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A New Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Short-Term Climate Prediction by Performing Classification Prediction and Regression Prediction Simultaneously

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第6期36卷 853-865页

作者： Deqian LI Shujuan HU jinyuan guo Kai WANG Chenbin GAO Siyi WANG Wenping HE Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhouUniversityLanzhou 730000 School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082

Machine learning methods are effective tools for improving short-term climate prediction.However,commonly used methods often carry out classification and regression prediction modeling separately and independently.Such a single modeling approach may obtain inconsistent prediction results in classification and regression and thus may not meet the needs of practical applications well.To address this issue,this study proposes a selective Naive Bayes ensemble model(SENB-EM)by introducing causal effect and voting strategy on Naive Bayes.The new model can not only screen effective predictors but also perform classification and regression prediction simultaneously.After being applied to the area prediction of summer western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from 2008 to 2021,it is found that the accuracy classification score(a metric to assess the overall classification prediction accuracy)and the time correlation coefficient(TCC)of SENB-EM can reach 1.0 and 0.81,respectively.After integrating the results of different models[including multiple linear regression ensemble model(MLR-EM),SENB-EM,and Chinese Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System(CMME)used by National Climate Center(NCC)]for 2017-2021,the TCC of the ensemble results of SENB-EM and CMME can reach 0.92(the highest result among them).This indicates that the prediction results of the summer WNPSH area provided by SENB-EM have a high reference value for the real-time prediction.It is worth noting that,except for the numerical prediction results,the SENB-EM model can also give the range of numerical prediction intervals and predictions for anomalous degrees of the WNPSH area,thus providing more reference information for meteorological forecasters.Overall,as a new hybrid machine learning model,the SENB-EM has a good prediction ability;the approach of performing classification prediction and regression prediction simultaneously through integration is informative to short-term climate prediction.

关键词： selective Naive Bayes ensemble model machine learning short-term climate prediction classification prediction regression prediction western North Pacific subtropical high

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First Imported Case of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariant BA.5—Shanghai Municipality,China,May 13,2022

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China CDC weekly 2022年第30期4卷 665-666页

作者： Hui Jiang Changcheng Wu Wenbo Xu Hongyou Chen Fanghao Fang Min Chen Chaonan Wang Lingyue Yuan Huanyu Wu Zheng Teng jinyuan guo Yaxu Zheng Xihong Lyu Xuefei Qiao Guizhen Wu Wenjie Tan Xi Zhang Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention ShanghaiChina National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention China CDCBeijingChina Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention ShanghaiChina.

On April 27,2022,an international flight KL857 from Amsterdam,the Netherlands arrived at Pudong International Airport,Shanghai Municipality.Passengers were transferred to the quarantine hotel for a routine 14-day medical observation in Songjiang District and regularly tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2).One of the passengers(a 37-year-old Chinese male)was reported positive and diagnosed as a mild case on April 29.The case set out from Uganda(flight KL535)on April 25 and transferred at Amsterdam,the Netherlands on April 26 and Seoul,the Republic of Korea(KL857)on April 27.The patient has been vaccinated in four doses against coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)(Beijing Institute of Biological Products Co.,Ltd)in China and Uganda.After diagnosis,he was transferred to Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center for treatment.He recovered after treatment and was discharged on May 12.

关键词： transferred routine doses

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川陈皮素对单纯性肥胖症大鼠肠道菌群和短链脂肪酸的影响

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中国病理生理杂志 2024年第1期40卷 148-156页

作者：呙燕郑近园张佳庹余兴张梦苹刘霞重庆三峡医药高等专科学校重庆404120 长江师范学院重庆408100

目的:探讨川陈皮素(nobiletin,NOB)对高脂饮食诱导的单纯性肥胖症大鼠肠道菌群及其产物短链脂肪酸(short-chain fatty acids,SCFAs)的影响。方法:将22只SD大鼠随机分为对照组(6只)和模型组(16只)。采用高脂饮食喂养制备单纯性肥胖症大... 详细信息

