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Applications of time series analysis in epidemiology: Literature review and our experience during COVID-19 pandemic

World Journal of Clinical Cases 2023年第29期11卷 6974-6983页

作者： latchezar tomov Lyubomir Chervenkov Dimitrina Georgieva Miteva Hristiana Batselova TsvetelinaVelikova Department of Informatics New Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria Department of Diagnostic Imaging Medical University PlovdivPlovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Genetics Faculty of BiologySofia University"St.Kliment Ohridski"Sofia 1164Bulgaria Department of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine Medical UniversityUniversity Hospital"St George"Plovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Medical Faculty Sofia UniversitySt.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria

Time series analysis is a valuable tool in epidemiology that complements the classical epidemiological models in two different ways:Prediction and *** is related to explaining past and current data based on various internal and external influences that may or may not have a causative *** is an exploration of the possible future values based on the predictive ability of the model and hypothesized future values of the external and/or internal *** time series analysis approach has the advantage of being easier to use(in the cases of more straightforward and linear models such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average).Still,it is limited in forecasting time,unlike the classical models such as *** applicability in forecasting comes from its better accuracy for short-term *** its basic form,it does not assume much theoretical knowledge of the mechanisms of spreading and mutating pathogens or the reaction of people and regulatory structures(governments,companies,etc.).Instead,it estimates from the data *** predictive ability allows testing hypotheses for different factors that positively or negatively contribute to the pandemic spread;be it school closures,emerging variants,*** can be used in mortality or hospital risk estimation from new cases,seroprevalence studies,assessing properties of emerging variants,and estimating excess mortality and its relationship with a pandemic.

关键词： Time series analysis Epidemiology COVID-19 Pandemic Auto-regressive integrated moving average Excess mortality Seroprevalence

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Role of children in the Bulgarian COVID-19 epidemic:A mathematical model study

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World Journal of Experimental Medicine 2023年第3期13卷 28-46页

作者： latchezar tomov Hristiana Batselova Snezhina Lazova Borislav Ganev Iren Tzocheva Tsvetelina Velikova Department of Informatics New Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria Department of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine Medical UniversityUniversity Hospital"St George"Plovdiv 6000Bulgaria Department of Pediatric University Hospital"N.I.Pirogov"Sofia 1606Bulgaria Department of Healthcare Faculty of Public HealthMedical University of SofiaSofia 1527Bulgaria Department of Pediatric Medical FacultyUniversity Hospital"N.I.Pirogov"Sofia 1606Bulgaria Medical Faculty Sofia UniversitySt.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic affects all aspects of our lives,including *** the advancement of the pandemic,children under five years old are at increased risk of hospitalization relative to other age *** makes it paramount that we develop tools to address the two critical aspects of preserving children's health–new treatment protocols and new predictive *** those purposes,we need to understand better the effects of COVID-19 on children,and we need to be able to predict the number of affected children as a proportion of the number of infected *** is why our research focuses on clinical and epidemiological pictures of children with heart damage post-COVID,as a part of the general picture of post-COVID among this age *** To demonstrate the role of children in the COVID-19 spread in Bulgaria and to test the hypothesis that there are no secondary transmissions in schools and from children to *** Our modeling and data show with high probability that in Bulgaria,with our current measures,vaccination strategy and contact structure,the pandemic is driven by the children and their contacts in *** This makes it paramount that we develop tools to address the two critical aspects of preserving children's health–new treatment protocols and new predictive *** those purposes,we need to understand better the effects of COVID-19 on children,and we need to be able to predict the number of affected children as a proportion of the number of infected *** is why our research focuses on clinical and epidemiological pictures of children with heart damage post-COVID,as a part of the general picture of post-Covid among this age *** Our modeling rejects that hypothesis,and the epidemiological data supports *** used epidemiological data to support the validity of our *** first summer wave in 2020 from the listed here school proms endorse the idea of transmissio

关键词： COVID-19 Pandemic Children Cardiac involvement Multisystem inflammation in children ARIMA Time-series modeling Regression model

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Pandemic control-do's and don'ts from a control theory perspective

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World Journal of Methodology 2022年第5期12卷 392-401页

