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Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

作     者:Se-Hwan YANG LI Chaofan LU Riyu 

作者机构:State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Monsoon System ResearchInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences 

出 版 物:《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展(英文版))

年 卷 期:2014年第31卷第4期

页      面:779-786页

核心收录:

学科分类:07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基  金:supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305067 and 41320104007) 

主  题:predictability South China winter rainfall ENSO ENSEMBLES 

摘      要:Winter rainfall over South China shows strong interannual variability,which accounts for about half of the total winter rainfall over South *** study investigated the predictability of winter (December-January-February; DJF) rainfall over South China using the retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models included in the ENSEMBLES project for the period *** was found that the ENSEMBLES models predicted the interannual variation of rainfall over South China well,with the correlation coefficient between the observed/station-averaged rainfall and predicted/areaaveraged rainfall being *** particular,above-normal South China rainfall was better predicted,and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed anomalies was 0.64 for these wetter *** addition,the models captured well the main features of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies related to South China rainfall variation in the *** was further found that South China rainfall,when predicted according to predicted DJF Nifio3.4 index and the ENSO-South China rainfall relationship,shows a prediction skill almost as high as that directly predicted,indicating that ENSO is the source for the predictability of South China rainfall.

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