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经济密度与企业风险决策——密度风险选择效应的理论与实证分析

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财贸经济 2024年第4期45卷 123-140页

作者：徐瑛仲艾芬石敏俊中国人民大学应用经济学院 100872 浙江大学公共管理学院 310058

本文基于Melitz和Ottaviano(2008)的效率异质性模型,构建了企业两阶段风险决策模型,内化经济密度对于风险的选择效应,以揭示经济密度影响企业风险决策行为的机制和过程。理论模型显示如下结果。(1)当经济密度过低时,增加密度将降低风险... 详细信息

本文基于Melitz和Ottaviano(2008)的效率异质性模型,构建了企业两阶段风险决策模型,内化经济密度对于风险的选择效应,以揭示经济密度影响企业风险决策行为的机制和过程。理论模型显示如下结果。(1)当经济密度过低时,增加密度将降低风险;当经济密度过高时,增加密度会增加风险;经济空间内存在风险最小化的最优密度。(2)在经济密度之外,租金、企业数量、产品多样性等因素也对企业经营风险产生影响。本文以北京市五环内生活性服务业为例,基于腾讯位置大数据、城市生活性服务业POI及倒闭率、商铺和住宅租金等微观数据,进行实证检验后发现以下三点结论。(1)北京市高密度地区,密度对风险的影响为正;低密度地区反之。北京市二环是影响逆转的分界线。(2)北京市消费密度和就业密度,通过租金、企业数量和产品多样性三个中介变量影响企业倒闭风险。其中,最显著的影响路径是:消费密度影响产品多样性,进而影响企业倒闭风险。可见,集聚经济降低风险的关键不在于企业数量,而在于差异化集聚。(3)北京市三环是集聚力和竞争力对比逆转的分界线:三环外集聚力超过竞争力,有利于企业风险降低,三环内反之。

关键词：经济密度企业风险决策风险异质性集聚经济腾讯位置大数据

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生态产品价值实现的治理机制与政策设计

环境经济研究 2024年第3期9卷 1-10页

作者：石敏俊浙江大学公共管理学院 310058

从生态产品价值实现的初衷出发,可以从两个方面理解生态产品价值实现的核心要义:一是生态财富的市场认可,二是生态财富的制度认可。前者通过生态产业化,使生态资源成为生产要素参与经济活动,使隐性的生态产品价值得到市场的认可,目的是... 详细信息

从生态产品价值实现的初衷出发,可以从两个方面理解生态产品价值实现的核心要义:一是生态财富的市场认可,二是生态财富的制度认可。前者通过生态产业化,使生态资源成为生产要素参与经济活动,使隐性的生态产品价值得到市场的认可,目的是把生态财富转化为经济财富,支持生态优势地区培育形成新的经济增长点。后者通过生态补偿机制等制度和政策设计,使隐性的生态服务价值得到制度的认可,目的是让保护修复生态环境的行为获得合理回报,让生态功能地区更好地保护生态环境。当前,生态产品价值实现的治理机制尚不健全,完善生态产品价值实现的治理机制,其核心是明晰相关的利益主体及其责任分担和利益协调机制。对于生态产业化,需要重视要素报酬分配机制设计,让投入生态产业的人造资本与人力资本得到合理回报,以吸纳社会资本进入生态产业化领域。政府调节型生态补偿的治理机制设计涉及上下级政府之间、异地政府之间的补偿机制设计,其核心问题是明确补什么、补多少。市场化生态补偿的治理机制需要协调好保护修复生态环境的投入与收益之间的关系。完善生态产品价值实现的治理机制需要通过政策设计,厘清利益相关方之间的责任分担、利益协调、价值流闭环等问题。

关键词：生态产品价值生态产业化生态补偿治理机制利益相关方

DEVELOPMENT OF CALCULATING MODEL APPLICABLE FOR CYLINDER WALL DYNAMIC HEAT TRANSFER

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Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2007年第1期20卷 60-63页

作者： ZHONG minjun shi Tielin School of Mechanical Science and Engineering Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan 430064. China

In the calculation of submarine air conditioning load of the early stage, the obtained heat is regarded as cooling load. The confusion of the two words causing the cooling load figured out is abnormally high, and the change of air conditioning cooling load can not be indicated. In accordance with submarine structure and heat transfer characteristics of its inner components, Laplace transformation to heat conduction differential equation of cylinder wall is carried out. The dynamic calculation of submarine conditioning load based on this model is also conducted, and the results of calculation are compared with those of static cooling load calculation. It is concluded that the dynamic cooling load calculation methods can illustrate the change of submarine air conditioning cooling load more accurate than the static one.

关键词： Cylinder wall Air conditioning Load calculation

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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Chinese Geographical Science 2015年第6期25卷 657-671页

作者： LI Na shi minjun SHANG Zhiyuan YUAN Yongna University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science Chinese Academy of Sciences

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

关键词： total energy consumption control energy quota allocation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model induced energytechnology improvements

Income Growth,Urbanization,Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2012年第2期10卷 120-128页

作者： Wang Yan shi minjun Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Communication University of China Beijing 100024China

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents' life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.

