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Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 634-643页

作者： Joshua ladau Eoin l.Brodie Nicola Falco Ishan Bansal Elijah B.Hoffman Marcin P.Joachimiak Ana M.Mora Angelica M.Walker Haruko M.Wainwright Yulun Wu Mirko Pavicic Daniel Jacobson Matthias Hess James B.Brown katrina Abuabara Departments of Computational Precision Health and Dermatology University of CaliforniaSan FranciscoCA94115USA Arva Intelligence Inc.Salt Lake CityUT84101USA Computational Biosciences Group Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Graduate Group in Biostatistics University of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Biosystems Data Science Environmental Genomics and Systems BiologyLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Center for Environmental Research and Community Health(CERCH) School of Public HealthUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education University of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN37996USA Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBostonMA02139USA Biosciences Oak Ridge National LaboratoryOak RidgeTN37830USA University of California DavisCA95616USA Statistics Department University of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of California Berkeley School of Public Health2121 Berkeley WayBerkeleyCA94720USA

Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios(IFR;the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people)when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an *** We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek *** demonstrate the robustness,accuracy,and precision of this framework,and apply it to the United States(U.S.)COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 *** The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision;for instance,when applied to simulated validation data sets,across counties,Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928,respectively,and they showed strong robustness to model *** the county-level estimators to the real,unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1,2020 to September 30,2020 from across the U.S.,we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69,with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of *** The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

关键词： Infection fatality ratio Infection fatality rate Noncentral hypergeometric distribution COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2

Prehospital transdermal glyceryl trinitrate for ultra- acute ischaemic stroke: data from the RIGHT- 2 randomised sham- controlled ambulance trial

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Stroke & Vascular Neurology 2024年第1期9卷 38-49,I0035-I0046页

作者： Jason Philip Appleton lisa J Woodhouse Craig S Anderson Sandeep Ankolekar lesley Cala Mark Dixon Timothy J England Kailash Krishnan Grant Mair Keith W Muir John Potter Christopher I Price Marc randall Thompson G Robinson Christine Roffe Else C Sandset Jeffrey l Saver Angela Shone Aloysius Niroshan Siriwardena Joanna M Wardlaw Nikola Sprigg Philip M Bath Stroke University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation TrustBirminghamUK Institute of Applied HealthResearch University of Birmingham College of Medical and Dental SciencesBirminghamUK Stroke Trials Unit Mental Health and Clinical NeurosciencesUniversity of NottinghamNottinghamUK Faculty of Medicine The George Institute for Global HealthSydneyNew South WalesAustralia The George Institute China at Peking University Health Science Center BeijingChina Neurology Royal Prince Alfred HospitalSydney Health PartnersSydneyNew South WalesAustralia Department of Neurology King's College Hospital NHS Foundation TrustLondonUK Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences University of Western AustraliaCrawleyWestern AustraliaAustralia East Midlands Ambulance Service NHS Trust NottinghamUK Stroke Queen's Medical CentreNottingham University Hospitals NHS TrustNottinghamUK Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences Dementia Research InstituteUniveristy of EdinburghEdinburghUK Institute of Neurology and Psychology University of GlasgowGlasgowUK Bob Champion Research and Education Building University of East AngliaNorwichUK Institute of Neuroscience Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK Department of Neurology Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS TrustLeedsUK Department of Cardiovascular Sciences and NIHR leicester Biomedical Research Centre University of LeicesterLeicesterUK Stroke Research in Stoke Institute for Science and Technology in MedicineKeele UniversityStoke-on TrentUK Department of Neurology Oslo University HospitalOsloNorway Research and Development Norwegian Air Ambulance FoundationOsloNorway Department of Neurology and Comprehensive Stroke Center David Geffen School of MedicineUCLALos AngelesCaliforniaUSA Research and Graduate Services University of NottinghamNottinghamUK Community and Health Research Unit University of LincolnLincolnUK

