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Prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 101-112页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU nick dunstone Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere–ocean–land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east–west dipole local sea surface temperature(SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air–sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST–rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air–sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high seasonal forecast neutral year air–sea interaction

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Dynamical Predictability of Leading Interannual Variability Modes of the Asian-Australian Monsoon in Climate Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 1998-2012,I0002,I0003页

作者： Lin WANG Hong-Li REN Fang ZHOU nick dunstone Xiangde XU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeterDevonEX13PBUnited Kingdom

The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate *** this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers *** show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second *** first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central *** second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and *** findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM ***,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial *** multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal *** BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM *** predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.

关键词： Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM) leading interannual variability modes El Niño seasonal forecasting models multimodel ensemble(MME)

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Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.BETT nick dunstone Nicola GOLDING Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

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The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2055-2066页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU nick dunstone Adam ASCAIFE Philip EBETT Fei ZHENG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterDevon EX44QFUK International Center for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

During June and July of 2020,the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic *** study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event,based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast *** forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin,which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature(SST)and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH,and the forecasts captured these tropical signals *** explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet(EAJ).The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River ***,the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong *** observations,the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020,which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin,and favor more mei-yu *** model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these *** difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall,hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.

关键词： seasonal forecast Yangtze River rainfall western North Pacific subtropical high westerly jet

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Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN nick J.dunstone Adam A.SCAIFE Philip E.BETT Met Office Exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast skill EASMI monthly mean rainfall East Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

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Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2127-2134页

作者： Yu NIE Jie WU Jinqing ZUO Hong-Li REN Adam A.SCAIFE nick dunstone Steven C.HARDIMAN China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Institute of Tibetan Plateau&Polar MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100089China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom University of Exeter Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large *** subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great *** two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off *** models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the *** skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in *** examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage *** underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

关键词： Northeast Asia cut-off lows subseasonal prediction skill jet stream

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Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM_(2.5)Concentration in Beijing

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第5期37卷 632-642页

作者： Jingpeng LIU Adam A.SCAIFE nick dunstone Hong-Li REN Doug SMITH Steven CHARDIMAN Bo WU China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom College of Engineering Mathematicsand Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter EX44QGUnited Kingdom State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the *** to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air pollution is unsettled *** study tries to provide a solution to this challenge by examining the winter PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing based on the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN)*** PM_(2.5)concentration observations in Beijing,Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,and the Met Office near term climate prediction system(DePreSys3a)large ensemble simulations are used,and 10,000proxy series are generated with the model fidelity *** is found that in Beijing,the main meteorological driver of PM_(2.5)concentration is monthly 850-hPa meridional wind(V850).Although the skill in prediction of V850 is low on seasonal and longer timescales,based on the UNSEEN,we use large ensemble of initialized climate simulations of V850 to estimate the current chance and risk of unprecedented PM_(2.5)concentration in *** unravel that there is a 3%(2.1%–3.9%)chance of unprecedented low monthly V850 corresponding to high PM_(2.5)in each winter,within the 95%range,calculated by bootstrap resampling of the ***,we use the relationship between air quality and winds to remove the meridional wind influence from the observed record,and find that anthropogenic intervention appears to have reduced the risk of extreme PM_(2.5)in Beijing in recent years.

关键词： UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN) climate risk PM_(2.5) Beijing

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Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 253-260,339页

作者： Gill M.MARTIN Amulya CHEVUTURI Ruth E.COMER nick J.dunstone Adam A.SCAIFE Daquan ZHANG Met Office Hadley Centre Met Office NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology University of Reading College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter University Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.

关键词： SCSSM South China Sea summer monsoon EASM East Asian summer monsoon

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.BETT Gill M.MARTIN nick dunstone Adam A.SCAIFE Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer Monsoon

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Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 22-30页

作者： Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG nick dunstone Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall ENSO hydroelectricity

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