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China CDC weekly 2022年第40期4卷 885-889,I0002-I0005页

作者： Yuan Bai Mingda Xu Caifen Liu Mingwang Shen Lin Wang Linwei Tian Suoyi Tan Lei Zhang Petter Holme Xin Lu Eric H.Y.Lau Benjamin J.Cowling Zhanwei Du WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited(D24H) Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’an CityShaanxi ProvinceChina Department of Genetics University of CambridgeCambridge CB23EHUK College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha CityHunan ProvinceChina Department of Computer Science Aalto UniversityEspooFinland Center for Computational Social Science Kobe UniversityKobeJapan

Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in China.Risk estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control measures.Methods:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation risks.Results:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,2022.In a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 days.The average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 days.Conclusions:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.

关键词： Export Changchun prevention

Mass testing—An underexplored strategy for COVID-19 control

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The Innovation 2021年第2期2卷 137-138页

作者： Mingwang Shen Yanni Xiao Guihua Zhuang Yan Li Lei Zhang China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’an 710061China School of Mathematics and Statistics Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049China Department of Population Health Science and Policy Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNY 10029USA Department of Obstetrics Gynecologyand Reproductive ScienceIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNY 10029USA Melbourne Sexual Health Centre Alfred HealthMelbourneVICAustralia Central Clinical School Faculty of MedicineNursing and Health SciencesMonash UniversityMelbourneVICAustralia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics College of Public HealthZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China

Mass testing is an intervention strategy for COVID-19 control in the general population regardless of the presentation of symptoms.It involves collecting nasal or pharyngeal swabs for DNA testing,often using the polymerase chain reaction method.Countries that have used mass testing consider it to be a viable strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic as the strategy can potentially identify and isolate asymptomatic cases in the early stages of infection and reduce the risk of virus transmission.Since the reopening of Wuhan,China,in early April 2020,China has conducted mass testings in three megacities with populations of over 10 million,including Beijing and Qingdao1 at the beginning of their local outbreaks,and Wuhan immediately after the reopening.

关键词： testing strategy Wuhan

What Is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon Lifting Quarantine in Wuhan City,China

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The Innovation 2020年第1期1卷 152-157页

作者： Lei Zhang Mingwang Shen Xiaomeng Ma Shu Su Wenfeng Gong Jing Wang Yusha Tao Zhuoru Zou Rui Zhao Joseph T.F.Lau Wei Li Feng Liu Kai Ye Youfa Wang Guihua Zhuang Christopher K.Fairley China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’anShaanxi 710061PR China Melbourne Sexual Health Centre Alfred HealthMelbourneAustralia Central Clinical School Faculty of MedicineNursing and Health SciencesMonash UniversityMelbourneVICAustralia Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics College of Public HealthZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001 HenanChina Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation University of TorontoTorontoONCanada School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Faculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneAustralia Centre for Research Behaviors Centre for Health Behaviours ResearchSchool of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongHong Kong Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation SeattleWAUSA Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics School of Public HealthSoutheast UniversityNanjing210009 JiangsuChina Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xi’an710054 ShaanxiChina MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks&Networks Security Faculty of Electronics and Information EngineeringXi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049 China School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronics and Information EngineeringXi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049 China Genome Institute the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710061 China The School of Life Science and Technology Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049 China Global Health Institute Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsSchool of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’anShaanxi 710061China

BACKGROUND The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19.Lifting of this quarantine is imminent.We modelled the e... 详细信息

关键词： Wuhan break Major

Estimating the time interval between transmission generations and the presymptomatic period by contact tracing surveillance data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China

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Fundamental Research 2021年第2期1卷 104-110页