Background The effect of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate(GTN,a nitrovasodilator)on clinical outcome when administered before hospital admission in suspected stroke patients is ***,we assess the safety and efficacy of GTN in the prespecified subgroup of patients who had an ischaemic stroke within the Rapid Intervention with Glyceryl trinitrate in Hypertensive stroke Trial-2(RIGHT-2).Methods RIGHT-2 was an ambulance-based multicentre sham-controlled blinded-endpoint study with patients randomised within 4hours of *** primary outcome was a shift in scores on the modified Rankin scale(mRS)at day *** outcomes included death;a global analysis(Wei-lachin test)containing Barthel Index,EuroQol-5D,mRS,telephone interview for cognitive status-modified and Zung depression scale;and neuroimaging-determined‘brain frailty’*** were reported as n(%),mean(SD),median[IQR],adjusted common OR(acOR),mean difference or Mann-Whitney difference(MWD)with 95%*** 597 of 1149(52%)patients had a final diagnosis of ischaemic stroke;age 75(12)years,premorbid mRS>2107(18%),Glasgow Coma Scale 14(2)and time from onset to randomisation 67[45,108]***‘brain frailty’was common:median score 2[2,3](range 0–3).At day 90,GTN did not influence the primary outcome(acOR for increased disability 1.15,95%CI 0.85 to 1.54),death or global analysis(MWD 0.00,95%CI-0.10 to 0.09).In subgroup analyses,there were non-significant interactions suggesting GTN may be associated with more death and dependency in participants randomised within 1hour of symptom onset and in those with more severe *** In patients who had an ischaemic stroke,ultra-acute administration of transdermal GTN in the ambulance did not improve clinical outcomes in a population with more clinical and radiological frailty than seen in previous in-hospital *** IS AlREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC⇒Transdermal glyceryl trinitrate(GTN)was associat-ed with less death and dependency in those w

关键词： Glasgow nitrate random

Alcoholic pancreatitis:lessons from the liver

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2010年第11期16卷 1314-1320页

作者： Dahn l Clemens katrina J Mahan Department of Internal Medicine University of Nebraska Medical Center Research Service Veterans Administration Medical Center

The association between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis has been recognized for over 100 years. Despite the fact that this association is well recognized, the mechanisms by which alcohol abuse leads to pancreatic tissue damage are not entirely clear. Alcohol abuse is the major factor associated with pancreatitis in the Western world. Interestingly, although most cases of chronic pancreatitis and many cases of acute pancreatitis are associated with alcohol abuse, only a small percentage of individuals who abuse alcohol develop this disease. This situation is reminiscent of the association between alcohol abuse and the incidence of alcoholic liver disease. The liver and the pancreas are developmentally very closely related. Even though these two organs are quite different, they exhibit a number of general structural and functional similarities. Furthermore, the diseases mediated by alcohol abuse in these organs exhibit some striking similarities. The diseases in both organs are characterized by parenchymal cell damage, activation of stellate cells, aberrant wound healing, and fibrosis. Because of the similarities between the liver and the pancreas, and the alcohol-associated diseases of these organs, we may be able to apply much of the knowledge that we have gained regarding the effects of alcohol on the liver to the pancreas.

关键词： Alcoholic pancreatitis Alcohol metabolism Stellate cells Fibrosis

Practical Application of Altitude/Hypoxic Training for Olympic Medal Performance:The Team USA Experience

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Journal of Science in Sport and Exercise 2022年第4期4卷 358-370页

作者： randall l.Wilber United States Olympic&Paralympic Committee 1 Olympic PlazaColorado SpringsCO 80909USA

Although scientific conclusions remain equivocal,there is evidence-based research,as well as anecdotal support,suggesting that altitude training can enhance performance among Olympic level athletes,particularly in endurance *** appears to be due primarily to hypoxia-induced increases in total hemoglobin mass and subsequent improvements in maximal oxygen uptake and other factors contributing to aerobic *** less clear,it is possible that non-hematological adaptations may contribute secondarily to improvements in post-altitude *** physiological effects are most likely realized when the altitude exposure is of sufficient“hypoxic dose”to provide the necessary stimuli for performance-affecting changes to occur via hypoxia-inducible factor 1α(HIF-1α)and hypoxia-inducible factor 2α(HIF-2α)pathways and their downstream molecular *** USA has made a strong commitment over the past 20 years to utilizing altitude training for the enhancement of performance in elite athletes in preparation for the Olympic Games and World *** USA’s strongest medal-producing Olympic sports-USA Swimming and USA Track and Field-embraced altitude training several years ago,and they continue to be leaders within Team USA in the practical and successful application of altitude *** USA Swimming utilizes traditional“live high and train high”(lH+TH)altitude training,USA Track and Field tends more toward the use of the altitude training strategy whereby athletes live high(and potentially sleep higher,either naturally or via simulated altitude),while training high during moderate-intensity(lactate threshold 2)training sessions,and train low during high-intensity(>lactate threshold 2)training sessions(lH+TH_([lT])+Tl_([>lT])).Although USA Swim-ming and USA Track and Field have taken different approaches to altitude training,they have been equally successful at the Olympic Games and World Championships,both teams being ranked first

关键词： Hypoxia live high-train high live high-train low Intermittent hypoxic training Elite performance

