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High-Resolution Projections of Mean and Extreme Precipitation over China by Two Regional Climate Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 965-985页

作者： Zhiyu JIANG Zhan TIAN Guangtao DONG laixiang sun Peiqun ZHANG Erasmo BUONOMO Dongli FAN Shanghai Institute of Technology Shanghai 201400China Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Key Laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA School of Finance and Management School of Oriental and African Studies of University of LondonL ondon WC1H 0XGUK Beijing Climate Center/National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK

In this study, we employ two regional climate models(RCMs or RegCMs), which are RegCM4 and PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies), with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, to simulate the precipitation dynamics across China for the baseline climate of 1981–2010 and two future climates of 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. The global climate model(GCM)—Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth Systems(HadGEM2-ES) is used to drive the two RCMs. The results of baseline simulations show that the two RCMs can correct the obvious underestimation of light rain below 5 mm day^-1 and the overestimation of precipitation above 5 mm day^-1 in Northwest China and the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, as being produced by the driving GCM. While PRECIS outperforms RegCM4 in simulating annual precipitation and wet days in several sub-regions of Northwest China, its underperformance shows up in eastern China. For extreme precipitation, the two RCMs provide a more accurate simulation of continuous wet days(CWD) with reduced biases and more realistic spatial patterns compared to their driving GCM. For other extreme precipitation indices, the RCM simulations show limited benefit except for an improved performance in some localized regions. The future projections of the two RCMs show an increase in the annual precipitation amount and the intensity of extreme precipitation events in most regions. Most areas of Southeast China will experience fewer number of wet days, especially in summer, but more precipitation per wet day(≥ 30 mm day^-1). By contrast, number of wet days will increase in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northern China. The increase in both the maximum precipitation for five consecutive days and the regional extreme precipitation will lead to a higher risk of increased flooding. The findings of this study can facilitate the efforts of climate service institutions and government agencies to improve climate services and to make climate-smart decisions

关键词： climate change extreme precipitation dynamical downscaling regional climate models(RCMs) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX)

深度不确定性下沿海洪水气候变化适应决策方法述评

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科学通报 2022年第22期67卷 2638-2650页

作者：田展吴文娴刘俊国 laixiang sun 南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院深圳518055 Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA

深度不确定性下适应气候变化的稳健决策是当前决策者和科学家共同面临的难题.以往基于气候模式预估结果进行风险评估和决策规划的局限性日益凸显,模型参数、预测结果等多方面不确定性组成的深度不确定性给决策带来的风险远超一般不确定... 详细信息

深度不确定性下适应气候变化的稳健决策是当前决策者和科学家共同面临的难题.以往基于气候模式预估结果进行风险评估和决策规划的局限性日益凸显,模型参数、预测结果等多方面不确定性组成的深度不确定性给决策带来的风险远超一般不确定性.近年来,研究者将稳健决策理论、适应路径方法、工程选择分析等运用于气候变化适应决策研究,它们能够系统化筛选处理深度不确定性,从而更好地把握不确定性对气候变化决策的影响.本文以沿海城市洪水适应气候变化为例,综述稳健决策、适应路径、工程选择分析3种方法的特点和相互联系.稳健决策方法结合了传统控制理论与现代管理决策理论,专注于未来场景生成、适应措施的成本-效益比较、巨量场景-适应措施的比较静态筛选.适应路径方法更关注时间维度上的场景-适应措施选择,但对未来场景缺乏充分考量.工程选择分析方法基于适应路径方法框架,专注于具体工程设计,但缺乏应用经验.如何将3种决策方法综合应用,以期服务于面向多个决策目标、构建多个未来场景、组合多种应对措施的决策过程,促进科学家、政策制定者和其他利益相关者在决策中的持续有效对话的“知识共创”过程是开展深度不确定性下气候变化适应决策的新趋势.

