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SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS APPROACH TO POLICY DEVELOPMENT FOR GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2010年第1期19卷 1-21页

作者： keith w. hipel Liping FANG Michele HENG Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Ryerson University Toronto Canada

A formal policy development framew.rk, based on a system of systems （SOS） approach, is synthesized to systematically address, in an integrative and adaptive fashion, major global challenges, such as the current food and fjnancial crises, and their interactions w.th other key natural, societal, and technological systems. A SoS approach seeks to respect the different value systems of multiple participants, to harness complexity through effective integration, and to engage the w.rld of uncertainty and unpredictability w.th an adaptive response. Faced w.th the present global challenges, w.at is needed are strategic and operational methods w.ich lead to ethical policies, enhance integrative and adaptive management practices, and are able to direct conflict resolution in a positive direction. Policy makers need tools to model and analyze complex systems w.ich they are trying to responsibly govern, taking into account values and risks to design and evaluate different policies. A preliminary investigation into the global food system is undertaken to understand the SoS and to provide insights on how.to carry out policy development using the proposed framew.rk.

关键词： Complex systems conflict resolution global food system risk management system of systems values

CONFLICT ANALYSIS APPROACHES FOR INVESTIGATING ATTITUDES AND MISPERCEPTIONS IN THE w.R OF 1812

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2007年第2期16卷 181-201页

作者： Takehiro INOHARA keith w. hipel Sean w.LKER Department of Value and Decision Science Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo Japan Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed w.thin the framew.rk of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the w.r of 1812 betw.en the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the w.r. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the w.r of 1812, attitudes are studied w.thin the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions w.thin the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool w.ich demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty w.r.

关键词： Attitudes conflict analysis graph model for conflict resolution misperceptions relational stability concepts w.r of 1812

Editorial on Conflict Resolution and Group Decision Based on Papers from the 2018 International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation (GDN 2018)

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2019年第4期28卷 395-398页

作者： keith w. hipel Haiyan Xu Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Ontario N2L 3G1 Canada Centre for International Governance Innovation Waterloo Ontario N2L 6C2 Canada Balsillie School of International Affairs Waterloo Ontario N2L 6C2Z Canada College of Economics and Management Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing 211106 China

The key objective of this special issue of the Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE) is to assess papers con? taining leading-edge ideas on the theory and practice of conflict resolution and group decision making. Earlier versions of these fine papers w.re originally delivered by the authors at the 18th International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation (GDN) w.ich w.s held in Nanjing, China, from June 9 to 13,2018 (GDN 2018), and w.ich appeared as extended abstracts in a conference proceedings ed让ed by Jiang et al.

关键词： Group Decision Negotiation

RISK REDUCTION IN A PROJECT PORTFOLIO

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2017年第1期26卷 3-22页

作者： Dujuan Guan Peng Guo keith w. hipel Liping Fang School of Management Northwestern Polytechnical University Xi 'an 710072 China Department of Management Hefei University Hefei 230601 China Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Ontario Canada N2L 3G1 Centre for International Governance Innovation Waterloo Ontario Canada N2L 6C2 Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Ryerson University Toronto Ontario Canada M5B 2K3

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact w.th each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian netw.rk structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent netw.rk of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show.that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.

关键词： Project portfolio integrated risk set theory Bayesian netw.rk risk assessment

A HIERARCHICAL MULTIPLE CRITERIA MODEL FOR ELICITING RELATIVE PREFERENCES IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2012年第1期21卷 56-76页

作者： Ginger Y. KE Bing FU Mitali DE keith w. hipel Department of Management Sciences University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada N2G 3G1 Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada N2G 3G1 Department of Business Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo Canada N2L 3C5

A multiple criteria decision analysis （MCDA） approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in ＇a conflict. More specifically, an MCDA approach based on the outranking method, ELECTRE III, is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred, w.ere ties are allow.d, for a decision maker according to his or her value system. To demonstrate how.this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice w.thin the framew.rk of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, it is applied to a real w.rld w.ter supply crisis w.ich occurred in the tow. of North Battleford, located in the Canadian province of Saskatchew.n.

