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Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wild-fire management

Forest Ecosystems 2015年第2期2卷 57-66页

作者： David E Calkin matthew p thompson Mark A Finney Forestry Sciences Laboratory US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

Over the last two decades wildfire activity, damage, and management cost within the US have increased substantially. These increases have been associated with a number of factors including climate change and fuel accumulation due to a century of active fire suppression. The increased fire activity has occurred during a time of significant ex-urban development of the Wildland Urban Interface （WUI） along with increased demand on water resources originating on forested landscapes. These increased demands have put substantial pressure on federal agencies charged with wildfire management to continue and expand the century old policy of aggressive wildfire suppression. However, aggressive wildfire suppression is one of the major factors that drive the increased extent, intensity, and damage associated with the small number of large wildfires that are unable to be suppressed. In this paper we discuss the positive feedback loops that lead to demands for increasing suppression response while simultaneously increasing wildfire risk in the future. Despite a wealth of scientific research that demonstrates the limitations of the current management paradigm pressure to maintain the existing system are well entrenched and driven by the existing social systems that have evolved under our current management practice. Interestingly, US federal wildland fire policy provides considerable discretion for managers to pursue a range of management objectives however, societal expectations and existing management incentive structures result in policy implementation that is straining the resilience of fire adapted ecosystems and the communities that reside in and adjacent to them.

关键词： Wildfire suppression Wildfire paradox Wildland urban interface Resilience

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Novel recursive inference algorithm for discrete dynamic Bayesian networks

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progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2009年第9期19卷 1147-1151页

作者： Chris p. thompson School of Engineering Cranfield University

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) can effectively perform modeling and qualitative reasoning for many dynamic systems. However, most of its inference algorithms involve complicated graphical transformations that are hard to program and time-consuming to compute. This article proposes a new recursive inference algorithm, which is a purely numerical method derived from probability theory and the characteristics of Bayesian networks to do both on-line and off-line inferences in discrete DBNs. The most prominent advantages of this novel approach include: (1) it is an exact inference algorithm, thus its accuracy and stability can be guaranteed, (2) it avoids the complex graphical transformation so as to remarkably improve the inference speed, and (3) its concise recursive formulae facilitate programming of both forwards and backwards pass. All of these issues are verified by accurate mathematical derivation as well as a couple of application examples with comparison between the new algorithm and the two most prevailing inference approaches of discrete DBNs - the interface algorithm and the forwards-backwards algorithm.

关键词： Discrete DBNs Inference Algorithm

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Leveraging Learning to Improve Disaster Management Outcomes

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2012年第4期3卷 195-206页

作者： Denise D.p.thompson Department of public Management John Jay College of Criminal JusticeCity University of New YorkNY 10019U.S.A.

Disaster management agencies should be exemplars of learning given the volatility of their operating environment. However, there are cognitive, social, and organizational barriers that prevent these organizations from learning. The purpose of this article is to use the Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency(CDEMA) as an example of an organization that achieves double-loop learning in spite of known barriers. This research shows significant learning variations in the CDEMA organization from the regional to the national level. The results demonstrate that the CDEMA Coordinating Unit and a few national member agencies achieve double-loop learning, while the opposite is true for many national disaster offices. Analysis of this variation is one contribution to the disaster management and organizational learning literature. The article also suggests that organizational culture is an important precursor to learning and adds a much needed case example to the management and learning literature. The study ends with a proposal for future research in the area of disaster management, culture and learning, and propositions for national disaster offices to consider in order to enhance double-loop learning.

关键词： disaster culture aging

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Freeform spectrometer enabling increased compactness

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Light(Science & Applications) 2017年第1期6卷 646-655页

作者： Jacob Reimers Aaron Bauer Kevin p thompson Jannick p Rolland The Institute of Optics University of RochesterRochesterNY 14627USA Synopsys Inc.3 Graywood LanePittsfordNY 14534USA

We present optical designs with freeform optics in the context of hyperspectral *** show designs that are 5×more compact in volume than similar designs using conventional spherical or aspherical *** will show how combining the concepts of spatial and spectral-band broadening,which will be introduced in this paper,led to the improvement in compactness that is uniquely enabled by freeform optics.