目的:探讨川陈皮素(nobiletin,NOB)对高脂饮食诱导的单纯性肥胖症大鼠肠道菌群及其产物短链脂肪酸(short-chain fatty acids,SCFAs)的影响。方法:将22只SD大鼠随机分为对照组(6只)和模型组(16只)。采用高脂饮食喂养制备单纯性肥胖症大鼠模型,将造模成功的大鼠随机分为模型组(6只)和川陈皮素组(6只)。川陈皮素组给予川陈皮素溶液(100 mg·kg^(-1)·d^(-1))灌胃治疗,连续干预21 d。隔天记录各组大鼠体质量,采用苏木精-伊红(hematoxylin-eosin,HE)染色法观察各组大鼠肝脏和脂肪组织病理学变化,采用全自动生化分析仪检测各组大鼠血脂水平,以16S核糖体RNA(ribosomal RNA,rRNA)测序法分析各组大鼠肠道菌群的变化,应用高效液相色谱-质谱(high-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry,LC-MS)联用方法检测大鼠SCFAs含量。结果:与对照组相比,模型组大鼠体质量显著升高(P<0.01),脂肪细胞直径明显增大,出现肝细胞空泡化现象并伴有脂肪变性和炎症浸润,大鼠总胆固醇(total cholesterol,TC)和甘油三酯(triglyceride,TG)水平显著升高(P<0.05)。在肠道菌群的变化方面,在门水平上,模型组大鼠厚壁菌门上升,拟杆菌门下降;在属水平上,模型组大鼠拟杆菌属、乳杆菌属、经黏液真杆菌属显著下降,大肠杆菌属显著升高。SCFAs中丙酸和丁酸水平下降。经治疗后,与模型组相比,川陈皮素组大鼠体质量显著下降(P<0.05),脂肪细胞直径明显缩小,肝细胞空泡现象和脂质积累减轻,大鼠TG和TC水平显著降低(P<0.05);在门水平上,川陈皮素组大鼠厚壁菌门下降,拟杆菌门上升;在属水平上,拟杆菌属、乳杆菌属、经黏液真杆菌属显著升高,大肠杆菌属显著下降;SCFAs中丙酸和丁酸含量均显著升高(P<0.05)。结论:NOB能够降低肥胖症大鼠体质量,调节大鼠肠道菌群的结构以及SCFAs的含量,改善脂质代谢,从而发挥抗肥胖的作用。

关键词：川陈皮素肥胖肠道菌群短链脂肪酸

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EconoDUAL封装、母线电压800V的1200A IGBT功率模块设计与开发

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电源学报 2024年第3期22卷 72-77页

作者：回晓双宁圃奇范涛郭新华傅金源黄珂中国科学院大学北京100049 中国科学院电工研究所北京100190 电力电子与电气驱动重点实验室(中国科学院电工研究所) 北京100190 华侨大学厦门362021 浙江芯丰科技有限公司台州317700

提高车规级功率模块的功率密度对电动汽车的性能具有重要意义,而传统功率模块内部采用的二维布局杂散电感大,限制了开关速度与母线电压,影响功率密度的提高。为此,以EconoDUAL封装的IGBT功率模块为对象,使用叠层DBC的方法进行三维布局设... 详细信息

提高车规级功率模块的功率密度对电动汽车的性能具有重要意义,而传统功率模块内部采用的二维布局杂散电感大,限制了开关速度与母线电压,影响功率密度的提高。为此,以EconoDUAL封装的IGBT功率模块为对象,使用叠层DBC的方法进行三维布局设计,开发出了1200 V/1200 A的IGBT功率模块;详细介绍了所提功率模块的布局结构,与传统二维布局方法相比,杂散电感下降了58%;同时,对功率模块进行电气性能测试,通过了母线电压800 V下脉冲电流为1200 A的双脉冲实验,证明了模块功率密度的提高。为了在提高功率密度的情况下不影响散热性能,功率模块底部使用了水冷PinFin散热器,并对其进行了散热仿真和结-水热阻的测试,结果表明,IGBT热阻为0.084 K/W,二极管热阻为0.124 K/W,与同封装下商用1200 V/900 A模块相比并无明显差异,证明了所提设计方法的正确性及有效性。

关键词：功率模块电动汽车 IGBT功率模块杂散电感热阻

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人呼吸道合胞病毒SH蛋白混合多肽免疫原性初步研究

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病毒学报 2024年第2期40卷 293-301页

作者：郭宏宋洋李海时雨晴胡宏俏江洁郭晋源毛乃颖曹蕾张燕传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室国家卫生健康委医学病毒和病毒病重点实验室中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所北京102206

本研究旨在探讨人呼吸道合胞病毒(Human respiratory syncytial virus,HRSV)小疏水蛋白(Small hydrophobic protein,SH)T细胞表位肽的免疫原性和保护效果。通过设计并合成覆盖SH蛋白序列全长的10条多肽,利用HRSV感染小鼠的脾淋巴细胞进... 详细信息

