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Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5℃to 2.0℃global warming levels

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Science Bulletin 2018年第4期63卷 228-234页

作者： wei Li Zhihong Jiang Xuebin Zhang laurent Li Ying Sun Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change CanadaTorontoOntario M3H 5T4Canada Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitesUPMC Universite Paris 06ParisFrance National Climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeifing 100812China

To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 ℃ and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 ℃ to 2 ℃ . Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events(longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming levels, *** projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.

关键词： 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warmingExtreme precipitationChina

Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Autumn Drought Trend over China from 1961 to 2014

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 251-260页

作者： Xuyu ZHANG Jinhua YU laurent ZXLI wei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France

Understanding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought is of great significance to the prevention of its adverse *** drought indices,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),are used here for the detection and attribution of autumn droughts in China,and for the exploration of the role played by the anthropogenic climate *** is only related to precipitation,but SPEI involves both precipitation and potential *** their trend’s spatial patterns,the historical simulations(including all forcings,noted as ALL)from 11 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,as an ensemble,are able to reproduce their observational *** shows wetting trend in the north of 35°N and drying trend in the *** shows drying trend in almost whole *** drying trend in historical simulations ALL is significantly stronger,compared with the counterpart from the accompanying simulations(called NAT)with only natural forcings *** result clearly indicates that anthropogenic climate change plays a dominant role in the enhancement of autumn drought in China.A more rigorous detection work is also performed with the signal’s fingerprint of ALL(and NAT)projected onto the observation and assessed with the background noise from no external-forcing control *** trend pattern signal in ALL is significantly detected in observation for both SPI and SPEI,with a more pronounced signal in SPEI than in SPI,while the signal of NAT is not detected for neither SPI nor ***,extreme droughts(with indices beyond-2)are assessed in terms of probability ratio between ALL and *** is shown that the anthropogenic precipitation change plays a leading role in the south of 35°N,while the anthropogenic temperature change leads in the north.

关键词： drought anthropogenic effect detection and attribution standardized precipitation index(SPI)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2018年第2期9卷 120-129页

作者： SHI Chen JIANG Zhi-Hong CHEN wei-Lin laurent LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Laboratoire de Mbteorologie Dynamique CNRS Sorbonne Universites UPMC Universite Paris 06 Paris 75005 France

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

关键词： 1.5 ℃ global warming 2 ℃ global warming Temperature extremes CMIP5 China

Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over Northeastern China with CMIP6 Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 37-48页

作者： wei LI Zhihong JIANG laurent ZXLI Jing-Jia LUO Panmao ZHAI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory of Severe Weather Fujian Institute of Meteorological SciencesFuzhou 350001China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75252France State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable *** study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe *** of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern China during the past *** trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing *** attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of ***,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed *** a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming.

关键词： compound hot and dry event(CHDE) detection and attribution northeastern China future projection

Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第10期37卷 1119-1132页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG Juan LI wei LI Cenxiao SUN and laurent LI Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual *** CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum ***,CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the Tibetan *** performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature *** to CMIP5,CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over *** is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry *** arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CMIP5-MME)to 79%(CMIP6-MME).The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME,are largely reduced in *** ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry *** biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME,but smaller,compared to CMIP5-MME.

关键词： CMIP6 CMIP5 intercomparison climate extremes

Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第9期66卷 2125-2141页

作者： Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG laurent LI wei LI Sheng JIANG Panyu ZHOU weihao ZHAO Tong LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75005France School of Mathematics and Statistics Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future *** based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the ***,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model ***,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median *** they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future *** uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among *** on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,*** of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and *** projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃*** largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range

关键词： Multi-model ensemble simulation Ensemble-processing strategy Global warming targets Climate projection uncertainty assessment Regional climate change in China

Genomic consequences of population decline in critically endangered pangolins and their demographic histories

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National Science Review 2020年第4期7卷 798-814页

作者： Jing-Yang Hu Zi-Qian Hao laurent Frantz Shi-Fang Wu Wu Chen Yun-Fang Jiang Hong Wu wei-Min Kuang Haipeng Li Ya-Ping Zhang Li Yu State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Bio-Resource in Yunnan School of Life Sciences Yunnan University State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution Kunming Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming College of Life Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Key Laboratory of Computational Biology CAS-MPG Partner Institute for Computational Biology Shanghai Institute of Nutrition and Health Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Biological and Chemical Sciences Queen Mary University of London The Palaeogenomics and Bio-Archaeology Research Network Department of Archaeology University of Oxford Guangzhou Zoo Lushui Management and Conservation Branch of Gaoligong Mountain National Nature Reserve Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Pangolins are among the most critically endangered animals due to heavy poaching and worldwide trafficking. However, their demographic histories and the genomic consequences of their recent population declines remain unknown. We generated high-quality de novo reference genomes for critically endangered Malayan(Manis javanica, MJ) and Chinese(M. pentadactyla, MP) pangolins and re-sequencing population genomic data from 74 MJs and 23 MPs. We recovered the population identities of illegally traded pangolins and previously unrecognized genetic populations that should be protected as evolutionarily distinct conservation units. Demographic reconstruction suggested environmental changes have resulted in a population size fluctuation of pangolins. Additionally, recent population size declines due to human activities have resulted in an increase in inbreeding and genetic load. Deleterious mutations were enriched in genes related to cancer/diseases and cholesterol homeostasis, which may have increased their susceptibility to diseases and decreased their survival potential to adapt to environmental changes and high-cholesterol diets. This comprehensive study provides not only high-quality pangolin reference genomes, but also valuable information concerning the driving factors of long-term population size fluctuations and the genomic impact of recent population size declines due to human activities, which is essential for pangolin conservation management and global action planning.

关键词： pangolins population genomics population declines genetic diversity inbreeding genetic load demographic history

Uranium(Ⅲ)–Phosphorus(Ⅲ) Synergistic Activation of White Phosphorus and Arsenic

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CCS Chemistry 2022年第8期4卷 2630-2638页

作者： wei Fang Iskander Douair Adrian Hauser Kai Li Yue Zhao Peter WRoesky Shuao Wang laurent Maron Congqing Zhu State Key Laboratory of Coordination Chemistry Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Advanced Organic MaterialsSchool of Chemistry and Chemical EngineeringNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 LPCNO CNRS&INSAUniversitéPaul SabatierToulouse 31077 Institute of Inorganic Chemistry Karlsruhe Institute of Technology(KIT)Karlsruhe 76131 State Key Laboratory of Radiation Medicine and Protection School for Radiological and Interdisciplinary Sciences(RAD-X)Collaborative Innovation Center of Radiation Medicine of Jiangsu Higher Education InstitutionsSoochow UniversitySuzhou 215123

The study of small-molecule activation by f-block elements still lags far behind that of transition *** a few uranium complexes have been reported to activate dinitrogen,reports on the activation of heavier congeners,such as white phosphorus(P_(4)),by uranium species are extremely rare,and no example of uranium-mediated activation of elemental arsenic has appeared.

关键词： uranium As0 nanoparticle white phosphorus small molecule activation U(Ⅲ)–P(Ⅲ)synergy density functional theory calculations

FPGA Prototype design of Bio-logging based on multi-sensors

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FPGA Prototype design of Bio-logging based on multi-sensors