Pandemic control-do's and don'ts from a control theory perspective

作     者：Latchezar Tomov Dimitrina Miteva Metodija Sekulovski Hristiana Batselova Tsvetelina Velikova 

作者机构：Department of InformaticsNew Bulgarian UniversitySofia 1618Bulgaria Department of GeneticsSofia University"St.Kliment Ohridski"Sofia 1164Bulgaria Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive careUniversity Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria Medical FacultySofia University St.Kliment OhridskiSofia 1407Bulgaria Department of Epidemiology and Disaster MedicineMedical UniversityPlovdivUniversity Hospital"St George"Plovdiv 6000Bulgaria Department of Clinical ImmunologyUniversity Hospital LozenetzSofia 1407Bulgaria 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Methodology》 (世界方法学杂志)

年 卷 期：2022年第12卷第5期

页      面：392-401页

学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

主　　题：COVID-19 pandemic Control Control theory COVID zero Flattening the curve 

摘      要：Managing a pandemic is a difficult *** are part of the dynamics of nonlinear systems with multiple different interactive features that co-adapt to each other(such as humans,animals,and pathogens).The target of controlling such a nonlinear system is best achieved using the control system theory developed in engineering and applied in systems *** is this theory and its principles actually used in controlling the current coronavirus disease-19 pandemic?We review the evidence for applying principles in different aspects of pandemic control related to different goals such as disease eradication,disease containment,and short-or long-term economic loss *** policies implement multiple measures in concordance with control theory to achieve a robust *** contrast,unsuccessful policies have numerous failures in different measures or focus only on a single measure(only testing,vaccines,etc.).Successful approaches rely on predictions instead of reactions to compensate for the costs of time delay,on knowledge-based analysis instead of trial-and-error,to control complex nonlinear systems,and on risk assessment instead of waiting for more *** is an example of the effects of delayed response due to waiting for evidence to arrive instead of a proper risk analytical *** Zealand,Australia,and China are examples of appropriate application of basic control theoretic principles and focusing on long-term adaptive strategies,updating measures with the evolution of the pandemic.