UniversityChangChunPeople’s Republic of China Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Hong KongHong Kong SARPeople’s Republic of China

Social security is an important social and public policy measure to help address poverty in any contemporary *** Comprehensive Social Security Assistance(CSSA)system in Hong Kong provides a safety net for those aged children and adults below 65 years old who cannot support themselves *** is designed to bring their income up to a prescribed level to meet their basic *** rapid increase in social welfare expenditure in the last decade has become a concern to the Hong Kong SAR *** overall social welfare expenditure has accounted for nearly 15.6%of government expenditure in 2018,with the total amount increasing from$58 billion to$90 billion(an increase of 72.4%)for the period ***,the amount spent on CSSA only increased from$20.7 billion to$22.3 billion with an increase of 7.7%only for the same *** much slower magnitude of increase is related to the reduction in the number of CSSA recipients,which decreased from 237,501 to 185,528 over the period.A decomposition method was used to assess the changes in the number of people in the CSSA *** showed that the rate of arriving into the system has been decreasing due to a robust economy with a very low unemployment rate;whereas moving out of the system has also been decreasing in the past 5 *** phenomenon can be partly attributed to the widening of the income gap in the community in the *** the increase in population size,as long as employment conditions remain strong and the momentum of leaving the system can be maintained,the number of CSSA recipients will continue to ***,the results also suggested that a certain proportion of CSSA recipients will not be able to move out of the system and have been *** innovative methods to help them out of CSSA are *** view of the poor economic outlook arising from the COVID-19 pandemic,it is important for the Government to have effective measures to keep people in their *** the

关键词： Comprehensive Social Security Assistance(CSSA)system Social security Decomposition analysis

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自残未遂者对社区服务的认知及启示

International Journal of Nursing Sciences 2019年第1期6卷 50-57页

作者：梁明周镇邦叶柏强叶兆辉 Central Nursing Division Princess Margaret HospitalHKSARChina Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine LKS Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHKSARChina Hospital Authority Infectious Disease Centre Princess Margaret HospitalHKSARChina Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine The University of Hong Kong-Shen Zhen HospitalShen ZhenChina Department of Social Work and Social Administration The University of Hong KongHKSARChina Jockey Club Center of Suicide Research and Prevention The University of Hong KongHKSARChina

目的旨在探索自残未遂者对社区社会服务的看法,包括在寻求帮助和服务时的障碍。方法研究参与者包括年龄15岁及以上有过自残行为的患者,包括2例女性、9例男性,年龄24~58岁。本研究采用自行设计的一套引导性问题,调查他们在社区寻求社会... 详细信息

目的旨在探索自残未遂者对社区社会服务的看法,包括在寻求帮助和服务时的障碍。方法研究参与者包括年龄15岁及以上有过自残行为的患者,包括2例女性、9例男性,年龄24~58岁。本研究采用自行设计的一套引导性问题,调查他们在社区寻求社会服务时遇到的一般障碍和可获得性。调查时进行了录音,随后将其转换为文本记录并进行内容分析,同时进行共现和相似度矩阵解释。结果研究参与者拥有不同的经历和背景,对社区社会服务的态度也不同。但是,他们普遍认为需要加强社区社会服务。鉴于服务可用性,参与者不知道社区中可用的护理/社会服务类型,也不知道附近所提供的社会服务。他们建议延长服务时间,并提供针对性服务,以帮助有不同背景和需求的人士。而曾经接受过社区服务者同时拥有正面和负面的观点,他们主要建议延长服务时间及提供针对性服务,如赌博控制和财务规划。对于与服务提供者的互动,参与者表示社会服务者需拥有建立高度信任关系和关怀及咨询的技能。结论结果显示,自残未遂者陷入经济困难(赌博)和社会分裂(离婚,不良家庭关系和不良婚姻关系)的情况很常见,这提示在社区服务中心设置、工作方式和照顾者技能方面应加以改善。

关键词：自残社区卫生服务认知病人

新浪微博用户中自杀死亡和无自杀意念者特征差异的研究

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中华流行病学杂志 2015年第5期36卷 421-425页

作者：管理郝碧波刘天俐程绮瑾叶兆辉朱廷劭中国科学院心理研究所社会与工程研究室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京大学人口研究所香港大学香港赛马会防止自杀研究中心

目的探讨新浪微博用户中自杀死亡与无自杀意念者行为和语言特征的差异.方法经新浪微博认证用户提供的信息,收集31名网络识别自杀死亡用户（自杀死亡组）;邀请微博用户填写自杀意念相关筛查量表,收集30名无自杀意念用户（对照组）.比... 详细信息

目的探讨新浪微博用户中自杀死亡与无自杀意念者行为和语言特征的差异.方法经新浪微博认证用户提供的信息,收集31名网络识别自杀死亡用户（自杀死亡组）;邀请微博用户填写自杀意念相关筛查量表,收集30名无自杀意念用户（对照组）.比较两组用户在10种微博行为和88种语言特征方面的差异.结果（1）行为特征中,自杀死亡组的微博链接率（链接微博数与公开微博总数的比值）和微博互动率（平均每篇微博@其他用户的次数）均低于对照组[0.04（0.04）vs.0.06（0.04）,P=0.029;0.60（0.27）vs.0.69（0.18）,P=0.028],自我关注程度（平均每篇公开微博使用的第一人称单数次数）高于对照组[0.47（0.25）vs0.30（0.10）,P=0.010];（2）语言特征中,自杀死亡组在数量单位词、工作词、省略号使用率低于对照组（均P＜0.05）,在代名词、特定人称代名词、第三人称单数、非特定人称代名词、社会历程词、焦虑词、排除词、性词、宗教词、第二人称单数、人类词、消极情绪词、愤怒词、悲伤词和死亡词的使用率均高于对照组（均P＜0.05）.结论自杀死亡用户的微博互动更少,更加关注自我,更频繁地使用表达排除意义的词语,从情感层面上有更多负性表达,使用更多与死亡、宗教相关而更少与工作相关的表达.这些特点对开展针对网络用户的自杀学研究有重要启示.