作者： latchezar tomov Dimitrina Miteva Metodija Sekulovski Hristiana Batselova Tsvetelina Velikova Department of Informatics New Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria Department of Genetics Sofia University"St.Kliment Ohridski"Sofia 1164Bulgaria Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive care University Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Medical Faculty Sofia University St.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine Medical UniversityPlovdivUniversity Hospital"St George"Plovdiv 6000Bulgaria Department of Clinical Immunology University Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria

Managing a pandemic is a difficult *** are part of the dynamics of nonlinear systems with multiple different interactive features that co-adapt to each other(such as humans,animals,and pathogens).The target of controlling such a nonlinear system is best achieved using the control system theory developed in engineering and applied in systems *** is this theory and its principles actually used in controlling the current coronavirus disease-19 pandemic?We review the evidence for applying principles in different aspects of pandemic control related to different goals such as disease eradication,disease containment,and short-or long-term economic loss *** policies implement multiple measures in concordance with control theory to achieve a robust *** contrast,unsuccessful policies have numerous failures in different measures or focus only on a single measure(only testing,vaccines,etc.).Successful approaches rely on predictions instead of reactions to compensate for the costs of time delay,on knowledge-based analysis instead of trial-and-error,to control complex nonlinear systems,and on risk assessment instead of waiting for more *** is an example of the effects of delayed response due to waiting for evidence to arrive instead of a proper risk analytical *** Zealand,Australia,and China are examples of appropriate application of basic control theoretic principles and focusing on long-term adaptive strategies,updating measures with the evolution of the pandemic.

关键词： COVID-19 pandemic Control Control theory COVID zero Flattening the curve

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Islet transplantation-immunological challenges and current perspectives

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World Journal of Transplantation 2023年第4期13卷 107-121页

作者： Plamena Kabakchieva Yavor Assyov Stavros Gerasoudis Georgi Vasilev Monika Peshevska-Sekulovska Metodija Sekulovski Snezhina Lazova Dimitrina Georgieva Miteva Milena Gulinac latchezar tomov Tsvetelina Velikova Clinic of Internal Diseases Naval Hospital-VarnaMilitary Medical AcademyVarna 9010Bulgaria Clinic of Endocrinology Department of Internal DiseasesUniversity Hospital"Alexandrovska"Medical University-SofiaSofia 1434Bulgaria Faculty of Medicine Trakia UniversityStara Zagora 6000Bulgaria Department of Neurology Faculty of MedicineMedical University of PlovdivPlovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Gastroenterology University Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Medical Faculty Sofia University St.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care University hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Pediatric University Hospital"N.I.Pirogov"Sofia 1606Bulgaria Department of Healthcare Faculty of Public Health"Prof.Tsekomir VodenicharovMDDSc"Medical University of SofiaSofia 1527Bulgaria Department of Genetics Sofia University"St.Kliment Ohridski"Sofia 1164Bulgaria Department of General and Clinical Pathology Medical University of PlovdivPlovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Informatics New Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria

Pancreatic islet transplantation is a minimally invasive procedure aiming to reverse the effects of insulin deficiency in patients with type 1 diabetes(T1D)by transplanting pancreatic beta ***,pancreatic islet transplantation has improved to a great extent,and cellular replacement will likely become the mainstay *** review pancreatic islet transplantation as a treatment for T1D and the immunological challenges *** data demonstrated that the time for islet cell transfusion varied between 2 and 10 *** 54%of the patients gained insulin independence at the end of the first year,while only 20%remained insulin-free at the end of the second ***,most transplanted patients return to using some form of exogenous insulin within a few years after the transplantation,which imposed the need to improve immunological factors before *** also discuss the immunosuppressive regimens,apoptotic donor lymphocytes,anti-TIM-1 antibodies,mixed chimerism-based tolerance induction,induction of antigen-specific tolerance utilizing ethylene carbodiimide-fixed splenocytes,pretransplant infusions of donor apoptotic cells,B cell depletion,preconditioning of isolated islets,inducing local immunotolerance,cell encapsulation and immunoisolation,using of biomaterials,immunomodulatory cells,etc.