关键词： aberrations freeform optics imaging spectrometer

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Cell culture isolation can miss the laboratory diagnosis of HSV ocular infection

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2010年第2期3卷 164-167页

作者： Regis p Kowalski paul p thompson Tara H Cronin The Charles T.Campbell Ophthalmic Microbiology Laboratory UPMC Eye CenterOphthalmology and Visual Sciences Research Centerthe Eye and Ear InstituteDepartment of OphthalmologyUniversity of Pittsburgh School of MedicinePittsburghPennsylvaniaUSA

AIMWe compared polymerase chain reaction (pCR) to cell culture isolation for the laboratory diagnosis of ocular herpes simplex virus (HSV) disease.

关键词： herpes simplex virus polymerase chain reaction cell culture isolation HSV keratitis

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What is the ideal approach for emergent pericardiocentesis using point-of-care ultrasound guidance?

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World Journal of Emergency Medicine 2021年第3期12卷 169-173页

作者： Lori Stolz Elaine Situ-LaCasse Josie Acuña matthew thompson Nicolaus Hawbaker Josephine Valenzuela Uwe Stolz Srikar Adhikari Department of Emergency Medicine the University of CincinnatiCincinnati 45267USA Department of Emergency Medicine Banner University Medical Center-TucsonTucson 85719USA Baptist Medical Center Jacksonville Jacksonville 32207USA Flagstaff Medical Center Flagstaff 86001USA Northwest Medical Center Tucson 85741USA Department of Emergency Medicine the University of ArizonaTucson 85724USA

BACKGROUND:Traditionally performed using a subxiphoid approach,the increasing use of point-of-care ultrasound in the emergency department has made other approaches(parasternal and apical)for pericardiocentesis *** aim of this study is to identify the ideal approach for emergency-physician-performed ultrasound-guided pericardiocentesis as determined by ultrasound image quality,distance from surface to pericardial fl uid,and likely obstructions or ***:A retrospective review of point-of-care cardiac ultrasound examinations was performed in two urban academic emergency departments for the presence of pericardial eff *** images were reviewed for technical quality,distance of eff usion from skin surface,and predicted ***:A total of 166 pericardial effusions were identified during the study *** mean skin-to-pericardial fl uid distance was 5.6 cm(95%confi dence interval[95%CI]5.2-6.0 cm)for the subxiphoid views,which was signifi cantly greater than that for the parasternal(2.7 cm[95%CI 2.5-2.8 cm],ppical(2.5 cm[95%CI 2.3-2.7 cm],pphoid view had the highest predicted complication rate at 79.7%(95%CI 71.5%-86.4%),which was signifi cantly greater than the apical(31.9%;95%CI 21.4%-44.0%,pparasternal(20.2%;95%CI 12.8%-29.5%,pplication rates with pericardiocentesis will be lower via the parasternal or apical approach compared to the subxiphoid *** distance from skin to fl uid collection is the least in both of these views.

关键词： pericardiocentesis pericardial effusion point-of-care ultrasound Emergency department Subxiphoid parasternal Apical

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process structuring of polymers by solid phase orientation processing

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Science China Chemistry 2013年第8期56卷 1017-1028页

作者： COATES p.D. CATON-ROSE p. WARD I.M. thompson G. polymer Interdisciplinary Research Centre University of Bradford University of Leeds

Solid phase orientation of polymers is one of the most successful routes to enhancement of polymer *** unlocks the potential of molecular orientation for the achievement of a range of enhanced physical *** provide here an overview of techniques developed in our laboratories for structuring polymers by solid phase orientation processing routes,with a particular focus on die drawing,which have allowed control of significant enhancements of a single property or combinations of properties,including Young's modulus,strength,and *** have led to notable commercial exploitations,and examples of load bearing low density materials and shape memory materials are discussed.

