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Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 146-147页

作者： Hui Wan jing-An Cui guo-jing yang Jiangsu Key Lab for NSLSCS School of Mathematical SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingChina Department of Mathematics School of ScienceBeijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijingChina Hainan Medical University Haikou571199China Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Socinstrasse 57BaselCH-4002Switzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland

Background In December 2019,an outbreak of coronavirus disease(later named as COVID-19)was identified in Wuhan,China and,later on,detected in other parts of *** aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures,estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical *** A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is ***-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province,including the cumulative confirmed cases,the cumulative deaths,newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020,were archived from the National Health Commission of China(NHCC).We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method and estimate the control reproduction number(Rc),as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio-Re(t),of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei *** The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36(95%CI:3.20–3.64)and Re(t)has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020,which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 ***,our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected,and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or *** calculating the effective reproduction ratio,we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30%of the normal level by April,*** To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly,it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures,including travel restriction

关键词： COVID-19 Risk estimation and prediction Intervention measure Contact tracing Control reproduction number Effective daily reproduction ratio Mathematical model

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Verifying the hypothesis of disconnection syndrome in patients with conduction aphasia using diffusion tensor imaging

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Neural Regeneration Research 2007年第4期2卷 217-220页

作者： Yanqin guo jing Xu Yindong yang Department of Neurology Hongqi Hospital Affiliated to Mudanjiang Medical College Mudanjiang 157011 Heilongjiang Province China

BACKGROUND： It is thought in disconnection theory that connection of anterior and posterior language function areas, i.e. the lesion of arcuate fasciculus causes conduction aphasia. OBJECTIVE： To verify the theory of disconnection elicited by repetition disorder in patients with conduction aphasia by comparing the characteristics of diffusion tensor imaging between healthy persons and patients with conduction aphasia. DESIGN： Case-control observation. SETTING： Department of Neurology, Hongqi Hospital Affiliated to Mudanjiang Medical College. PARTICIPANTS： Five male patients with cerebral infarction-involved arcuate fasciculus conduction aphasia, averaged （43±2） years, who hospitalized in the Department of Neurology, Hongqi Hospital Affiliated to Mudanjiang Medical College from February 2004 to February 2005 were involved in this experiment. The involved patients were all confirmed as cerebral infarction by skull CT and MRI, and met the diagnosis criteria revised in 1995 4^th Cerebrovascular Conference. They were examined by the method of Aphasia Battery of Chinese （ABC） edited by Surong Gao. The results were poorer than auditory comprehension disproportionately, and consistented with the mode of conduction aphasia. Another 5 male healthy persons, averaged （43 ± 1 ） years, who were physicians receiving further training in the Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital were also involved in this experiment. Informed consents of detected items were obtained from all the subjects. METHODS： All the subjects were performed handedness assessment with assessment criteria of handedness formulated by Department of Neurology, First Hospital Affiliated to Beijing Medical University. Arcuate fasciculus of involved patients and health controls were analyzed with diffusion tensor imaging （DTI） and divided into 3 parts （anterior, middle and posterior segments） for determining FA value （mean value was obtained after three times of measurements）, and a comparison of

关键词： aphasia, conduction diffusion magnetic resonance imaging

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Knowledge of, attitudes towards, and practice relating to schistosomiasis in two subtypes of a mountainous region of the People’s Republic of China

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2014年第1期3卷 145-155页

作者： Lu Liu guo-jing yang Hong-Ru Zhu Kun yang Lin Ai Key Laboratory of Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention(Ministry of Health) Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Parasite Molecular BiologyWuxiJiangsu Province 214064People’s Republic of China National Institute of Parasitic Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and Preventionand Key Laboratory on Biology of Parasite and VectorMinistry of Healthand WHO Collaborating Center for MalariaSchistosomiasis and FilariasisShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China

Background:Schistosomiasis japonica is still endemic in the People’s Republic of China(***)in five provinces of lake and marshland regions and in two provinces of mountainous *** elucidated that individual and community perception,attitudes towards schistosomiasis,and hygiene behaviors were crucial factors for preventing *** study sought to assess the knowledge of,attitudes towards,and practices(KAP)relating to schistosomiasis in two subtypes of a mountainous region in Eryuan County,Yunnan Province,*** study’s aim is to make suggestions for establishing more specific and effective control measures for disease transmission and interruption in two subtypes of a mountainous region with low-level infection ***:A cross-sectional study of 3,000 inhabitants was carried out in the Yongle(plateau basin)and Xinzhuang(plateau canyon)communities of Eryuan County,Yunnan Province in November and December *** cluster random sampling was undertaken using a uniform set of quantitative questionnaires administered by trained *** was further supported with qualitative data from in-depth interviews(IDIs)conducted with ten farmers and ten *** participants were examined for schistosomiasis using both a serological test(indirect hemagglutination assay[IHA])and a stool examination(Kato-Katz).Results:The total schistosomiasis knowledge rate in Yongle(83.4%)was significantly lower than that in Xinzhuang(95.5%).In both communities,among the respondents aged 15 years or below,more than one third didn’t know the name,endemic areas,and animal reservoirs of *** majority of respondents in Eryuan acquired their schistosomiasis knowledge from doctors,followed by handouts and hearing from *** infection rate was once the highest in Yongle,but is now the highest in Xinzhuang,where there are more risk factors for schistosomiasis,such as frequently grazing cattle,digging vegetables or cutting gra