Characterisation of colonic dysplasia-like epithelial atypia in murine colitis

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2016年第37期22卷 8334-8348页

作者： Sarron randall-Demllo Ruchira Fernando Terry Brain Sukhwinder Singh Sohal Anthony l Cook Nuri Guven Dale Kunde Kevin Spring Rajaraman Eri School of Health Sciences University of Tasmania LauncestonLaunceston TAS 7250 Australia Department of Pathology Launceston General Hospital LauncestonLaunceston TAS 7250 Australia Wicking Dementia Research and Educatio Ceutre University of Tasmania Hobart TAS 7005 Australia Division of Pharmacy School of Medicine University of Tasmania Hobart TAS 7005 Australia Breathe Well Centre of Research Excellence for Chronic Respiratory Disease and lung Ageing School of Medicine University of TasmaniaHobart TAS 7005Australia Medical Oncology Ingham Institute for Applied Medical Research LiverpoolLiverpool NSW 2753 Australia liverpool Clinical School Western Sydney University South West Sydney NSW 2052 Australia South West Sydney Clinical School University of New South WalesSydney NSW 2052 Australia

AIM To determine if exacerbation of pre-existing chronic colitis in Winnie(Muc2 mutant) mice induces colonic *** Winnie mice and C57Bl6 as a genotype control, were administered 1% w/v dextran sulphate sodium(DSS) orally, followed by drinking water alone in weeklong cycles for a total of three cycles. After the third cycle, mice were killed and colonic tissue collected for histological and immunohistochemical evaluation. Inflammation and severity of dysplasia in the colonic mucosa were assessed in H&E sections of the colon. Epithelial cell proliferation was assessed using Ki67 and aberrant β-catenin signalling assessed with enzyme-based immunohistochemistry. Extracted RNA from colonic segments was used for the analysis of gene expression using real-time quantitative PCR. Finally, the distribution of Cxcl5 was visualised using *** Compared to controls, Winnie mice exposed to three cycles of DSS displayed inflammation mostly confined to the distal-mid colon with extensive mucosal hyperplasia and regenerative atypia resembling epithelial dysplasia. Dysplasia-like changes were observed in 100% of Winnie mice exposed to DSS, with 55% of these animals displaying changes similar to high-grade dysplasia, whereas high-grade changes were absent in wild-type mice. Occasional penetration of the muscularis mucosae by atypical crypts was observed in 27% of Winnie mice after DSS. Atypical crypts however displayed no evidence of oncogenic nuclear β-catenin accumulation, regardless of histological severity. Expression of Cav1, Trp53 was differentially regulated in the distal colon of Winnie relative to wild-type mice. Expression of Myc and Ccl5 was increased by DSS treatment in Winnie only. Furthermore, increased Ccl5 expression correlated with increased complexity in abnormal crypts. While no overall difference in Cxcl5 mucosal expression was observed between treatment groups, epithelial Cxcl5 protein appeared to be diminished in the atypical e

关键词： Mice Mucin-2 Colon Colitis Dysplasia Dextran sulphate sodium

Stability and solubility improvement of Sompoi(Acacia concinna linn.) pod extract by topical microemulsion

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Asian Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences 2017年第4期12卷 386-393页

作者： Worrapan Poomanee Wantida Chaiyana R.randall Wickett Pimporn leelapornpisid Faculty of Pharmacy Chiang Mai UniversityChiang MaiThailand James l.Winkle College of Pharmacy University of CincinnatiCincinnatiUSA

The aim of this study was to enhance the solubility and stability of Acacia concinna extract by loading in a microemulsion for topical application. Both physical appearance and biological activities of the extract-loaded microemulsion were determined in comparison with the extract solution. Pseudoternary phase diagrams of three oil types including tea seed oil, grape seed oil, and sesame oil, together with polysorbate 85 or the mixture of polysorbate 85 and sorbitan oleate as surfactants, and absolute ethanol as a co-surfactant were constructed to optimize the microemulsion area. The selected microemulsion was then characterized for droplet size, polydispersity index, and viscosity. Tea seed oil exhibited the highest microemulsion area in the phase diagram because it had the highest unsaturated fatty acid content. The microemulsion composed of tea seed oil(5%), polysorbate 85(40%), ethanol(20%), and water(35%) exhibited Newtonian flow behavior with the droplet size and polydispersity index of 68.03 ± 1.09 nm and 0.44 ± 0.04, respectively. After 4% w/w of the extract was incorporated into the microemulsion, larger droplets size was observed(239.77 ± 12.69 nm)with a lower polydispersity index(0.37 ± 0.02). After storage in various conditions, both physical appearances and the stability of biological activity of the extract-loaded microemulsion were improved compared to the solution. Therefore, the A. concinna loaded microemulsion may be a promising carrier for further development into a topical formulation and clinical trials for pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical applications are also suggested.

