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Impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza on U.S. meat demand

Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2015年第6期14卷 1130-1141页

作者： Jianhong E Mu bruce A mccarl Amy Hagerman David Bessler Department of Applied Economics Oregon State University Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health Veterinary Services Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service United States Department of Agriculture

This paper examines the U.S. meat demand impacts of the announced outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy（BSE） and avian influenza（AI）. Findings indicate that beef and chicken demand was negatively affected by BSE and AI disease outbreaks. Specifically, in the short run, U.S. consumers shift demand due to both outbreaks but more so due to domestic disease outbreaks than for outbreaks occurring overseas-the impact of U.S. AI outbreaks is about 0.5% for beef and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is around –0.42% for beef and 0.4% for pork, respectively. Regarding the BSE shock on meat demand, there is a high rate of beef demand adjusted from disturbance to the long-run equilibrium and a lower adjustment rate for chicken demand because of the repeated outbreaks of AI worldwide. In the long run, information related to severe, persistently recurring overseas animal disease outbreaks changes U.S. consumers＇ meat consumption patterns. Although effects of animal diseases on U.S. meat demand were statistically significant, the magnitudes were small-the impact of WHO reported human death numbers for AI is 0.005% for beef, –0.002% for pork, and –0.006% for chicken and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is 1.1% for pork and –0.7% for chicken.

关键词： spongiform avian chicken bovine encephalopathy overseas disturbance adjustment pathogenic deaths

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Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2014年第4期13卷 666-676页

作者： ZHANG Yu-quan CAI Yong-xia Beach Robert H mccarl bruce a Agricultural Resource & Energy Economics and Policy ProgramRTI InternationalResearch Triangle Park Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station

Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.

关键词： climate change relative competitiveness trade agricultural sector model (ASM)

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Operating pesticide use reduction within the boundary of food security in peri-urban settings

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Fundamental Research 2022年第4期2卷 635-647页

作者： Yuquan W.Zhang bruce A.mccarl Zhengwei Cao Qiang Li Shaohua Yang Huiwen Liu China-UK Low Carbon College Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityNo.3 Yinlian RoadPudong New AreaShanghai 201306China Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University2124 TAMUCollege StationTexas 77843USA School of Agriulureand Biology Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversiyNo.800 Dongchuan RoodMinhang District Shanghai 200240China

Pesticide use in peri-urban areas afects the urban enviroment and public health,and reducing the use may present food security isues for urban *** this study,we explore how a muiallyadopted goal of a 20%reduetion in pesticide use could be achieved,along with local food security and environmental implica-tions,for Shanghai located in the densely populated East China.A regional Shanghai Agricultural Sector Model inorporating district-and technology-varying crop budgets,was developed to simulate the efects of pesticide reduction *** we find that achieving the reduction goal had the largest implications in districts with high pesticide use totals and intensities,potentially reducing pesticide non point source pollution in the Yangtze River Estuary and Dianshan Lake;the production levels of rice and leafy vegetables would be most afected;and adopting machinery that allows more precise pesticide application modulates these ***,imposing the requlrements at the district-level caused more severe local food security concerns,and less environmental ***,a closed Shanghai's agricultural economy would subtantally enlarge the regional het-erogeneity in the above-mentioaned *** the ffects of a quantity control policy on current-use pesticides at diferent aggregation levels has important implications for regulating the use of agrochemicals.

关键词： Pesticide use reduction Shanghai Agricultural Sector Model(SH-ASM) Peri-urban agriculture Crop budget Cropmix

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