关键词：深度不确定性气候变化适应沿海洪水风险稳健决策方法适应路径工程选择分析

Advancing index-based climate risk assessment to facilitate adaptation planning:Application in Shanghai and Shenzhen,China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第3期13卷 432-442页

作者： Zhan TIAN Xin-Yang LYU Huan ZOU Hong-Long YANG laixiang sun Maria sunyer PINYA Qing-Chen CHAO Ai-Qing FENG Ben SMITH School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Shanghai Institute of Technology Shanghai 200235China School of Finance and Management SOAS University of LondonLondon WC1H 0XGUK Shenzhen National Climate Observatory of Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality Shenzhen 518040China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20742USA Arup Group Limited London W1T 4BQUK National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10081China China Meteorological Administration Climate Studies Key Laboratory Beijing 100081China

One of the key issues in climate risk management is to develop climate resilient infrastructure so as to ensure safety and sustainability of urban functioning systems as well as mitigate the adverse impacts associated with increasing climate ***,conventional methods of assessing risks do not fully address the interaction of various subsystems within the city system and are unable to consolidate diverse opinions of various stakeholders on their assessments of sector-specific risks posed by climate *** address this gap,this study advances an integrated-systems-analysis tool-Climate Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Tool(CRAIT),and applies it to analyze and compare the extent of risk factor exposure and vulnerability over time across five critical urban infrastructure sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen,two cities that have distinctive geo-climate profiles and histories of infrastructure *** results show significantly higher level of variation between the two cities in terms of vulnerability levels than that of *** specifically,the sectors of critical buildings,water,energy,and information&communication in Shenzhen have significantly higher vulnerability levels than Shanghai in both the 2000s and the *** further discussed the vulnerability levels of subsystems in each sector and proposed twelve potential adaptation options for the roads system based on four sets of criteria:technical feasibility,flexibility,co-benefits,and policy *** application of CRAIT is bound to be a knowledge co-production process with the local experts and *** knowledge co-production process highlights the importance of management advancements and nature-based green solutions in managing climate change risk in the future though differences are observed across the efficacy categories due to the geographical and meteorological conditions in the two *** study demonstrates that this knowledge co-creation process is valuable

关键词： Climate risk assessment Megacities Resilient urban infrastructures Subsystem Knowledge co-creation process China

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采样周期对最优采样值调节器稳定性的影响

控制理论与应用 1987年第4期 70-75页

作者：孙莱祥复旦大学上海

本文研究了最优采样值调节器的渐近稳定性,在一般最优采样值调节器和稳定最优采样值调节器的两种情形下,给出了最优采样值调节器为渐近稳定的条件,从而提供了采样周期的选择方法。

关键词：采样周期采样间隔采样值渐近稳定性调节器控制器

Water consumption and biodiversity:Responses to global emergency events

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Science Bulletin 2024年第16期69卷 2632-2646页

作者： Dandan Zhao Junguo Liu laixiang sun Klaus Hubacek Stephan Pfister Kuishuang Feng Heran Zheng Xu Peng Daoping Wang Hong Yang Lei Shen Fei Lun Xu Zhao Bin Chen Marko Keskinen Shaohui Zhang Jialiang Cai Olli Varis Water&Development Research Group Department of Built EnvironmentAalto UniversityEspoo 15200Finland School of Water Conservancy North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhou 450046China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege Park 20742USA School of Finance and Management SOASUniversity of LondonLondon WC1H0XGUK Integrated Research on Energy Environment and SocietyEnergy and Sustainability Research Institute GroningenUniversity of GroningenGroningen 9747AGthe Netherlands ETH Zurich Institute of Environmental EngineeringZurich 8093Switzerland The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction University College LondonLondon WC1E6BTUK School of Business Jiangnan UniversityWuxi 214122China Department of Computer Science and Technology University of CambridgeCambridge CB21TNUK w2e Environmental Consulting GmbH Duebendorf 8600Switzerland Key Laboratory for Resource Use and Environmental Remediation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Land Science and Technology China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China Institute of Blue and Green Development Shandong UniversityWeihai 264209China Fudan Tyndall Center Department of Environmental Science and EngineeringFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China School of Economics and Management Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg A-2361Austria

Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work *** changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic,with direct and indirect consequences on ***,there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these ***,we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)*** framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of *** results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system’s self-adjustment to the new *** 2020,the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement ***,such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on *** the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains,even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts:Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84%of the reduction in biodiversity loss on *** study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency ***,we recommend the development o