关键词： Microemulsions Stability Acacia concinna linn Antioxidant activity lipid peroxidation Antityrosinase activity

Multilocus phylogeny suggests a distinct species status for the Nepal population of Assam macaques(Macaca assamensis):implications for evolution and conservation

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Zoological Research 2021年第1期42卷 3-13页

作者： laxman Khanal Mukesh Kumar Chalise Peng-Fei Fan randall CKyes Xue-long Jiang Central Department of Zoology Institute of Science and TechnologyTribhuvan UniversityKathmandu 44613Nepal State Key laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution Kunming Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesKunmingYunnan 650203China Nepal Biodiversity Research Society(NEBORS) Lalitpur 23513Nepal School of life Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510275China Department of Psychology Global Healthand AnthropologyCenter for Global Field Studyand Washington National Primate Research CenterUniversity of WashingtonSeattle 98195USA

Phylogenetic relationships within the sinica-group of macaques based on morphological,behavioral,and molecular characteristics have remained *** Nepal population of Assam macaques(Macaca assamensis)(NPAM),the westernmost population of the species,is morphologically distinct but has never been used in phylogenetic ***,the phylogenetic relationship of NPAM with other congeners was tested using multiple mitochondrial and Ychromosomal *** divergence times and evolutionary genetic distances among macaques were also *** revealed two major mitochondrial DNA clades of macaques under the sinica-group:the first clade included ***,***,and eastern subspecies of Assam macaque(*** assamensis);the second clade included *** together with species from the eastern and central Himalaya,namely,***,***,and *** the second-clade species,NPAM was the first to diverge from the other members of the clade around 1.9 million years *** results revealed that NPAM is phylogenetically distinct from the eastern Assam macaques and closer to other species and hence may represent a separate *** of its phylogenetic distinctiveness,isolated distribution,and small population size,the Nepal population of sinica-group macaques warrants detailed taxonomic revision and high conservation priority.

关键词： Himalaya Macaques Paraphyletic sinica-group Taxonomy

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关注养禽业中抗生素的使用及其影响

中国家禽 2006年第18期28卷 41-47页

作者： randall S Singer Charles l Hofacre

在过去的十几年里,抗生素在禽类生产中的使用方式发生了很大的变化。原因之一是取消某些抗生素的使用,如美国取消氟喹诺酮在家禽的使用以及欧盟禁用抗生素促生长剂。另外,许多大型禽业公司自发减少抗生素促生长剂的使用。抗生素使用发... 详细信息

在过去的十几年里,抗生素在禽类生产中的使用方式发生了很大的变化。原因之一是取消某些抗生素的使用,如美国取消氟喹诺酮在家禽的使用以及欧盟禁用抗生素促生长剂。另外,许多大型禽业公司自发减少抗生素促生长剂的使用。抗生素使用发生变化的主要动力还是来自于与这项措施息息相关的公共健康问题。

关键词：抗生素促生长剂养禽业氟喹诺酮健康问题发生变化禽类家禽

Prognostic implications of type 2 myocardial infarctions

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World Journal of Cardiovascular Diseases 2012年第4期2卷 237-241页

作者： Hazim El-Haddad Elijah Robinson katrina Swett Gretchen l. Wells Department of Internal Medicine-Section on Cardiology Wake Forest School of Medicine Winston-Salem USA

Purpose: A type 2 myocardial infarction (MI) is due to ischemia from increased oxygen demand or decreased supply. It is not an infrequent complication following non-cardiac surgery or in the setting of acute medical illness. The purpose of this study was to determine whether type 2 MIs had a worse prognosis than a type 1 MI. Methods: The hospital database of a large terti-ary-level academic medical center was queried for all patients with a troponin I ≥ 1.6 ng/ml during a one-year period. The outcomes of patients with a type 2 MI were compared to those with a type 1 MI. Results: This retrospective study found that a type 2 MI is more lethal than the usual type 1 MI, particularly among women and the elderly. There was no statistical difference in outcomes between those that occurred in the post-operative setting compared to those that occurred in the setting of acute medical illness. Conclusions: Type 2 MIs are common and are associated with increased mortality, as compared with type 1 MIs. To date, no guidelines exist for the management of this type of MI. Further research into underlying mechanisms resulting in type 2 MI as well as potential treatment strategies is needed.

关键词： Type 2 Myocardial Infarction Postoperative Myocardial Infarction Troponin Sepsis