作者： Zhongxing Ding Kai Wang Mingwang Shen Kai Wang Shi Zhao Wenyu Song Rui Li Zhongjie Li Liping Wang Ganzhu Feng Zhiliang Hu Hongxia Wei Yanni Xiao Changjun Bao Jianli Hu Liguo Zhu Yong Li Xufeng Chen Yi Yin Weiming Wang Yongli Cai Zhihang Peng Hongbing shen Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geriatrics Deparmnent of GerlatricsThe Frst Aflired Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityNarnjing 211166China School of Public Health Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anShaanxi 710061China Deporiment of Medical Engineering and Technology Xinjiang Medical UniversityUrumqi 830011China JC School of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong Kong999077Hong KongChina Division of Infectious Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University Nanjing 211166China The Second Hospital of Nanjing Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineNanjing 210003China Institute for Prevention and Control of Acute Infectious Diseases Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionNanjing 210009China Department of Cardiology the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityNanjingChina School of Mathematics Science Huaiyin Normal UniversityHuaian 223300China

The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease(COVID-19)is a great assault to public health.Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons,such as isolation.This study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation(TG)and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19,and compare the ftting effects of TG and serial interval(S)based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 provinces.These data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted well.The mean of TG was 5.2 days(95%C:4.6-5.8).The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days(95%CI:1.5-3.2).The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed well.Eight provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to 3.14.Measures should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.

关键词： COVID-19 Interval Transmission generation Presymptomatic transmission Reproduction number

“大金砖”与“全球南方”:合作、治理与变革

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俄罗斯东欧中亚研究 2024年第3期 1-43,162页

作者：徐飞彪王友明翟崑卢静徐秀军任琳唐志超孙德刚林民旺周志伟李勇慧沈陈中国现代国际关系研究院金砖国家暨G20研究中心中国国际问题研究院发展中国家研究所北京大学国际关系学院北京大学区域与国别研究院外交学院国际关系研究所中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所、国家全球战略智库中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球治理研究室中国社会科学院大学中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所中东发展与治理研究中心复旦大学中东研究中心复旦大学国际问题研究院中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所国际关系研究室中国社会科学院巴西研究中心中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所多边与区域合作研究室中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

2024年10月,“大金砖”首届峰会将在俄罗斯喀山举行。这是金砖合作机制发展中具有世界意义的事件。随着沙特、埃及、阿联酋、伊朗、埃塞俄比亚成为金砖机制正式成员,金砖五国变为金砖十国。金砖机制发展过程中积累的经验以及存在的问题... 详细信息

2024年10月,“大金砖”首届峰会将在俄罗斯喀山举行。这是金砖合作机制发展中具有世界意义的事件。随着沙特、埃及、阿联酋、伊朗、埃塞俄比亚成为金砖机制正式成员,金砖五国变为金砖十国。金砖机制发展过程中积累的经验以及存在的问题,不仅需要在实践中进行总结,也需要在理论上进行探索。尤其是,历史性的扩员不仅使金砖机制更具包容性,也增添了复杂性,金砖机制内部的“求同存异”问题更加凸显。为此,本刊以“‘大金砖’与‘全球南方,:合作、治理与变革”为主题,特约部分专家进行笔谈,以期推动对这一问题的深入探讨。

关键词：金砖五国金砖机制求同存异埃塞俄比亚阿联酋俄罗斯包容性

冻融循环作用下纤维编织网增强混凝土加固梁的受弯性能

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工业建筑 2017年第7期47卷 160-165页

作者：那明望尹世平贾申中国矿业大学江苏省土木工程环境灾变与结构可靠性重点实验室江苏徐州221008 中国矿业大学深部岩土力学与地下工程国家重点实验室江苏徐州221116

采用四点弯曲加载的方式研究冻融循环作用下冻融循环次数、纤维编织网增强混凝土(TRC)黏结剂、TRC型式和弯曲应力水平等因素对TRC加固梁性能的影响。结果表明:冻融次数越多,承载力下降幅度越大,梁越容易发生剪切破坏;用细粒混凝土将预制... 详细信息

采用四点弯曲加载的方式研究冻融循环作用下冻融循环次数、纤维编织网增强混凝土(TRC)黏结剂、TRC型式和弯曲应力水平等因素对TRC加固梁性能的影响。结果表明:冻融次数越多,承载力下降幅度越大,梁越容易发生剪切破坏;用细粒混凝土将预制TRC板粘贴到梁底,在限制裂缝、承载力及挠度变形方面所表现出来的性能与现浇TRC加固很接近,而用结构胶粘结预制TRC板在各方面性能的表现不甚理想;弯曲应力水平越大,试验梁经过冻融循环的极限承载力下降越多,梁的变形越大。冻融循环对TRC加固梁有较大影响,使得梁的破坏模式、极限承载力和挠度有所改变,但在整个试验过程中,TRC对梁的加固保持较好的作用,使梁的裂缝发展得到了较好的控制。