本研究旨在探讨人呼吸道合胞病毒(Human respiratory syncytial virus,HRSV)小疏水蛋白(Small hydrophobic protein,SH)T细胞表位肽的免疫原性和保护效果。通过设计并合成覆盖SH蛋白序列全长的10条多肽,利用HRSV感染小鼠的脾淋巴细胞进行IFN-γ-酶联免疫斑点(Enzyme-linked immunospot assay, ELISpot)的检测,筛选出5条能显著刺激IFN-γ产生的SH蛋白T细胞表位多肽。将其与CpG和磷酸铝(AL)佐剂配制成混合多肽疫苗,两次皮下给药的方式免疫C57BL/6J小鼠,评价其免疫原性和保护效果。结果显示,与佐剂对照组相比,SH蛋白混合多肽疫苗可以诱导免疫后的小鼠产生抗原特异性IgG抗体和Th1偏向的T细胞免疫应答,降低HRSV感染后肺病毒载量,并减轻肺脏病理损伤。研究结果表明,SH蛋白混合多肽通过免疫小鼠可以引起良好的免疫原性,并保护小鼠抵抗HRSV的感染。为进一步研究基于SH蛋白的HRSV多肽疫苗提供了科学依据。

关键词：人呼吸道合胞病毒小疏水蛋白多肽细胞免疫

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Impact of the PV Location in Distribution Networks on Network Power Losses and Voltage Fluctuations with PSO Analysis

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CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems 2022年第2期8卷 523-534页

作者： Puyu Wang Fangyu Liang jinyuan Song Ningqiang Jiang Xiao-Ping Zhang Ling guo Xinxin Gu School of Automation Nanjing University of Science&Technology(NUST)Nanjing 210094JiangsuChina School of Engineering University of BirminghamEdgbastonBirmingham B152TTUnited Kingdom Nanjing GWDR Relays Technologies Co. Nanjing 210032JiangsuChina

Increased grid integration of photovoltaic(PV)has aggravated the uncertainty of distribution network operations.For a distribution network with PV,the impact of the PV location on the network power losses and voltage fluctuations is investigated with analytical derivations reflected by the line impedance.Optimization approaches of the PV location with consideration of two aspects,i.e.,minimum network power losses and minimum voltage fluctuations,are analyzed.A particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is used to synthesize an optimal compromised solution so as to determine the PV location.A 10 kV distribution network with one PV is established on the time-domain simulation environment PSCAD/EMTDC.The simulation results justify the theoretical analysis and indicate that when the active power of the PV is more/less than twice that of the overall loads/end loads,the network power losses and node voltage fluctuations are both minimum when the PV is integrated into the head/tail end of the network.When the active power of the PV is between the above two conditions,nodes t/f can be identified for the integration of the PV between the head/end nodes of the network to achieve the minimum network power losses/voltage fluctuations,respectively.The effectiveness of the proposed optimization approach is verified and can provide a reference for selecting the PV location in the distribution network.

关键词： Distribution network network power losses particle swarm optimization(PSO) PV location voltage fluctuations

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Antibody Response to COVID-19 Virus--Heilongjiang Province and Gansu Province,China,2020

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China CDC weekly 2020年第34期2卷 645-650页

作者： Naiying Mao Zhen Zhu Shuangli Zhu Deshan Yu Jun Xu Aili Cui Lei Cao jinyuan guo Huiling Wang Dongyan Wang Dongmei Yan Yang Song Qian Yang Zhongyi Jiang Hui Zhang Chang Shu Ming Yang Yanhai Wang Jinbo Xiao Zhenzhi Han Yong Zhang Yan Zhang Wenbo Xu NHC Key Laboratory of Medical Virology and Viral Diseases National Institute for Viral Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention LanzhouGansuChina Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention HaerbinHeilongjiangChina

What is already known about this topic?Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a global pandemic,while the profile of antibody response against the COVID-19 virus has not been well clarified.What is added by this report?In this study,210 serum samples from 160 confirmed COVID-19 cases with different disease severities were recruited.The IgM,IgA,IgG,and neutralizing antibodies(NAb)against COVID-19 virus were determined.Our findings indicated that four antibodies could be detectable at low levels within 2 weeks of disease onset,then rapidly increasing and peaking from the 3^(rd) to 5^(th) Weeks.NAb decreased between 5^(th) and 9^(th) Weeks,and a higher IgM/IgA level was observed in the groups with mild/moderate severity within 2 weeks(p<0.05),while all 4 types of antibodies were higher in the group with severe/critical severity after 4 weeks(p<0.05).What are the implications for public health practice?Our study on the dynamics of serological antibody responses against COVID-19 virus among COVID-19 patients complements the recognition regarding the humoral immune response to COVID-19 virus infection.The findings will help in the interpretation of antibody detection results for COVID-19 patients and be beneficial for the evaluation of vaccination effects.

