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Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s

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Science Bulletin 2016年第5期61卷 416-424页

作者： Yali Zhu Tao wang huijun wang Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Global warming accelerated after the late1970 s and slowed down after the late 1990 s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional *** hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide (RFCO_2) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO_2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970 s and 1990 s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO_2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO_2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990 s *** PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions(negativepositive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2(53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO(33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO_2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2(PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 %(37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO_2 effects for the late 1990 s shift.

关键词： Anthropogenic forcing Natural decadal variability Global warming Surface temperature Geopotential height

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A Possible Approach for Decadal Prediction of the PDO

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第1期34卷 63-72页

作者： Yanyan HUANG huijun wang Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is a leading mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North *** PDO prediction can be beneficial in many aspects because of its global and regional ***,current climate models cannot provide satisfied decadal prediction of the PDO and related decadal variability of sea surface *** this study,we propose a new approach,i.e.,the increment method,to predicting the PDO.A series of validations demonstrate that the increment method is effective in improving decadal prediction of PDO and it can well capture the phase change of PDO with high *** prediction processes include three ***,a five-year smoothing is performed;second,effective preceding predictors for PDO are selected,with all predictors and predictands in the form of a three-year decadal increment(DI);third,the prediction model is set up for PDO three-year decadal increment(DI_PDO),and PDO prediction can be obtained by adding the predicted DI_PDO to the observed PDO three years *** new method can also be applied for decadal climate prediction of other modes(e.g.,Atlantic multidecadal oscillation)and predictands(e.g.,sea surface temperature).

关键词： Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) decadal prediction increment method

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Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer, muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area, China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第01期 20-25页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun huijun wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation Center on forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory

本研究将两个新模型应用于位于中国西北干旱半干旱区的宁夏地区地下水深度预测.这两个模型将改进的蜣螂优化(DBO)算法与两个深度学习模型相结合,即多头注意力-卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络和多头注意力-回旋神经网络-门控递归单元.带有... 详细信息

本研究将两个新模型应用于位于中国西北干旱半干旱区的宁夏地区地下水深度预测.这两个模型将改进的蜣螂优化(DBO)算法与两个深度学习模型相结合,即多头注意力-卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络和多头注意力-回旋神经网络-门控递归单元.带有DBO的模型预测结果表现出更大的相关系数(R),残差预测偏差(RPD)和较低的均方根误差(RMSE),预测结果更好.此外,与DBO模型相比,改进后的DBO模型的R和RPD增加了1.5%以上, RMSE降低了1.8%以上,表明预测结果更好.与传统的统计模型多元线性回归模型相比,深度学习模型具有更好的预测性能.

关键词：地下水深度多头注意力机制改进的蜣螂优化算法 CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU 宁夏

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A Trend towards a Stable Warm and Windless State of the Surface Weather Conditions in Northern and Northeastern China during 1961–2014

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第6期34卷 713-726页

作者： Bo SUN huijun wang Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at Manoa Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study investigates the trends in the mean state and the day-to-day variability （DDV） of the surface weather conditions over northern and northeastern China （NNEC） during 1961-2014 using CN05.1 observational data. In this study, we show that the surface temperature （wind speed） has increased （decreased） over NNEC and that the DDV of the surface temperatures and wind speeds has decreased, indicating a trend towards a stable warm and windless state of the surface weather conditions over NNEC. This finding implies a trend towards more persistent hot and windless episodes, which threaten human health and aggravate environmental problems. The trends are also examined in reanalysis data. Both the ERA-40 and the NCEP data show an increasing （decreasing） trend in the mean state of the surface temperatures （wind speeds）. However, the reanalysis data show a consistent decreasing trend in the DDV of the surface weather conditions only in the spring. The underlying reason for the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions is further analyzed, focusing on the spring season. Essentially, the decreased DDV of the surface weather conditions can be attributed to a decrease in synoptic-scale wave activity, which is caused by a decrease in the baroclinic instability. There is a contrasting change in the baroclinic instability over East Asia, showing a decreasing （increasing） trend north （south） of 40°N. This contrasting change in the baroclinic instability is primarily caused by a tropospheric cooling zone over East Asia at approximately 40°N, which influences the meridional temperature gradient over East Asia.

关键词： day-to-day variability surface weather condition trend northern and northeastern China

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Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northeastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 889-897页

作者： ZHOU Mengzi wang huijun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 （period 1）, 2040-69 （period 2）, and 2070-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2005） were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.

