Projection of Landslides in China during the 21st Century under the RCP8.5 Scenario

作     者：Shuangshuang HE Jun WANG Huijun WANG 

作者机构：Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology 

出 版 物：《Journal of Meteorological Research》 (气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第33卷第1期

页      面：138-148页

核心收录：

学科分类：081803[工学-地质工程] 0707[理学-海洋科学] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0824[工学-船舶与海洋工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41605084) External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Cooperation,Chinese Academy of Sciences(134111KYSB20150016) 

主　　题：landslides projection statistical landslide forecasting model regional climate model 

摘      要：More and more rainstorms and other extreme weather events occur in the context of global warming, which may increase the risks of landslides. In this paper, changes of landslides in the 21 st century of China under the high emission scenario RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway) are projected by using a statistical landslide forecasting model and the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical landslide model is based on an improved landslide susceptibility map of China and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold. First, it is driven by observed rainfall and RegCM4.0 rainfall in 1980–99, and it can reproduce the spatial distribution of landslides in China pretty ***, it is used to forecast the landslide changes over China in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results consistently reveal that landslides will increase significantly in most areas of China, especially in the southeastern, northeastern, and western parts of Northwest China. The change pattern at the end of the 21 st century is generally consistent with that in the middle of the 21 st century, but with larger increment and magnitude. In terms of the probability,the proportion of grid points that are very likely and extremely likely to experience landslides will also increase.