关键词： consumption-induced energy requirements incomegrowth urbanization life style change input-output analysis China

Water-saving Technologies,Solar Green House and Ecological Rehabilitation in Minqin Oasis of Gansu Province,China

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2008年第3期6卷 73-82页

作者： Tao Weichun shi minjun Zhao Xuetao Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Beijing 100049 China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science CAS Beijing 100080 China

Land degradation and desertification have become severe environmental problems in arid areas due to excessive use of water resources. It is urgent to reduce agricultural water use for ecological rehabilitation, which may result in a decrease in agricultural production and farmer＇s welfare. This paper focused on the impacts of some main measures including extensions of watersaving irrigation, expanding solar green house and increasing off-farm employment, which are generally recognized to be important to alleviate water shortage and poverty. A bioconomic model is applied taking Minqin Oasis in Gansu Province as a case study site. Simulation results showed that the effect of expanding solar greenhouse was more positive than other ones so it drew more attention. On the view of the different effects between each irrigation zone, mixed policy patterns suitable for them are suggested. In Baqu, expanding solar greenhouse should be the most important, auxiliary with encouraging pipe irrigation. Inversely, with regard to Quanshan, the major attention should be paid to subsidy for pipe irrigation and it would be better to supply the off-farm employment opportunities to the households in Huqu, where the expanding of solar greenhouse should also be summoned. Finally, it should be noted that farmer＇s income would only resume to 90% of the current level in the short run by putting more effort into local policies. Thus, the ecological compensation is needed to ensure farmer＇s welfare.

关键词： water-saving technologies solar green house Minqin Oasis ecological rehabilitation

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2011年第3期2卷 124-133页

作者： Shenglii Zhou minjun shi Na Li Yongna Yuan Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Date Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

关键词： dynamic energy-environment-economy CGE model carbon tax mitigation effect economic impact

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新质生产力的科学内涵与绿色发展

中国环境管理 2024年第3期16卷 5-9页

作者：石敏俊陈岭楠王志凯程翠云王金南浙江大学公共管理学院浙江杭州310058 生态环境部环境规划院北京100041

发展新质生产力是新时期推动高质量发展和美丽中国建设的内在要求和重要着力点。本文从新质生产力的科学内涵出发,探究了新质生产力与绿色生产力之间的理论逻辑。新质生产力是一种更先进的生产力质态,体现为劳动者素质提高、劳动资料改... 详细信息

发展新质生产力是新时期推动高质量发展和美丽中国建设的内在要求和重要着力点。本文从新质生产力的科学内涵出发,探究了新质生产力与绿色生产力之间的理论逻辑。新质生产力是一种更先进的生产力质态,体现为劳动者素质提高、劳动资料改进、劳动对象拓展、科学技术进步和管理效能提升,即经济学视角中人造资本、人力资本、生态资源等不同生产要素的配置优化,核心内涵在于人力资本累积和全要素生产率对经济产出的贡献。新质生产力和绿色生产力都以人与自然和谐共生的生产力观为根基,“新质生产力本身就是绿色生产力”,既指明了“绿色”是新质生产力的必要条件,同时又强调了新质生产力应当促进绿色发展。新质生产力有助于促进经济绿色化和绿色经济化的进一步转变,是绿色发展的驱动力。同时,绿色新质生产力驱动绿色产业与生态产品第四产业蓬勃发展,应成为新的经济增长点。

关键词：新质生产力绿色生产力绿色发展人与自然和谐共生人力资本

A study of benef its compensation mechanism for agricultural water rights trading under the restriction of ecological reconstruction:a case study of shiyang River basin

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Ecological Economy 2008年第4期4卷 454-461页

作者： Zhao Xuetao shi minjun Tao Weichun Graduate University Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 P. R. China Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 P R. China

Agricultural water allocation system based on priority rights has caused regional conflicts and downstream ecological degradation. It is the urgent need to introduce the concept of the initial water rights and establish benefits compensation mechanism to resolve such problems. This paper takes the shiyang River basin as an example to calculate the opportunity cost of 0.97×10^8 m^3 of agricultural water encroached by the middle reach based on initial water right allocation system under which water is allocated in accordance with the ratio between agricultural population of two different regions concerning the downstream ecological reconstruction needs with Bio-economic model （BEM）. The results suggest that the total economic loss of Minqin County for ecological reconstruction amounts to 2.5 7×10^8 yuan, of which 1.68×10^8 yuan is ecological compensation, representing the economic loss Minqin suffered for ecological reconstruction which shouM burden beneficial groups of ecological reconstruction and 0.89 ×10^8 yuan is the economic loss Minqin suffered due to Liangzhou＇s encroachment behavior which should be compensated by Liangzhou.

关键词： Ecological reconstruction Water right trading, Benefit compensation shiyang River basin