关键词： northeastern China statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty

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Pan-Asian monsoon and its definition,principal modes of precipitation,and variability features

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Science China Earth Sciences 2012年第5期55卷 787-795页

作者： GAO Ya wang huijun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Here we propose a new concept,the Pan-Asian monsoon,and use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and linear regression approach to define it and to analyze the monsoon-related rainfall *** Pan-Asian monsoon is referred to as the monsoon occurred over the great region (60°E-140°E,10°S-35°N),consisting of the Indian monsoon,Southeast Asian monsoon,East Asian monsoon,and Western North Pacific *** Pan-Asian monsoon region is the principal region of the summer rainfall over the Asian-Pacific monsoon region and is also water vapor channel connecting several Asian-Pacific sub-monsoon *** first EOF mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon precipitation (PAMP_F) shows a meridional tripole pattern with more (less) rainfall zonal belt over the Bay of Bengal (BOB),the Indo-China Peninsula,South China,the South China Sea (SCS),Philippines and the Philippine Sea,and less (more) rainfall on both *** first rainfall mode is associated with the weakened Somali cross-equatorial flows,enhanced southerly over the eastern coast of Australia,and strengthened westerly over the tropical *** first EOF rainfall mode shows a close relationship with the simultaneous El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific South America (PSA).The preceding spring and simultaneous summer Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the western Hemisphere (AAO in Pacific) has a connection with the first summer rainfall mode of the Pan-Asian *** the main influence factors are over the Pacific,the first rainfall mode is named as the Pacific *** second mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon precipitation (PAMP_S) shows a dipole pattern from northeast to southwest,which is associated with the weakened Somali cross-equatorial flows,enhanced easterlies over the Maritime Continent,and weak easterly over the tropical *** second rainfall model has a close relationship with the atmospheric convection activity and the sea surface temperature variability over the Maritime Conti

关键词： Pan-Asian monsoon precipitation ENSO teleconnections

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Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第5期33卷 559-570页

作者： Donglin GUO huijun wang Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution ***, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM（VFRGCM） and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that：（1） The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation.（2） The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method.（3） The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall,the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future,and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

关键词： climate simulation dynamical downscaling GCM RCM

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Projection of Landslides in China during the 21st Century under the RCP8.5 Scenario

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第1期33卷 138-148页

作者： Shuangshuang HE Jun wang huijun wang Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

More and more rainstorms and other extreme weather events occur in the context of global warming, which may increase the risks of landslides. In this paper, changes of landslides in the 21 st century of China under the high emission scenario RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway) are projected by using a statistical landslide forecasting model and the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical landslide model is based on an improved landslide susceptibility map of China and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold. First, it is driven by observed rainfall and RegCM4.0 rainfall in 1980–99, and it can reproduce the spatial distribution of landslides in China pretty ***, it is used to forecast the landslide changes over China in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results consistently reveal that landslides will increase significantly in most areas of China, especially in the southeastern, northeastern, and western parts of Northwest China. The change pattern at the end of the 21 st century is generally consistent with that in the middle of the 21 st century, but with larger increment and magnitude. In terms of the probability,the proportion of grid points that are very likely and extremely likely to experience landslides will also increase.

关键词： landslides projection statistical landslide forecasting model regional climate model

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Relationship between Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy and Eurasian Winter Cold Events

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第6期37卷 652-661页

作者： Xinping XU Shengping HE huijun wang Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The profound impact of solar irradiance variations on the decadal variability of Earth’s climate has been investigated by previous ***,it remains a challenge to quantify the energetic particle precipitation(EPP)influence on the surface climate,which is an emerging research *** solar wind is a source of magnetospheric EPP,and the total energy input from the solar wind into Earth’s magnetosphere(Ein)shows remarkable interdecadal and interannual variability.B ased on the new Ein index,this study reveals a significant interannual relationship between the annual mean Einand Eurasian cold extremes in the subsequent *** frequent cold events are observed over Eurasia(primarily north of 50°N)following the higher-than-normal Ein activity in the previous year,accompanied by more frequent cold events over northern Africa,and vice *** response pattern shows great resemblance to the first empirical orthogonal function of the variability of cold extremes over Eurasia,with a spatial correlation coefficient of *** pronounced intensification of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation events and poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track associated with the anomalously higher Ein favor the anomalous extreme atmospheric circulation events,and thus less frequent extreme cold temperatures over northern Eurasia on the interannual time *** is further hypothesized that the wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere and troposphere is favorable for the connection of Ein signals to tropospheric circulation and climate in the following winter.

关键词： Eurasian interannual winter

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Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1706-1722页

作者： Wenyue HE Bo SUN huijun wang Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC)is a critical factor for East Asian winter *** study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying *** on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method,the leading mode(EOF1,R2=28.9%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China;the second mode(EOF2,R2=24.3%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern ***1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT)branches over northeastern China and eastern China,which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS)area in the preceding October-November(ON).EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China,which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern *** circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature *** SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC,and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

关键词： interannual variability leading modes watervapor content East Asia

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