Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams

作     者：Narjes SOLTANI Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI 

作者机构：Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringTarbiat Modares UniversityTehran ***Iran Department of Civil EngineeringShahid Beheshti UniversityTehran ***Iran 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering》 (结构与土木工程前沿（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第13卷第5期

页      面：1007-1019页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 08[工学] 

主　　题：arch dams probabilistic analysis thermal stress sensitivity reliability 

摘      要：The probabilistic risk of arch dam failure under thermal loading is studied. The incorporated uncertainties, which are defined as random variables, are associated with the most affecting structural (material) properties o f concrete and thermal loading conditions. Karaj arch dam is selected as case study. The dam is numerically modeled along with its foundation in three-dimensional space;the temperature and thermal stress distribution is investigated during the operating phase. The deterministic thermal finite element analysis o f the dam is combined with the structural reliability methods in order to obtain thermal response predictions, and estimate the probability o f failure in the risk analysis context. The tensile overstressing failure mode is considered for the reliability analysis. The thermal loading includes ambient air and reservoir temperature variations. The effect o f solar radiation is considered by an increase in the ambient temperatures. Three reliability methods are employed: the first-order second-moment method, the first-order reliability method, and the Monte-Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling. The estimated failure probabilities are discussed and the sensitivity o f random variables is investigated. Although most of the studies in this line o f research are used only for academic purposes, the results of this investigation can be used for both academic and engineering purposes.