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Predictability of the Summer East Asian Upper-Tropospheric Westerly Jet in ENSEMBLES Multi-Model Forecasts

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第12期32卷 1669-1682页

作者： li chaofan liN Zhongda Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet （EAJ） significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint, from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation, to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts, initiated from 1 May, in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960-2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ, which reflects the models＇ performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally, the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast, the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis, associated with the meridional displacement, and interannual intensity change of the EAJ, the second leading EOF mode, meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and, subsequently, summer climate in East Asia, using current coupled models.

关键词： East Asian westerly jet seasonal prediction coupled model meridional displacement

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Contrasts between the Interannual Variations of Extreme Rainfall over Western and Eastern Sichuan in Mid-summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第6期39卷 999-1011页

作者： Mengyu DENG Riyu LU chaofan li State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Chengdu 610072China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China

Rainfall amount in mid-summer(July and August)is much greater over eastern than western Sichuan,which are characterized by basin and plateau,*** is shown that the interannual variations of extreme rainfall over these two regions are roughly independent,and they correspond to distinct anomalies of both large-scale circulation and sea surface temperature(SST).The enhanced extreme rainfall over western Sichuan is associated with a southward shift of the Asian westerly jet,while the enhanced extreme rainfall over eastern Sichuan is associated with an anticyclonic anomaly in the upper troposphere over *** low levels,on the other hand,the enhanced extreme rainfall over western Sichuan is related to two components of wind anomalies,namely southwesterly over southwestern Sichuan and northeasterly over northeastern Sichuan,which favor more rainfall under the effects of the *** speaking,the enhanced extreme rainfall over eastern Sichuan corresponds to the low-level southerly anomalies to the east of Sichuan,which curve into northeasterly anomalies over the basin when they encounter the mountains to the north of the ***,it can be concluded that the topography in and around Sichuan plays a crucial role in inducing extreme rainfall both over western and eastern ***,the enhanced extreme rainfall in western and eastern Sichuan is related to warmer SSTs in the Maritime Continent and cooler SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific,respectively.

关键词： extreme rainfall Sichuan interannual variation topography large-scale circulation

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Prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 101-112页

作者： chaofan li Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere–ocean–land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east–west dipole local sea surface temperature(SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air–sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST–rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air–sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high seasonal forecast neutral year air–sea interaction

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Effects of nitrogen deposition on the carbon budget and water stress in Central Asia under climate change

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第8期16卷 1118-1129页

作者： HAN Qifei XU Wei li chaofan School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen(N)plays a significant role in shaping the structure and functioning of various terrestrial ecosystems ***,the magnitude of N deposition on grassland ecosystems in Central Asia still remains highly *** this study,a multi-data approach was adopted to analyze the distribution and amplitude of N deposition effects in Central Asia from 1979 to 2014 using a process-based denitrification decomposition(DNDC)*** showed that total vegetation carbon(C)in Central Asia was 0.35(±0.09)Pg C/a and the averaged water stress index(WSI)was 0.20(±0.02)for the whole *** N deposition led to an increase in the vegetation C of 65.56(±83.03)Tg C and slightly decreased water stress in Central *** of this study will expand both our understanding and predictive capacity of C characteristics under future increases in N deposition,and also serve as a valuable reference for decision-making regarding water resources management and climate change mitigation in arid and semi-arid areas globally.

关键词： carbon dynamics climate change grassland ecosystems nitrogen deposition water stress index

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Meridional Displacement of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Westerly Jet and Its Relationship with the East Asian Summer Rainfall in CMIP5 Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第11期36卷 1203-1216页

作者： Yuhan YAN chaofan li Riyu LU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

As the first leading mode of upper-tropospheric circulation in observations, the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) varies closely with the East Asian rainfall in summer. In this study, the interannual variation of the EAJ meridional displacement and its relationship with the East Asian summer rainfall are evaluated, using the historical simulations of CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The models can generally reproduce the meridional displacement of the EAJ, which is mainly manifested as the first principal mode in most of the simulations. For the relationship between the meridional displacement of the EAJ and East Asian rainfall, almost all the models depict a weaker correlation than observations and exhibit considerably large spread across the models. It is found that the discrepancy in the interannual relationship is closely related to the simulation of the climate mean state, including the climatological location of the westerly jet in Eurasia and rainfall bias in South Asia and the western North Pacific. In addition, a close relationship between the simulation discrepancy and intensity of EAJ variability is also found: the models with a stronger intensity of the EAJ meridional displacement tend to reproduce a closer interannual relationship, and vice versa.

