Estimating the time interval between transmission generations and the presymptomatic period by contact tracing surveillance data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China

作     者：Zhongxing Ding Kai Wang Mingwang Shen Kai Wang Shi Zhao Wenyu Song Rui Li Zhongjie Li Liping Wang Ganzhu Feng Zhiliang Hu Hongxia Wei Yanni Xiao Changjun Bao Jianli Hu Liguo Zhu Yong Li Xufeng Chen Yi Yin Weiming Wang Yongli Cai Zhihang Peng Hongbing Shen 

作者机构：Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsSchool of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of GeriatricsDeparmnent of GerlatricsThe Frst Aflired Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityNarnjing 211166China School of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anShaanxi 710061China Deporiment of Medical Engineering and TechnologyXinjiang Medical UniversityUrumqi 830011China JC School of Public Health and Primary CareChinese University of Hong Kong999077Hong KongChina Division of Infectious DiseasesChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166China The Second Hospital of NanjingNanjing University of Chinese MedicineNanjing 210003China Institute for Prevention and Control of Acute Infectious DiseasesJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionNanjing 210009China Department of Cardiologythe First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityNanjingChina School of Mathematics ScienceHuaiyin Normal UniversityHuaian 223300China 

出 版 物：《Fundamental Research》 (自然科学基础研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2021年第1卷第2期

页      面：104-110页

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82041026,81673275,11961071,91846302) the Huai'an Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention(HAP201704) 

主　　题：COVID-19 Interval Transmission generation Presymptomatic transmission Reproduction number 

摘      要：The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease(COVID-19)is a great assault to public *** transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons,such as *** study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation(TG)and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19,and compare the ftting effects of TG and serial interval(S)based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 *** data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted *** mean of TG was 5.2 days(95%C:4.6-5.8).The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days(95%CI:1.5-3.2).The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed *** provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to *** should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.