关键词：混凝土梁冻融循环纤维编织网增强混凝土受弯性能承载能力裂缝发展

从《杂病源流犀烛》探析沈金鳌诊治心系疾病学术思想

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中医药临床杂志 2023年第10期35卷 1893-1896页

作者：赵明旺黑龙江中医药大学黑龙江哈尔滨150040

通过对《杂病源流犀烛》中关于心系疾病的文献记载进行分析,浅析清代名医沈金鳌治疗心系疾病的学术思想。在诊法上沈氏重视脉诊,临证时脉症相参,以脉测证。在病因病机以及心系养护方面,重视心、肾之间的联系,强调坎离相济、心肾相交。... 详细信息

通过对《杂病源流犀烛》中关于心系疾病的文献记载进行分析,浅析清代名医沈金鳌治疗心系疾病的学术思想。在诊法上沈氏重视脉诊,临证时脉症相参,以脉测证。在病因病机以及心系养护方面,重视心、肾之间的联系,强调坎离相济、心肾相交。在辨证论治方面沈氏推崇内经、难经,形成了脏腑经络为核心的辨证体系。在养生调摄方面,提倡气功导引,用以治疗和预防心系疾病。此外沈氏亦注重“天人相应”理念,参合运气学说对心系疾病进行阐释。

关键词：《杂病源流犀烛》沈金鳌心系疾病

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有限的医疗资源对传染病传播的影响

应用数学学报 2020年第3期43卷 593-608页

作者：郭淑利沈明望宋新宇信阳师范学院数学与统计学院信阳464000 西安交通大学数学与统计学院西安710049

本文通过构建一类带有分段线性治疗函数的SEIS传染病传播模型研究有限的医疗资源对传染病传播的影响。理论结果表明,如果治疗能力较小,系统则会存在后向分支,且平衡态会出现双稳的情形.这意味着基本再生数小于1不能保证疾病灭绝.控制疾... 详细信息

本文通过构建一类带有分段线性治疗函数的SEIS传染病传播模型研究有限的医疗资源对传染病传播的影响。理论结果表明,如果治疗能力较小,系统则会存在后向分支,且平衡态会出现双稳的情形.这意味着基本再生数小于1不能保证疾病灭绝.控制疾病的更好方法则是提高治疗成效和治疗能力.

关键词： SEIS传染病模型治疗率有限医疗资源双稳平衡点

新型冠状病毒疫情防控中的理论流行病学模型研究进展

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中华预防医学杂志 2021年第10期55卷 1256-1262页

作者：张恒之丁中兴沈明望肖燕妮彭志行沈洪兵南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系 211166 南京医科大学国际联合研究中心 210029 西安交通大学医学部公共卫生学院中澳传染病联合研究中心 710061 西安交通大学数学与统计学院数学与生命科学交叉中心 710049

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发给全球卫生体系带来巨大冲击,也为科学研究带来了机遇与挑战。理论流行病学模型可通过数学手段定量模拟不同情境和干预下的疫情发展动态,研究分析疫情流行趋势,并评估各类防控措施与疫苗策略的效果。理论流... 详细信息

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发给全球卫生体系带来巨大冲击,也为科学研究带来了机遇与挑战。理论流行病学模型可通过数学手段定量模拟不同情境和干预下的疫情发展动态,研究分析疫情流行趋势,并评估各类防控措施与疫苗策略的效果。理论流行病学模型研究为疫情防控提供科学理论依据,在这一年多的疫情防控中发挥了巨大作用。本研究对国内外针对新冠疫情开展的理论流行病学模型研究工作进行综述,总结理论流行病学模型在疫情防控应用方面的研究进展,为理论建模与疫情防控相结合提供参考。

关键词：新型冠状病毒肺炎理论流行病学动力学模型趋势研判分析风险预警