关键词： Global emergency events Water-biodiversity causal effect COVID-19 Biodiversity MRIO-enhanced DPSIR framework Supply-chain network High-resolution water consumption dataset Supply-constrained multi-regional input-output(mixed MRIO)model

A multi-objective optimization approach for harnessing rainwater in changing climate

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第5期15卷 976-987页

作者： Ling-Yu MENG Zhan TIAN Dong-Li FAN Frans H.M.VAN DE VEN laixiang sun Qing-Hua YE San-Xiang sun Jun-Guo LIU Laura NOUGUES Daan ROOZE School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering Shanghai Institute of TechnologyShanghai 201418China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Poution Control School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Scienceand TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Pengcheng Laboratory Shenzhen 518000China Deltares Delft 2629 HVNetherlands Water Management Faculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesDelft University of TechnologyDelft 2628 CNNetherlands Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandMaryland 20742United States School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou 730070China

As the world grapples with the profound impacts of climate change,water scarcity has become a pressing ***,there is a shortage of in-depth research on the trade-offs between water resource dependence and the economic,ecological,and social needs of arid and semi-arid regions like Lanzhou,*** cultivation in Lanzhou relies heavily on the Yellow River,often overlooking the potential of natural *** we first calibrated a water balance model through artificial precipitation experiments in a Soil and Water Conservation Demonstration Park in *** then developed a multi-objective optimization model to balance the cost-benefit considerations of various plausible measures across economic,ecological,and social dimensions in the searching for solutions that are more adaptable to climate change and local devel-opment *** simulations show that the solutions we designed can effectively manage water-shortage days,significantly reduce Yellow River water extraction,and improve cost-effectiveness,meeting 66%-80%of water needs for flower cultivation in the studied *** findings highlight the potential of rainwater collection and utilization solutions to mitigate water scarcity in arid and semi-arid cities,thereby enriching water resource management.

关键词： Rainwater harvesting Rainwater resource utilization Climate change adaptation Multi-objective decision making Arid and semi-arid regions

滋肾方和调心方对阿尔茨海默病模型大鼠疗效比较

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天津医药 2008年第10期36卷 789-791页

作者：张媛孙兵林来祥天津医科大学基础医学院生理教研室 300070 天津医科大学内分泌研究所卫生部激素与发育重点实验室

目的:探讨调心方和滋肾方对阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's disease,AD)模型大鼠治疗机制及疗效比较。方法:持续注射D-半乳糖法致亚急性衰老大鼠模型,再用鹅膏蕈氨酸(ibotenic acid,IA)化学损毁大鼠双侧Meynert基底核。造模后,大鼠分为AD模... 详细信息

目的:探讨调心方和滋肾方对阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's disease,AD)模型大鼠治疗机制及疗效比较。方法:持续注射D-半乳糖法致亚急性衰老大鼠模型,再用鹅膏蕈氨酸(ibotenic acid,IA)化学损毁大鼠双侧Meynert基底核。造模后,大鼠分为AD模型组、调心方组、滋肾方组、脑复康组。给药治疗前后以"Y"型电迷宫进行学习记忆观察,用分光光度法测定大鼠海马组织胆碱酯酶(cholinesterase,CHE)的活性,并与对照组比较。结果:调心方组大鼠学习能力提高(P<0.05),滋肾方组大鼠学习和记忆能力均提高(P<0.05或P<0.01),调心方组和滋肾方组大鼠海马组织中CHE活性较AD模型组均提高(P<0.01)。结论:调心方和滋肾方均可以提高AD模型大鼠学习记忆能力,其作用机制可能与大鼠海马组织中CHE活性改变有关。

关键词：阿尔茨海默病疾病模型动物滋肾补心方剂大鼠 Wistar

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微量尿碘的低砷铈催化分光光度测定法

中华地方病学杂志 2015年第11期34卷 847-850页

作者：夏莉张媛孙劼乔欣林来祥张万起天津医科大学基础医学院临床医学硕士研究生 300070 天津医科大学基础医学院生理学教研室天津医科大学影像学院天津市内分泌研究所卫生部激素与发育重点实验室天津医科大学公共卫生学院