关键词： COV finding fir

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High-performance magnesium ion asymmetric Ppy@FeOOH//Mn3O4 micro-supercapacitor

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2022年第9期31卷 352-360,I0010页

作者： Xueliang Lv Yaxiong Zhang Xijuan Li Zhiye Fan guo Liu Wenjian Zhang jinyuan Zhou Erqing Xie Zhenxing Zhang Key Laboratory for Magnetism and Magnetic Materials of the Ministry of Education School of Physical Science and TechnologyLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina

Micro-supercapacitors(MSCs)are attractive electrochemical energy storage devices owing to their high power density and extended cycling stability.However,relatively low areal energy density still hinders their practical applications.Here,an asymmetric Mg ion MSC with promising high energy density is fabricated.Firstly,indium tin oxide(ITO)NWs were synthesized by chemical vapor deposition as the excellent current collector.Subsequently,nanostructured Mn_(3)O_(4)and Ppy@FeOOH were deposited on the laser-engraved interdigital structure ITO NWs electrodes as the positive and negative electrodes,respectively.Beneficial from the hierarchical micro-nano structures of active materials,high conductive electron transport pathways,and charge-balanced asymmetric electrodes,the obtained MSC possesses a high potential window of 2.2 V and a high areal capacitance of 107.3 mF cm^(-2)at 0.2 mA cm^(-2).The insitu XRD,VSM,and ex-situ XPS results reveal that the primary energy storage mechanism of Mg ions in negative FeOOH electrode is Mg ions de-/intercalation and phase transition reaction of FeOOH.Furthermore,the MSC exhibits a high specific energy density of 71.18μWh cm^(-2)at a power density of 0.22 mWh cm^(-2)and capacitance retention of 85%after 5000 cycles with unvaried Coulombic efficiency.These results suggest promising applications of our MSC in miniaturized energy storage devices.

关键词： CVD Iron hydroxide Electrochemical deposition Asymmetric micro-supercapacitor Laser engraving

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高温变形对Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)ZrTi)难熔高熵合金微观组织的影响

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特种铸造及有色合金 2024年第3期44卷 294-298页

作者：董福宇关金源张悦申向阳郭子鹤黄宏军袁晓光沈阳工业大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳110870

为了解决铸态难熔高熵合金中枝晶粗大及元素偏析问题,通过非自耗真空电弧熔炼炉制备出Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)ZrTi)难熔高熵合金,在Gleeble-3500试验热模拟机上进行了不同温度的单轴高温压缩试验,探索了变形温度对Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)Z... 详细信息

为了解决铸态难熔高熵合金中枝晶粗大及元素偏析问题,通过非自耗真空电弧熔炼炉制备出Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)ZrTi)难熔高熵合金,在Gleeble-3500试验热模拟机上进行了不同温度的单轴高温压缩试验,探索了变形温度对Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)ZrTi)难熔高熵合金微观组织的影响。结果表明,高温变形后,Al_(0.1)(MoNbTa_(0.7)ZrTi)难熔高熵合金仍为体心立方双相固溶体结构,并未改变其相组成。元素偏析现象随着变形温度的升高而逐渐减弱,同时合金组织变均匀,枝晶晶粒尺寸变小。

关键词：难熔高熵合金高温变形体心立方结构枝晶偏析

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五参汤加减治疗对心梗患者PCI术后血液流变学、心功能的影响

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现代中医药 2024年第1期44卷 56-61页

作者：王晶郭晋源杨海龙李刚张云锋宝鸡高新医院陕西宝鸡721000 宜君县人民医院陕西宜君727299

目的观察急性心肌梗死患者经皮冠状动脉介入术(PCI)后给予五参汤加减治疗对患者心功能、血液流变学的影响。方法选取2020年4月—2022年5月我院收治的进行PCI治疗的急性心肌梗死患者88例,随机分为对照组(44例,术后常规西药治疗)、五参汤... 详细信息

目的观察急性心肌梗死患者经皮冠状动脉介入术(PCI)后给予五参汤加减治疗对患者心功能、血液流变学的影响。方法选取2020年4月—2022年5月我院收治的进行PCI治疗的急性心肌梗死患者88例,随机分为对照组(44例,术后常规西药治疗)、五参汤组(44例,术后常规西药+五参汤加减治疗),测量比较两组患者治疗前后血液流变学、心功能、血清炎性因子、氧化应激指标,记录心血管不良事件及不良反应发生情况。结果治疗后五参汤组3项血液流变学指标均显著低于对照组(P0.05)。结论五参汤加减用于急性心肌梗死PCI术后治疗可显著改善患者血液流变学及心功能,降低PCI术后MACE发生率,给药安全性高,其生效机制可能与下调炎性因子,减轻氧化应激反应有关。

关键词：急性心肌梗死经皮冠状动脉介入术心功能血液流变学炎性因子

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