关键词： Schistosomiasis Knowledge Attitude Practice Eryuan P.R.China

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Estimation of disability weight for paragonimiasis:a systematic analysis

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2018年第1期7卷 1163-1171页

作者： Yun Feng Thomas Fürst Lu Liu guo-jing yang Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases 117 Meiyuan YangxiangWuxi CityJiangsu Province 214064People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of National Health and Family Planning Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention WuxiPeople’s Republic of China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology WuxiPeople’s Republic of China Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Swiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteSocinstrasse 57CH-4002 BaselSwitzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland

Background:Paragonimiasis,caused by helminths of the genus Paragonimus spp.,is a neglected tropical *** suffering from paragonimiasis is often misunderstood and its quantification by the disability weight of the disability-adjusted life years largely varies in different global burden of disease(GBD)*** paper is to systematically review clinical paragonimiasis cases and requantify the disability weight of human ***:A systematic analysis was conducted using articles from the following databases:PubMed,Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science,China National Knowledge Infrastructure,the Chinese scientific journal databases Wanfang Data and CQVIP,Africa Journal Online,and the System for Information on Grey Literature in *** terms were the combination of“paragonim*”with“clinical”or“infection”.Only articles fulfilling the following conditions were recruited for this study:the occurrence of clinical signs and symptoms of paragonimiasis in human beings were reported;diagnosis was confirmed;no comorbidities were reported;the reviewed clinical cases or epidemiological findings were not already included in any other *** information and frequencies of paragonimiasis outcomes from included articles using predefined data fields were extracted two times by two separate *** disability weights were selected mainly from the GBD 2004 and GBD 2013 *** and disability weights of paragonimiasis outcomes were modelled into a decision tree using the additive approach and multiplicative approach,*** Carlo simulations were run 5000 times for an uncertainty ***:The disability weight estimates of paragonimiasis were simulated with 5302 clinical cases from 80 general *** overall disability weight was estimated at 0.1927(median 0.1956)with a 95%uncertainty interval(UI)of 0.1632-0.2378 using the additive approach,and 0.1791(median 0.1816)with a 95%UI of 0.1530-

关键词： Paragonimiasis Disability weight Disease burden Disability-adjusted life years

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Inferring the potential risks of H7N9 infection by spatiotemporally characterizing bird migration and poultry distribution in eastern China

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2013年第1期2卷 54-62,53页

作者： Benyun Shi Shang Xia guo-jing yang Xiao-Nong Zhou Jiming Liu Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist UniversityWaterloo RoadKowloon TongHong Kong The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong National Institute of Parasitic Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionShanghai 200025China Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology MOHShanghai 200025China WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria Schistosomiasis and FilariasisShanghai 200025China

Background:In view of the rapid geographic spread and the increasing number of confirmed cases of novel influenza A(H7N9)virus infections in eastern China,we developed a diffusion model to spatiotemporally characterize the impacts of bird migration and poultry distribution on the geographic spread of H7N9 ***:Three types of infection risks were estimated for 12 weeks,from February 4 to April 28,2013,including(i)the risk caused by bird migration,(ii)the risk caused by poultry distribution,and(iii)the integrated risk caused by both bird migration and poultry *** achieve this,we first developed a method for estimating the likelihood of bird migration based on available environmental and meteorological ***,we adopted a computational mobility model to estimate poultry distribution based on annual poultry production and consumption of each province/***,the spatiotemporal risk maps were created based on the integrated impacts of both bird migration and poultry ***:In the study of risk estimation caused by bird migration,the likelihood matrix was estimated based on the 7-day temperature,from February 4 to April 28,*** was found the estimated migrant birds mainly appear in the southeastern provinces of Zhejiang,Shanghai and Jiangsu during Weeks 1 to 4,and Week 6,followed by appearing in central eastern provinces of Shandong,Hebei,Beijing,and Tianjin during Weeks 7 to 9,and finally in northeastern provinces of Liaoning,Jilin,and Heilongjiang during Weeks 10 to *** the study of risk caused by poultry distribution,poultry distribution matrix was created to show the probability of poultry *** spite of the fact that the majority of the initial infections were reported in Shanghai and Jiangsu,the relative risk of H7N9 infection estimated based on the poultry distribution model predicted that Jiangsu may have a slightly higher likelihood of H7N9 infection than those in Zhejiang and Shanghai,if we on

