Impacts of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and avian influenza on U.S. meat demand

作     者：Jianhong E Mu Bruce A McCarl Amy Hagerman David Bessler 

作者机构：Department of Applied Economics Oregon State University Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health Veterinary Services Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service United States Department of Agriculture 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第14卷第6期

页      面：1130-1141页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 09[农学] 0710[理学-生物学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 120301[管理学-农业经济管理] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1203[管理学-农林经济管理] 090602[农学-预防兽医学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 0906[农学-兽医学] 0901[农学-作物学] 0703[理学-化学] 0902[农学-园艺学] 0713[理学-生态学] 

主　　题：spongiform avian chicken bovine encephalopathy overseas disturbance adjustment pathogenic deaths 

摘      要：This paper examines the U.S. meat demand impacts of the announced outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy（BSE） and avian influenza（AI）. Findings indicate that beef and chicken demand was negatively affected by BSE and AI disease outbreaks. Specifically, in the short run, U.S. consumers shift demand due to both outbreaks but more so due to domestic disease outbreaks than for outbreaks occurring overseas-the impact of U.S. AI outbreaks is about 0.5% for beef and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is around –0.42% for beef and 0.4% for pork, respectively. Regarding the BSE shock on meat demand, there is a high rate of beef demand adjusted from disturbance to the long-run equilibrium and a lower adjustment rate for chicken demand because of the repeated outbreaks of AI worldwide. In the long run, information related to severe, persistently recurring overseas animal disease outbreaks changes U.S. consumers＇ meat consumption patterns. Although effects of animal diseases on U.S. meat demand were statistically significant, the magnitudes were small-the impact of WHO reported human death numbers for AI is 0.005% for beef, –0.002% for pork, and –0.006% for chicken and the impact of U.S. BSE cases is 1.1% for pork and –0.7% for chicken.