关键词： Islet transplantation Type 1 diabetes Diabetes mellitus Immune tolerance Graft rejection T regulatory cells B regulatory cells

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Long-term effectiveness,outcomes and complications of bariatric surgery

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2023年第19期11卷 4504-4512页

作者： Milena Gulinac Dimitrina Georgieva Miteva Monika Peshevska-Sekulovska Ivan P Novakov Svetozar Antovic Milena Peruhova Violeta Snegarova Plamena Kabakchieva Yavor Assyov Georgi Vasilev Metodija Sekulovski Snezhina Lazova latchezar tomov Tsvetelina Velikova Department of General and Clinical Pathology Medical University of PlovdivPlovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Genetics Sofia University"St.Kliment Ohridski"Faculty of BiologySofia 1164Bulgaria Department of Gastroenterology University Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Thoraco-abdominal Surgery Medical University PlovdivPlovdiv 6000Bulgaria University Clinic for Digestive Surgery Medical FacultySkopjeSkopje 1000North Macedonia Department of Gastroenterology Heart and Brain HospitalBurgasBurgas 1000Bulgaria Clinic of Internal Diseases Naval Hospital-VarnaMilitary Medical AcademyMedical FacultyMedical UniversityVarna 9000Bulgaria Clinic of Internal Diseases Naval Hospital-VarnaMilitary Medical AcademyVarna 9010Bulgaria Clinic of Endocrinology University Hospital AlexandrovskaSofia 1431Bulgaria Department of Internal Diseases Medical University–SofiaSofia 1431Bulgaria Clinic of Endocrinology and Metabolic Disorders UMHAT"Sv.Georgi"Plovdiv 4000Bulgaria Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care University Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Medical Faculty Sofia UniversitySt.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Pediatric University Hospital"N.I.Pirogov"Sofia 1606Bulgaria Department of Healthcare Faculty of Public Health"Prof.Tsekomir VodenicharovMDDSc"Sofia 1527Bulgaria Department of Informatics New Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria Medical Faculty Sofia University St.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria

Dietary imbalance and overeating can lead to an increasingly widespread *** considerations aside,obesity is defined as an excess of adipose tissue that can lead to serious health problems and can predispose to a number of pathological changes and clinical diseases,including diabetes;hypertension;atherosclerosis;coronary artery disease and stroke;obstructive sleep apnea;depression;weight-related arthropathies and endometrial and breast cancer.A body weight 20%above ideal for age,gender and height is a severe health *** surgery is a set of surgical methods to treat morbid obesity when other treatments such as diet,increased physical activity,behavioral changes and drugs have *** two most common procedures currently used are sleeve gastrectomy and gastric *** procedure has gained popularity recently and is generally considered safe and *** current data show that perioperative mortality is low and better control of comorbidities and short-term complications is achieved,more randomized trials are needed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of bariatric *** review aims to synthesize and summarize the growing evidence on the long-term effectiveness,outcomes and complications of bariatric surgery.

关键词： Bariatric surgery Long-term outcomes Obesity Roux-en-Y gastric bypass sleeve gastrectomy Effectiveness Safety Quality of life

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LIGHT-INDUCED FLUORESCENCE SPECTROSCOPY AND OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY OF BASAL CELL CARCINOMA

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Journal of Innovative Optical Health Sciences 2009年第3期2卷 261-268页

作者： EKATERINA BORISOVA ELFRIDA CARSTEA LUMINITA CRISTESCU ELMIRA PAVLOVA NIKOLAY HADJIOLOV PETRANKA TROYANOVA latchezar AVRAMOV Institute of Electronics Bulgarian Academy of Sciences 72Tsarigradsko Chaussee Blvd.1784 SofiaBulgaria National Institute for Optoelectronics Atomistilor 409077125 MagureleRomania National Oncological Center 6Plovdivsko Pole Str.1156 SofiaBulgaria

Many up-to-date optical techniques have been developed and applied recently in clinical practice for obtaining qualitatively and quantitatively new data from the investigated *** to their high sensitivity in detection of small changes,these techniques are widely used for detection of early changes in biological ***-induced fluorescence spectroscopy(LIFS)is one of the most promising techniques for early detection of cutaneous *** number of recent publications have suggested that optical coherence tomography(OCT)also has potential for non-invasive diagnosis of skin *** recent work is a part of clinical trial procedure for introduction of LIFS technique into the common medical practice in National Oncological Medical Center in Bulgaria for diagnosis of non-melanoma skin *** focus our attention here on basal cell carcinoma lesions and their specific features revealed by LIFS and OCT *** this paper we prove the efficiency of using the combined LIFS-OCT method in skin lesions studies by integrating the complimentary qualities of each particular *** LIFS measurements several excitation sources,each emitting at 365,385 and 405 nm maxima are *** associated microspectrometer detects in vivo the fluorescence signals from human *** main spectral features of the lesions and normal skin are discussed and their possible origins are *** images are used to evaluate the lesion thickness,structure and severity stage,when *** obtained results could be used to develop a more complete picture of optical properties of these widely spread skin *** the same time,our studies show that the combined LIFS-OCT method could be introduced in clinical algorithms for early tumor detection and differentiation between normal/benign/malignant skin lesions.