关键词： H7N9 poultry distribution

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The global epidemiology of clonorchiasis and its relation with cholangiocarcinoma

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2012年第1期1卷 20-30,19页

作者： Men-Bao Qian Ying-Dan Chen Song Liang guo-jing yang Xiao-Nong Zhou National Institute of Parasitic Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionWHO Collaborative Center for MalariaSchistosomiasis and FilariasisKey Laboratory of Parasite and Vector BiologyMinistry of HealthShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China Department of Environmental and Global Health College of Public Health and Health Professionsand Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleUSA Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases WuxiPeople’s Republic of China School of Public Health Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongPeople’s Republic of China

This paper reviews the epidemiological status and characteristics of clonorchiasis at global level and the etiological relationship between Clonorchis sinensis infection and cholangiocarcinoma(CCA).A conservative estimation was made that 15 million people were infected in the world in 2004,of which over 85%distributed in *** epidemiology of clonorchiasis is characterized by rising trend in its prevalence,variability among sexes and age,as well as endemicity in different *** data indicate that *** infection is carcinogenic to human,and it is predicted that nearly 5000 CCA cases attributed to *** infection may occur annually in the world decades later,with its overall odds ratio of *** is becoming one major public health problem in east Asia,and it is worthwhile to carry out further epidemiological studies.

关键词： Clonorchiasis Clonorchis sinensis Epidemiology Cholangiocarcinoma Odds ratio

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Research priorities in modeling the transmission risks of H7N9 bird flu

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2013年第1期2卷 137-142页

作者： Viroj Wiwanitkit Benyun Shi Shang Xia guo-jing yang Xiao-Nong Zhou Jiming Liu Wiwanitkit House 10160BangkhaeBangkokThailand Hainan Medical University Haikou 570100China Faculty of Medicine University of NisNis 18000Serbia Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist UniversityWaterloo RoadKowloon TongHong Kong The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong KongNew TerritoriesHong Kong National Institute of Parasitic Diseases Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionShanghai 200025China Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology MOHShanghai 200025China WHO Collaborating Center for Malaria Schistosomiasis and FilariasisShanghai 200025China

The epidemic of H7N9 bird flu in eastern China in early 2013 has caused much attention from researchers as well as public health *** issue on modeling the transmission risks is very interesting *** this article,this issue is debated and discussed in order to promote further researches on prediction and prevention of avian influenza viruses supported by better interdisciplinary datasets from the surveillance and response system.

关键词： H7N9 Bird flu Transmission Modeling Priorities

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Identifying key bird species and geographical hotspots of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in China

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2018年第1期7卷 1019-1029页

作者： Benyun Shi Xiao-Ming Zhan Jin-Xin Zheng Hongjun Qiu Dan Liang Yan-Ming Ye guo-jing yang yang Liu Jiming Liu School of Cyberspace Hangzhou Dianzi UniversityHangzhou 310018People’s Republic of China School of Computer Science and Technology Hangzhou Dianzi UniversityHangzhou 310018People’s Republic of China Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases Wuxi 214064People’s Republic of China Department of Epidemiology and Public Healthy Swiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteBaselSwitzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol Department of Ecology and School of Life SciencesSun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275People’s Republic of China Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist UniversityKowloon TongHong KongPeople’s Republic of China

Background:In China since the first human infection of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus was identified in 2013,it has caused serious public health concerns due to its wide spread and high mortality *** shows that bird migration plays an essential role in global spread of avian influenza ***,in this paper,we aim to identify key bird species and geographical hotspots that are relevant to the transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in ***:We first conducted phylogenetic analysis on 626 viral sequences of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus isolated in chicken,which were collected from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data(GISAID),to reveal geographical spread and molecular evolution of the virus in ***,we adopted the cross correlation function(CCF)to explore the relationship between the identified influenza A(H7N9)cases and the spatiotemporal distribution of migratory ***,the spatiotemporal distribution of bird species was generated based on bird observation data collected from China Bird Reports,which consists of 157272 observation records about 1145 bird ***,we employed a kernel density estimator to identify geographical hotspots of bird habitat/stopover that are relevant to the influenza A(H7N9)***:Phylogenetic analysis reveals the evolutionary and geographical patterns of influenza A(H7N9)infections,where cases in the same or nearby municipality/provinces are clustered together with small evolutionary ***,three epidemic waves in chicken along the East Asian-Australasian flyway in China are distinguished from the phylogenetic *** CCF analysis identifies possible migratory bird species that are relevant to the influenza A(H7N9)infections in Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,and Guangdong in China,where the six municipality/provinces account for 91.2%of the total number of isolated H7N9 cases in chicken in *** on the spatial distribution of identi