关键词： East Asian westerly jet meridional teleconnection East Asian rainband model simulation

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Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 273-282页

作者： SU Qin LU Riyu li chaofan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Interannual variation in summer rainfall over South China （SC） was investigated on the monthly *** was found that monthly rainfall from May to August exhibits different features of variation,and the amounts are basically independent of each *** is a significant negative correlation,however,between May and July SC rainfall,which is partially related to the developing phases of ENSO *** was also found that stronger （weaker） lower-tropospheric winds over SC and the upstream parts are responsible for more （less） SC rainfall in every month from May to *** this monthly consistent enhancement of horizontal winds,the wind anomalies exhibit distinct differences between May-June and July-August,due to the remarkable change in climatological winds between these two *** SC rainfall is associated with a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and the Philippine Sea in May and June,but with a cyclonic anomaly centered over SC in July and August.

关键词： subseasonal variation interannual variation South China rainfall general circulation anomalies

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Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第4期31卷 779-786页

作者： Se-Hwan YANG li chaofan LU Riyu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Winter rainfall over South China shows strong interannual variability,which accounts for about half of the total winter rainfall over South *** study investigated the predictability of winter （December-January-February; DJF） rainfall over South China using the retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models included in the ENSEMBLES project for the period *** was found that the ENSEMBLES models predicted the interannual variation of rainfall over South China well,with the correlation coefficient between the observed/station-averaged rainfall and predicted/areaaveraged rainfall being *** particular,above-normal South China rainfall was better predicted,and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed anomalies was 0.64 for these wetter *** addition,the models captured well the main features of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies related to South China rainfall variation in the *** was further found that South China rainfall,when predicted according to predicted DJF Nifio3.4 index and the ENSO-South China rainfall relationship,shows a prediction skill almost as high as that directly predicted,indicating that ENSO is the source for the predictability of South China rainfall.

关键词： predictability South China winter rainfall ENSO ENSEMBLES

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Why Was the Strengthening of Rainfall in Summer over the Yangtze River Valley in 2016 Less Pronounced than that in 1998 under Similar Preceding El Nino Events？Role of Midlatitude Circulation in August

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第11期34卷 1290-1300页

作者： chaofan li wei chen xiaowei hong riyu lu center for monsoon system research institute of atmospheric physicschinese academy of sciencesBeijing 100029China state key laboratory of numerical modelling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics institute of atmospheric physicschinese academy of sciencesBeijing 100029China climate change research center chinese academy of sciencesBeijing 100029China

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley （YRV） strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of E1 Nifio, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 E1 Nifio having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016--different to the positive anomaly of 1998.

关键词： Yangtze River valley summer rainfall super El Nio sub-seasonal variation Silk Road Pattern

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Isolated deep convections over the Tibetan Plateau in the rainy season during 2001–2020

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 16-21页

作者： Ying Na chaofan li Riyu Lu School of Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing Wuxi UniversityWuxiChina Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink China Meteorological Administration(ECSS-CMA)Wuxi UniversityWuxiChina Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is a prevalent region for convection systems due to its unique thermodynamic *** study investigated isolated deep convections(IDCs),which have a smaller spatial and temporal size than mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),over the TP in the rainy season(June-September)during 2001–*** authors used satellite precipitation and brightness temperature observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement *** show that IDCs mainly concentrate over the southern *** IDC number per rainy season decreases from around 140 over the southern TP to around 10 over the northern TP,with an average *** initiation time of IDCs exhibits an obvious diurnal cycle,with the peak at 1400–1500 LST and the valley at 0900–1000 *** IDCs last less than five hours and more than half appear for only one *** generally have a cold cloud area of 7422.9 km^(2),containing a precipitation area of approximately 65%.The larger the IDC,the larger the fraction of intense precipitation it *** contribute approximately 20%–30%to total precipitation and approximately 30%–40%to extreme precipitation over the TP,with a larger percentage in July and August than in June and *** terms of spatial distribution,IDCs contribute more to both total precipitation and extreme precipitation over the TP compared to the surrounding plain *** over the TP account for a larger fraction than MCSs,indicating the important role of IDCs over the region.

关键词： Isolated deep convection Tibetan plateau Climatological characteristics Precipitation contribution Extreme precipitation

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The Anomalous Mei-yu Rainfall of Summer 2020 from a Circulation Clustering Perspective:Current and Possible Future Prevalence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2010-2022,I0002-I0008页

作者： Robin T.CLARK Peili WU lixia ZHANG chaofan li Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Highly unusual amounts of rainfall were seen in the 2020 summer in many parts of China,Japan,and South *** the intercontinental scale,case studies have attributed this exceptional event to a displacement of the climatological western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,potentially associated Indian Ocean sea surface temperature patterns and a mid-latitude wave train emanating from the North *** clusters of spatial patterns of sea level pressure,we show that an unprecedented 80%of the 2020 summer days in East Asia were dominated by clusters of surface pressure greater than normal over the South China *** examining the rainfall and water vapor fluxes in other years when these clusters were also prevalent,we find that the frequency of these types of clusters was likely to have been largely responsible for the unusual rainfall of *** two ensembles of future climate projections,we show that summers like 2020 in East Asia may become more frequent and considerably wetter in a warmer world with an enhanced moisture supply.

关键词： circulation clustering mei-yu front 2020 summer rainfall climate projections

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