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Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2019年第5期13卷 1007-1019页

作者： narjes soltani Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tarbiat Modares UniversityTehran ***Iran Department of Civil Engineering Shahid Beheshti UniversityTehran ***Iran

The probabilistic risk of arch dam failure under thermal loading is studied. The incorporated uncertainties, which are defined as random variables, are associated with the most affecting structural (material) properties o f concrete and thermal loading conditions. Karaj arch dam is selected as case study. The dam is numerically modeled along with its foundation in three-dimensional space;the temperature and thermal stress distribution is investigated during the operating phase. The deterministic thermal finite element analysis o f the dam is combined with the structural reliability methods in order to obtain thermal response predictions, and estimate the probability o f failure in the risk analysis context. The tensile overstressing failure mode is considered for the reliability analysis. The thermal loading includes ambient air and reservoir temperature variations. The effect o f solar radiation is considered by an increase in the ambient temperatures. Three reliability methods are employed: the first-order second-moment method, the first-order reliability method, and the Monte-Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling. The estimated failure probabilities are discussed and the sensitivity o f random variables is investigated. Although most of the studies in this line o f research are used only for academic purposes, the results of this investigation can be used for both academic and engineering purposes.

关键词： arch dams probabilistic analysis thermal stress sensitivity reliability

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