关键词：自杀微博网络行为文本分析社交媒体

Does low volume high-intensity interval training elicit superior benefits to continuous low to moderate-intensity training in cancer survivors?

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World Journal of Clinical Oncology 2018年第1期9卷 1-12页

作者： Kellie Toohey Kate Pumpa Andrew McKune Julie Cooke Katrina D DuBose Desmond yip paul Craft Stuart Semple Discipline of Sport and Exercise Science Faculty of Health University of Canberra Research Institute for Sport and Exercise University of Canberra Health Research Institute University of Canberra Discipline of Biokinetics Exercise and Leisure Sciences School of Health Sciences University of Kwa ZuluNatal the College of Health and Hunan Performance East Carolina University ANU Medical School the Australian National University Health Research Institute University of Canberra

AIM To determine the impact ofm low volume high-intensity interval training(LVHIIT) and continuous low to moderate-intensity exercise training(CLMIT) on cardiovascular disease(CVD) risk and health outcomes in cancer *** Sedentary cancer survivors(n=75,aged 51±12year)within 24 months of diagnosis,were randomised into three groups for 12 wk of LVHIIT(n=25),CLMIT(n=25)or control group(n=25).The exercise intervention involved 36 sessions(three sessions per week).The LVHIIT group performed 7 x 30 s intervals(≥85%predicted maximal heart rate)with a 60 s rest between intervals,and the CLMIT group performed continuous aerobic training for 20 min(≤55%predicted maximal heart rate)on a stationary *** variables were measured at baseline and at12 weeks and analysed using a 3 x 2(group x time)repeated measures ANCOVA to evaluate main and interaction *** Significant improvements(time)were observed for seven of the 22 variables(ES 0.35-0.97,P≤0.05).There was an interaction effect(P<0.01)after 12 in the LVHIIT group for six-minute walk test(P<0.01;d=0.97;95%CI:0.36,1.56;large),sit to stand test(P<0.01;d=-0.83;95%CI:-1.40,-0.22;large)and waist circumference reduction(P=0.01;d=-0.48;95%CI:-1.10,0.10;medium).An interaction effect(P<0.01)was also observed for quality of life in both the LVHIIT(d=1.11;95CI:0.50,1.72;large)and CLMIT(d=0.57;95%CI:-0.00,1.20;moderate)compared with the control group(d=-0.15;95%CI:-0.95,0.65;trivial).CONCLUSION Low-volume high-intensity training shows promise as an effective exercise prescription within the cancer population,showing greater improvements in cardiorespiratory fitness,lower body strength and waist circumference compared with traditional CLMIT and control *** LVHIIT and CLMIT improved quality of life.A proposed benefit of LVHIIT is the short duration(3 min)of exercise required,which may entice more cancer survivors to participate in exercise,improving health outcomes and lowing the risk of CVD.

关键词： High-intensity exercise Health Oncology Exercise prescription

A study on population dynamics in“Belt&Road”countries and their implications

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China Population and Development Studies 2018年第2期2卷 158-172页

作者： Mengni Chen paul S.F.yip Department of Social Work and Social Administration The University of Hong KongPokfulamHong Kong Wittgenstein Centre(IIASA VID/ÖAWWU)Vienna University of Economics and Business(WU)Welthandelsplatz2Level 21020 ViennaAustria

China’s Belt&Road(“B&R”)initiative has attracted much attention in recent *** studies have assessed the potential impacts of this initiative from the economic,political,foreign relations,and military ***,very little attention has been paid to examine the opportunities and challenges of this new initiative from a demographic ***,this study investigates into the population dynamics of 65 countries in the B&R region,and explores the demographic dynamics of this regional cooperation *** on graphic visualization,the demographic heterogeneities within the B&R region,in terms of current stages of demographic transitions,population age structure,and demographic windows of opportunities have been ***,a model-based cluster analysis has been conducted to classify the B&R countries into two *** group consists of countries with younger population,low education access,and larger gender gap in the labor market,while the other group comprises of more aged population and has better performances in economic development,education enrolment,and female labor *** demographic windows of opportunities in the former group will remain open for the coming decades;whereas the windows have already closed or is about to close very soon in the latter *** former group should take lessons from the latter concerning how to better prepare themselves for the demographic ***,the curvilinear relationship between wealth and well-being has a complicated structure and the B&R initiative should focus not only on economic development but also on the human well-being.

关键词： Belt and road initiative Population dynamics Demographic heterogeneity Economic development Well-being

The almost sure behavior of the oscillation modulus for PL-process and cumulative hazard process under random censorship

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Science China Mathematics 1999年第3期42卷 225-237页

作者：周勇孙六全 paul S.F.yip Department of Statistics University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China

The local behavior of oscillation modulus of the product-limit (PL) process and the cumulative hazard process is investigated when the data are subjected to random censoring. Laws of the iterated logarithm of local oscillation modulus for the PL-process and the cumulative hazard process are established. Some of these results are applied to obtain the almost sure best rates of convergence for various types of density estimators as well as the Bahadur-Kiefer type process.

关键词： censorship oscillation modulus product-limit process cumulative hazard process law of the iterated logarithm (LIL).