关键词： Multiple criteria decision analysis graph model for conflict resolution ELECTRE III fuzzy preferences

OPTION PRIORITIZATION FOR UNKNOw. PREFERENCE

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2016年第1期25卷 39-61页

作者： Jing Yu keith w. hipel D. Marc Kilgour Min Zhao Business School Hohai University Nanjing Jiangsu 211100 China Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo N2L 3G1 Canada Department of Mathematics Wt'lfrid Laurier University Waterloo N2L 3C5 Canada Centre for International Governance Innovation Waterloo Ontario Canada w.ter Resources and Sustainable Development Research Centre of Jiangsu Province Nanjing 210098 China

An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknow. and crisp, of decision makers （DMs） in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of w.ich may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed w.en all DMs make an option selection. The softw.re GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeUer to enter a DM＇s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM＇s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding tw. new.logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how.this new.methodology can be used to represent tmknow. preferences in a real-w.rld decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed w.ter exports.

关键词： Graph model for conflict resolution option prioritization unknow. preference logical connectives

Strategic Analysis of a Regulatory Conflict Using Dempster-Shafer Theory and AHP for Preference Elicitation

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2019年第4期28卷 415-433页

作者： Maisa M. Silva keith w. hipel D. Marc Kilgour Ana Paula C. S. Costa Department of Management Engineerin& Universidade Federal de Pernambuco Recife Brazil Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo Canada Department of Mathematics Wilfrid Laurier UniversityWaterloo Canada

Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are integrated in order to elicit preference information from experts regarding decision makers (DMs) involved in a regulatory conflict. More precisely, DST is used for combining expert know.edge regarding preferences of a specific DM (the regulatory body), and AHP is employed for ranking feasible states in the conflict for this same DM. In order to illustrate how.this preference elicitation proposal can be conveniently implemented in practice w.thin the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), it is applied to a real construction dispute located in the city of Ipojuca, Brazil. The conflict is modeled w.th three DMs: support, opposition, and the regulatory body. Results show.that the new.preference methodology possesses many inherent advantages including high flexibility the ability to capture uncertainty or even ignorance about preferences, the possibility of combining expert know.edge w.th respect to missing preferences, and a substantial reduction in the number of pairw.se comparisons of states required to express preference information.

关键词： Regulatory conflict graph model for conflict resolution absence of preference information DST-AHP

COMPARISON OF THE ANALYTIC NETw.RK PROCESS AND THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2005年第3期14卷 308-325页

作者： Xin SU Ye CHEN keith w. hipel D. Marc KILGOUR Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo. Waterloo Ontario N2L3G1 Canada Department of Mathematics w.lfrid Laurier University Waterloo Ontario N2L3C5 Canada

A comparison of tw. decision analysis tools for the analysis of strategic conflicts, the Analytic Netw.rk Process （ANP） and the graph model for conflict resolution, is carried out by applying them to the China-US TV dumping conflict. Firstly, the graph model is introduced along w.th practical procedures for modeling and analyzing conflicts using the decision support softw.re, GMCR Ⅱ. Next, ANP is explained, emphasizing structural features and procedures for synthesizing priorities. Then a framew.rk for employing ANP to analyze strategic conflicts is designed and used to compare ANP to the graph model. The case study of the China-US TV dumping conflict provides a basis for the graph model and ANP to be compared; different features of the approaches are highlighted. The study show. that because of different theoretical backgrounds, ANP and the graph model for conflict analysis both provide useful information w.ich can be combined to furnish a better understanding of a strategic conflict.

关键词： Strategic conflict graph model for conflict resolution Analytic Netw.rk Process decision support system China-US TV dumping conflict

A PERSONAL MEMOIR OF w.IMIN ZHENG-“A MAN FOR ALL SEASONS”

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2013年第4期22卷 499-504页

作者： keith w.hipel Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo

In 1951 Professor w.imin Zheng returned to the People＇s Republic of China from the United Kingdom to assist in building his country into a modern nation. Rather than pursue a doctoral degree at the California Institute of Technology, or Caltech as it is popularly called, Professor Zheng, unselfishly and patriotically, decided that he w.uld devote his many talents to providing a first-class education to Chinese students w.thin a strong university system. In particular,

关键词： A MAN FOR ALL SEASONS A PERSONAL MEMOIR OF w.IMIN ZHENG