关键词： Cutaneous fluorescence OCT BCC images endogenous porphyrins skin cancer

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Identifying Composite Crosscutting Concerns with Scatter-Based Graph Clustering

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences 2012年第2期17卷 114-120页

作者： HUANG Jin BETEV latchezar CARMINATI Federico ZHU Jianlin LU Yansheng School of Computer Science and Technology HuazhongUniversity of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 HubeiChina European Organization for Nuclear Research （CERN） CH-1211 Geneva 23 Switzerland College of Physics Science and Technology HuazhongNormal University Wuhan 430079 Hubei China

Identifying composite crosscutting concerns（CCs） is a research task and challenge of aspect *** this paper,we propose a scatter-based graph clustering approach to identify composite *** by the state-of-the-art link analysis tech-niques,we propose a two-state model to approximate how CCs tangle with core *** to this model,we obtain scatter and centralization scores for each program ***-cially,the scatter scores are adopted to select CC ***-more,to identify composite CCs,we adopt a novel similarity measurement and develop an undirected graph clustering to group these ***,we compare it with the previous work and illustrate its effectiveness in identifying composite CCs.

关键词： software engineering aspect mining link analysis undirected graph clustering

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Photodynamic diagnostics of early gastric cancer:Complexity measures of gastric microcirculation and new model of metastatic adenocarcinoma of rat stomach

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Journal of Innovative Optical Health Sciences 2019年第2期12卷 64-73页

作者： Alexey Pavlov Ekaterina Borisova Olga Pavlova Ilana Agranovich Alexander Khorovodov Andrey Terskov Aysel Mamedova Maria Klimova latchezar Avramov Oxana Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya Saratov State University 83 Astrakhanskaya Str.Saratov 410012Russia Institute of Electronics Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Tsarigradsko Chaussee Blvd.72Sofia 1784Bulgaria

The detection of early gastric cancer that often develops asymptomatically is crucial for improving patient *** photodynamic diagnosis(PDD)of gastric cancer using 5-aminolevulinic acid/protoporphyrin IX(5-ALA/PpIX)has been reported in several ***,the selectivity of PDD of gastric tumor is poor with often false-positive results that require the development of new methods to improve PDD for early gastric ***,a measure of the complexity of gastric microcirculation(multi-scale entropy,MSE)and the detrendedfluctuation analysis(DFA)were applied as additional tools to detect early gastric cancer in *** this experimental study,we used our original model of metastatic adenocarcinoma in the stomach of a *** induce a gastric tumor,we used a long-term combination(for 9 months,which is 1/2 of the life of rats)of two natural factors,such as chronic stress(overpopulation being typical for modern cities)and the daily presence of nitrites in food and drinks,which are common ingredients added to processed meat andfish to help preserve *** results clearly show that both methods,namely,PDD using 5-ALA/PpIX and complexity/correlation analysis,can detect early gastric cancer,which was confirmed by histological ***-cancerous areas in the stomach were detected as an intermediatefluorescent signal or MSE level between normal and malignant lesions of the ***,in some cases,PDD with 5-ALA/PpIX produced a false-positivefluorescence of exogenousfluorophores due to its accumulation in benign and inflammatory areas of the *** fact indicates that the PDD itself is not sufficient for the correct diagnosis of gastric cancer,and the use of additional characteristics,e.g.,complexity measures or scaling exponents,can significantly improve the diagnostic accuracy of PDD of gastric cancer that should be confirmed in further clinical studies and applications.

关键词： Experimental model of gastric cancer in animals highly heterogeneous adenocarcinoma photodynamic diagnosis complexity measures gastric microcirculation

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