关键词： Avian influenza virus Bird migration Geographical hotspots Phylogenetic analysis Cross correlation function

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An integrated environmental improvement of marshlands:impact on control and elimination of schistosomiasis in marshland regions along the yangtze River,China

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2017年第1期6卷 624-633页

作者： Le-Ping Sun Wei Wang Yin-Ping Zuo Zheng-Qiu Zhang Qing-Biao Hong guo-jing yang Hong-Ru Zhu You-Sheng Liang Hai-Tao yang Key Laboratory of National Health and Family Planning Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention No.117 YangxiangMeiyuanWuxi CityJiangsu Province 214064China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasites and Vector Control Technology No.117 YangxiangMeiyuanWuxi CityJiangsu Province 214064China Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases No.117 YangxiangMeiyuanWuxi CityJiangsu Province 214064China yangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention No.36 Yanfu East RoadYangzhou CityJiangsu Province 225000China Yizheng County Center for Disease Control and Prevention NO.1 Jiankang RoadYangzhou CityJiangsu Province 211440China

Background:Schistosomiasis is a global snail-transmitted infectious disease of *** control had been achieved in China in 2015 after the control efforts for over 60 ***,the remaining core regions endemic for Schistosoma japonicum are mainly located in the marshland and lake regions along the yangtze River ***:During the period from 2001 through 2015,an integrated environmental improvement of the marshlands was carried out through the implementation of industrial,agricultural and resources development projects in Yizheng County along the yangtze *** infection in humans,livestock and snails was estimated by serology,stool examination,hatching technique and microscopy during the 15-year study period to evaluate the effect of the integrated environmental improvement on control and elimination of ***:A 0.05%overall rate of *** infection was observed in snails during the 15-year study period,and no infected snails were detected since *** overall prevalence of *** infection was 0.09%in humans during the study period,and no human infection was found since *** addition,only 13 bovines were identified with *** infection in 2003 during the 15-year study period,and since 2004,no infection was found in ***:The results of the present study demonstrate that the implementation of industrial,agricultural and water resources development projects,not only alters snail habitats in marshland regions,and promotes local economic development,which appears a win-to-win strategy to block the transmission of *** and accelerate socio-economic development along the yangtze River.

关键词： Schistosomiasis Oncomelania hupensis Environmental improvement Marshland regions yangtze River basin China

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Progress towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in PR China:a scoping review

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第2期12卷 19-35页

作者： Tianren Shen Susan Christina Welburn Long Sun guo-jing yang Key Laboratory of Tropical Translational Medicine of Ministry of Education The School of Tropical MedicineThe First Affiliated HospitalHainan Medical UniversityHaikou571199HainanPeople’s Republic of China Zhejiang University-University of Edinburgh Joint Institute Zhejiang UniversityInternational Campus718 East Haizhou RoadHaining314400People’s Republic of China Infection Medicine Deanery of Biomedical SciencesEdinburgh Medical SchoolCollege of Medicine and Veterinary MedicineThe University of Edinburgh1 George SquareEdinburghEH89JZScotlandUK Department of Infectious Diseases The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical UniversityHainan Medical UniversityHaikouHainanPeople’s Republic of China

Background Rabies continues to be a serious threat to global public health endangering people’s health and public health *** the People’s Republic of China,multi-sectoral and comprehensive prevention and control strategies have aimed to extensively curb human rabies ***,we examine the current state of rabies infection in China,explore strategic interventions put in place in response to WHO’s ambition of“Zero rabies deaths by 2030”and critically assess the constraints and feasibility of dog-mediated rabies elimination in *** This study analyzed and evaluated the process towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in China from five perspectives:namely,human,dog,policy,challenge,and ***-based data on progress of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China was derived from a number of sources;a literature search was undertaken using PubMed,Web of Science and CNKI databases,distribution data for human rabies cases as derived from the Data-center of the China Public Health Science and policy and document data were obtained from official websites of the relevant China ministries and *** The incidence of human rabies cases in China have shown a downward trend year-on-year since *** of a government-led,multi-sectoral“One Health”approach to combating rabies has driven down the total number of rabies deaths nationwide to around 200 in *** number of provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs)reporting human cases of rabies has also decreased to 21 in 2020,13 of which reported less than 10 ***,the number of outpatient visits seeking rabies post-exposure prophylaxis has risen dramatically over the past two decades,with demand being 15 times higher than it was *** remain however,significant gaps in rabies elimination outcomes across the different regions of *** date the target of achieving a canine rabies vaccination rate of>75%has not been *** challenges of rabies i

关键词： Rabies Lyssavirus China Elimination Dog Epidemics One Health Neglected Tropical Underreporting

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