目的建立微量尿碘的低砷铈催化分光光度测定法，减少废液砷对环境的污染，批量测定微量尿碘。方法以过硫酸铵消化．砷铈催化分光光度法测定尿碘的原理为基础，96微孔板作为消化、催化反应容器．恒温烘箱作为消化加热工具，冰板降温，利... 详细信息

目的建立微量尿碘的低砷铈催化分光光度测定法，减少废液砷对环境的污染，批量测定微量尿碘。方法以过硫酸铵消化．砷铈催化分光光度法测定尿碘的原理为基础，96微孔板作为消化、催化反应容器．恒温烘箱作为消化加热工具，冰板降温，利用酶标仪测定吸光度值。建立微量尿碘低砷铈催化分光光度测定法（以下简称新方法）。分析新方法性能（包括检出限实验、精密度实验、尿碘标准物测定、样品加标回收实验），并用新方法与我国尿碘定量检测的标准方法[《尿中碘的砷铈催化分光光度测定方法》（ws／T107．2006），以下简称标准法]同时测定24份人尿样（高、中、低碘含量尿样各8份），将尿碘结果进行对比分析，验证新方法的准确度。结果新方法检测尿碘线性范围为0—300μg／L；标准尿碘含量与测得吸光度值的对数之间相关系数（r）≥0．999；检出限为8．67μg／L；高、中、低碘含量尿样检测值变异系数（CV）分别为2．15％、4．33％、3．48％；高、中、低碘含量标准物质检测值相对偏差（RD）分别为-0．16％、1．81％、-2．82％；低碘含量尿样加标回收率为97．51％，高碘含量尿样加标回收率为96．01％。新方法与标准法检测尿碘结果有统计学相关性（r=0．995，P〈0．05）。结论新方法明显减少废液含砷量，降低环境污染，试剂用量节省，操作简便快捷，结果准确可靠，适合作为微量尿碘批量测试的补充方法推广。

关键词：尿碘分光光度法

β片层阻断肽H102对PAP小鼠脑内ERK信号转导通路的影响

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天津医药 2014年第7期42卷 650-653,I0001页

作者：王冰艳孙凤仙林来祥徐淑梅天津医科大学生理教研室 300070 天津医科内分泌研究所 300070

目的研究β片层阻断肽H102对PAP双转基因小鼠脑内ERK信号转导通路的激活作用。方法将PAP双转基因小鼠随机分为模型组和给药组,每组10只,设同背景C57BL/6J小鼠为对照组。给药组每日鼻腔给予H102溶液(5.8 mg/kg)5μL,对照组、模型组每日... 详细信息

目的研究β片层阻断肽H102对PAP双转基因小鼠脑内ERK信号转导通路的激活作用。方法将PAP双转基因小鼠随机分为模型组和给药组,每组10只,设同背景C57BL/6J小鼠为对照组。给药组每日鼻腔给予H102溶液(5.8 mg/kg)5μL,对照组、模型组每日鼻腔给予等体积H102空白辅料溶液。30 d后行Morris水迷宫测试。之后采用免疫组化及免疫印迹技术观察小鼠脑组织内RAS、P-MEK及P-ERK蛋白的表达变化。结果 (1)Morris水迷宫测试。模型组小鼠学习记忆能力较对照组显著降低,给药组较模型组显著提高(均P<0.05)。(2)免疫组化及免疫印迹检测结果。模型组脑内RAS、P-MEK及P-ERK表达较对照组显著降低,给药组蛋白表达较模型组显著增高(均P<0.01)。结论β片层阻断肽H102可激活PAP双转基因小鼠脑内ERK信号转导通路,增加神经细胞PAS、P-MEK及P-ERK的含量,改善PAP小鼠学习记忆能力。

关键词：阿尔茨海默病丝裂原激活蛋白激酶激酶类小鼠转基因投药鼻内 ERK信号转导通路 β片层阻断肽 RAS P—MEK P—ERK