关键词： polymer orientation drawing strain solid

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Evaluation of the new Oxyplate^(TM) Anaerobic System for the isolation of ocular anaerobic bacteria

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2012年第5期5卷 582-585页

作者： Emily K. Deschler paul p. thompson Regis paul Kowalski Department of Ophthalmology University of Pittsburgh 203 Lothrop Street Ophthalmic Microbiology The Eye & Ear InstitutePittsburgh Pennsylvania 15213 United States

AIM: Anaerobic bacteria can cause ocular infections. We tested the OxyplateTM Anaerobic System (OXY) to isolate pertinent anaerobic bacteria that can cause ocular ***: OXY, which does not require direct anaerobic conditions (i.e. bags, jars), was compared to conventional isolation of incubating culture media in anaerobic bags. Standard colonies counts were performed on anaerobic ocular bacterial isolates under aerobic and anaerobic conditions (anaerobic bags) using agar media: 1) OXY (aerobic only), 2) 5% sheep blood (SB), 3) Chocolate, and 4) Schaedler. The bacteria tested were de-identified ocular isolates cultured from endophthalmitis and dacryocystitis that include 10 propionibacterium acnes and 3 Actinomyces species. The colony counts for each bacteria isolate, on each culturing condition, were ranked from largest to smallest, and non-parametrically compared to determine the best culturing ***: All anaerobic conditions were positive for all of the anaerobic isolates. SB and Schaedler’s agar under aerobic conditions did not support the growth of anaerobic bacteria. Sparse growth was noted on chocolate agar with propionibacterium acnes . As an anaerobic system, SB in an anaerobic bag isolated higher colony counts than OXY (p=0.0028) and chocolate agar (p=0.0028).CONCLUSION: Although OXY did not test to be more efficient than other anaerobic systems, it appears to be a reasonable alternative for isolating anaerobic bacteria from ocular sites. The use of an agar medium in a specially designed plate, without the requirement of an anaerobic bag, rendered OXY as an advantage over other anaerobic systems.

关键词： anaerobic bacteria bacterial isolation endophthalmitis dacryocystitis

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Endoscopic ultrasound-guided celiac plexus neurolysis using a reverse phase polymer

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2010年第6期16卷 728-731页

作者： Keith L Obstein Fernanda p Martins Gloria Fernández-Esparrach Christopher C thompson Gastroenterology Division Brigham and Women's Hospital Federal University of So paulo Department of Gastroenterology Endoscopy UnitHospital Clinic(Spain)

AIM:To assess the feasibility of endoscopic ultrasound(EUS)guided celiac plexus neurolysis(CpN) using a poloxamer. METHODS:In this prospective evaluation,six Yorkshire pigs underwent EUS-guided *** received an injection of 10 mL of 0.25%Lidocaine plus methylene blue(group 1) and three received an injection of 10 mL of 0.25%Lidocaine plus blue colored poloxamer(pS137-25)(group 2) .Necropsy was performed immediately after the animals were *** abdominal and pelvic cavities were examined for the presence of methylene blue and the blue colored ***:EUS-guided CpN was successfully performed in all 6 pigs without immediate *** blue was identified throughout the peritoneal and retroperitoneal cavity in group *** blue colored poloxamer was found in the retroperitoneal cavity immediately adjacent to the aorta,in the exact location of the celiac plexus in group ***:EUS-guided CpN using a reverse phase polymer in a non-survival porcine model was technically *** presence of a poloxamer gel at the site of the celiac plexus at necropsy indicates a precise delivery of the neurolytic agent.

关键词： Celiac plexus neurolysis Celiac plexus blockade Endoscopic ultrasound polymer

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Impaired CTLA-4 responses in COpD are associated with systemic inflammation

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Cellular & Molecular Immunology 2014年第6期11卷 606-608页

作者： Dino BA Tan Sonia Fernandez patriciaprice Martyn A French philip J thompson Yuben p Moodley Centre for Asthma Allergy and Respiratory Research Lung Institute of Western Australia Nedlands Australia School of Medicine and pharmacology Nedlands Australia School of pathology and Laboratory Medicine University of Western Australia Nedlands Australia Department of Clinical Immunology Perth Australia Department of Respiratory and Sleep Medicine Royal Perth Hospital Perth Australia

Systemic inflammation is a feature of chronic obstructive pulmo- nary disease （COpD）. Defects in T cell-mediated anti-inflamma- tory pathways such as cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4 （CTLA- 4） may promote damaging inflammation. This study provides novel data implicating the impaired induction of an anti-inflam- matory molecule, CTLA-4 in the elevated inflammation observed in COpD patients. Low induction of CTLA-4 in COpD patients paralleled increased markers of systemic inflammation ex vivo and increased T-cell responses to a bacterial superantigen, staphylo- coccal enterotoxin-B （SEB） in vitro. This mechanism may explain the increased inflammation in COpD patients.

关键词： Impaired responses associated

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